ChinaGuangzhou - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Omar Jasika #422Australia2Hiroki Moriya #505Japan0

Sets 6-2 · 6-3Sun 18 Oct 2026, 04:30 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions8–189%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageOmar Jasika · 83 places

Omar Jasika

Australia

Jasika, 29, is the left-hander in this matchup. His recorded professional match volume has been predominantly on hard courts.

Current ranking: #422
Peak ranking: #155 · 2024
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Hiroki Moriya

Japan

Moriya, 35, is a right-hander whose preferred surface is hard. His career-high singles ranking was No. 143 in January 2015.

Current ranking: #505
Peak ranking: #143 · 2015
Current age: 35
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 168 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Oct 2026, 22:09 · Europe/Bucharest

In this Guangzhou qualifying rematch, Jasika's recent form and a 6-4 6-4 win over Moriya three weeks ago point one way; Moriya's serve numbers point the other.

Jasika is the likelier winner, probably in straight sets, but 1.44 for the match and 1.5 for each of the first two sets ask for more than the evidence justifies. No reviewed price is worthwhile.

Context

Recovery is the one concrete physical variable separating them: Jasika has played six matches between 6 and, including four in five days at Wuning and a three-set Jinan qualifier, while Moriya has played twice in the same period. Qualifying rounds at a 75-level event are scheduled back-to-back, so the winner here is likely to be on court again the following day regardless. That does not make Moriya the fresher player in any decisive sense, because eleven days without a match is its own uncertainty, but it does mean Jasika's recent load rather than his ranking is the thing to watch.
- Jasika lost 5-7 7-6(4) 6-4 to Liam Draxl in Jinan qualifying
- Jasika played six matches between 6 and
- Moriya lost 6-2 6-3 to Keisuke Saitoh on 7 October
- Moriya has played twice since 29 September
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 22:07 · Europe/Bucharest
That semi-final is the deepest run in Jasika's recorded recent form and came on the same Chinese hard courts that host this qualifying draw, which is why a No. 422 ranking understates how he has been playing. He took three matches in five days there, including a qualifying win over No. 234 Marat Sharipov and a 6-3 6-2 quarter-final, and lost the semi-final only after dropping a first-set tie-break. The same week also explains the heavy schedule he carried into Jinan, so the form and the accumulated load are one story rather than two.
- Jasika beat Derepasko 6-3 6-2
- Kachmazov won the semi-final 7-6(4) 6-3
- Sharipov retired at 6-3 3-0 in the qualifying round
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 22:07 · Europe/Bucharest
Moriya's first sets have been weaker than his second sets, so a fast Jasika start would matter. A one-set lead should not be read as control. The split comes from a 15-match sample and is a pattern, not a guarantee.
- 15 hard-court matches from 19 July to 7 October.
- First sets: 6 wins, 9 losses; 8.6 games per first set; no first-set tiebreaks.
- Second sets: 8 wins, 7 losses; 9.9 games per second set; four second-set tiebreaks.
The meeting was itself a Chinese Challenger qualifying match, so both players arrive with a specific and recent read on the other rather than scouting notes from an older event. One break decided each set of that 6-4 6-4 result, a margin narrow enough that it says little about how a fresh best-of-three will run. Three weeks is also long enough for the surrounding form to have moved in opposite directions, since Jasika has played seven matches in the meantime and Moriya two.
- The Jingshan qualifying meeting finished 6-4 6-4
- One break decided each set of that match
- Jasika has played seven matches since; Moriya has played two
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 22:07 · Europe/BucharestTennisTemple head-to-headen.