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Predictions graded

Sergi Perez Contri #446Spain2Sebastian Gima #589Romania0

Sets 7-5 · 7-6Sun 18 Oct 2026, 08:00 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions1–614%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageSergi Perez Contri · 143 places

Sergi Perez Contri

Spain

Perez Contri, 28, is the 1.75m left-hander in this matchup. His recorded career-high ranking is No. 447 in July 2026; no verified preferred-surface declaration was found.

Current ranking: #446
Peak ranking: #447 · 2026
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 175 cm

Sebastian Gima

Romania

Gima is the Romanian left-hander in this matchup. He contested a run of clay-court events through the 2026 autumn and won the M25 title in Slobozia on 4 October 2026, the third singles title of his career. He is coached by Andrei Pavel and Adrian Ungur.

Current ranking: #589
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Oct 2026, 03:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Gima brings a five-win title run but nine matches in 13 days; Perez Contri is fresher but has lost 10 of 14 opening sets on clay.

Gima is the likelier winner. At 2.0 for the first set, the match and the second set, all three Gima prices hold up, the first set most clearly.

Context

A third professional title, won on Romanian clay, is the clearest marker of Gima's current level and the anchor for an 11-4 record across his last 15 matches. It gives a reader a concrete reason to treat him as a player performing above his No. 589 ranking rather than one merely surviving qualifying. The limit is the level of the evidence: an M25 title run against opponents outside the top 500 does not establish that he beats a No. 446 opponent on a Challenger court, and this is his first match at that level since the Slobozia final.
- Slobozia M25 singles title won was the third of Gima's career
- Title run covered five consecutive days, ending with Turcanu 6-3 2-6 7-6(5) and Boitan 6-3 6-4
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 03:13 · Europe/Bucharest
Gima's match volume is roughly three times Perez Contri's over the same fortnight, including five straight days of singles in Slobozia. In a qualifying draw that requires two wins to reach the main draw, that is the one measurable asymmetry between two players separated by 143 ranking places. The counterweight is that the load has produced results, with 11 wins in his last 15, so it reflects deep runs rather than a schedule forced on him by early exits. Neither recent record contains a retirement or medical timeout, so the difference is a workload observation rather than a known physical problem.
- Gima: five wins in five days to the Slobozia title between 30 September and
- Gima: Catania qualifying rounds on 11 and
- Perez Contri: Braga qualifying, then Maia qualifying on 11 and
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 03:13 · Europe/Bucharest
His second-set record is the part of his game that keeps matches alive: 8-6 across the same 14 clay matches.
Slow starts have been the pattern through this window, and Gima has won nine of his own 14 first sets on clay. The counterweight is Perez Contri's 8-6 second-set record, which is why eight of his 14 clay matches reached a third set.
- 14 clay matches, 17 July 2026 to 12 October 2026: first sets 4 won, 10 lost
- First sets averaged 4.1 games won to 6.0 lost
- Five of the 14 first sets reached a tiebreak
Gima's set-one games average is 5.3 to 4.1, so he tends to lead early rather than trade long opening sets.
Compact, straight-set wins have been the norm, which points towards a shorter match than Perez Contri's 25.8-game, 2.57-set average suggests. The limit is a 14-match sample and an opponent whose own sets often stay close.
- 14 clay matches, 17 September 2026 to 12 October 2026: 22.5 total games per match
- Sets per match averaged 2.43, with six of the 14 finished 2-0
- Only three of the 14 matches included a tiebreak

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Gima has won far more matches and a much larger share of games and points on clay, while Perez Contri has lost four of his last six.
- Gima is 11-4 on clay in this window with 55.5% of games (193/348) and 52.4% of points won.
- Perez Contri is 7-7 on clay over 14 matches with no serve or return metrics supplied.
- Gima won the Slobozia M25 title and has played nine matches in 13 days; Perez Contri has played three in the same span.
- Perez Contri lost his most recent match to world No. 334 in three sets.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSebastian GimaEstimated chance57%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gima's shorter matches pull the combined game count toward the under side of the line.
- Perez Contri's clay matches average 25.8 total games; Gima's average 22.5.
- Their sets average 10.0 and 9.3 games respectively.
- Gima's matches average 2.43 sets, with six of 14 finishing 2-0.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 24.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two first-set averages sit just above the line, helped by how often Perez Contri's opening sets stay tight.
- Perez Contri's first sets average 10.1 total games.
- Gima's first sets average 9.4 total games.
- Five of Perez Contri's 14 first sets went to a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Perez Contri has lost 10 of 14 opening sets on clay while Gima has won 9 of 14.
- Gima has won 9 of 14 first sets on clay, averaging 5.3 games to 4.1.
- Perez Contri has won only 4 of 14 first sets, averaging 4.1 games to 6.0.
- Perez Contri's first sets produced five tiebreaks, showing how often they stayed close before slipping away.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostSebastian GimaEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' clay matches split close to evenly on three-set outcomes, with Perez Contri's slightly higher.
- Perez Contri's clay matches went to a third set eight times in 14.
- Gima's went to a third set six times in 14.
- Average sets per match are 2.57 for Perez Contri and 2.43 for Gima.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Gima's second-set record is slightly better than Perez Contri's and sits alongside a stronger overall game share.
- Gima has won 9 of 14 second sets on clay, averaging 4.9 games to 4.4.
- Perez Contri has won 8 of 14 second sets.
- Gima holds 55.5% of games across his 15 clay matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostSebastian GimaEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gima's sets have usually been settled before a tiebreak, which keeps the no side ahead.
- Gima's 14 clay matches produced only three tiebreaks.
- Perez Contri's 14 produced nine.
- Gima's first sets averaged 9.4 games in total.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance56%

Sergi Perez Contri

8W 7L

6-3 2-6 7-6(1)#334Florian Broska

2-6 6-3 6-1#649Tiago Cacao

7-6(6) 1-6 6-4#892Nicolas Barrientos

6-7(3) 6-4 6-4#563Alexander Ritschard

7-6(4) 7-6(4)#563Alexander Ritschard

2-6 7-6(0) 6-2#633Pedro Rodenas

6-4 5-7 6-4#784Carles Hernandez

5-1 ret.#792Carles Cordoba

7-6(2) 6-4#650Ignacio Parisca

6-3 6-4#563Alexander Ritschard

3-6 6-4 7-6(3)#638Carlos Lopez Montagud

2-6 6-1 6-3—Bernardo Munk Mesa

7-6(2) 6-1—Pablo Aunion

6-2 7-6(9)#650Ignacio Parisca

6-2 6-4#686Pablo Martinez Gomez

Sebastian Gima

11W 4L

7-6(7) 6-2#542Pedro Vives Marcos

6-2 3-6 6-3#496Maximus Jones

6-4 6-7(1) 6-2#878Iannis Miletich

6-4 6-2—Timo Rosenkranz Koenig

6-3 6-4#517Adrian Boitan

6-3 2-6 7-6(5)#691Radu David Turcanu

3-6 6-0 6-1#828Jannik Opitz

6-3 6-4#879Petros Tsitsipas

6-4 6-4#560Sebastian Dominko

6-4 4-6 6-3#343Jonas Forejtek

6-3 4-6 6-3#471Filip Misolic

6-1 6-3—Aleksandar Tolev

6-1 5-7 10-4#862Denys Klok

6-3 6-2#708Kristijan Juhas

6-3 6-4—Jovan Bjelobrk

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SCSergi Perez ContriContri

Last 15

1–7

9 core stats · 1 even

Sebastian GimaGimaSG

Sebastian Gima carries the stronger recent form — Sergi Perez Contri's route runs through return.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In65.9%—65.2%

1st Serve Won60.6%+7.6pp68.2%

2nd Serve Won48.0%+1.6pp49.6%

Aces / Match0.7+0.81.5

Double Faults / Match5.13.0 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won45.2%+1.4pp43.8%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted41.7%+4.4pp46.1%

Break Pts Saved50.0%+7.0pp57.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.5%+1.9pp52.4%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

65.9%1st Serve In—65.2%

60.6%1st Serve Won+7.6pp68.2%

48.0%2nd Serve Won+1.6pp49.6%

0.7Aces / Match+0.81.5

5.1Double Faults / Match3.0 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

45.2%Return Pts Won+1.4pp43.8%

Pressure · 0–2

41.7%Break Pts Converted+4.4pp46.1%

50.0%Break Pts Saved+7.0pp57.0%

Points · 0–1

50.5%Total Pts Won+1.9pp52.4%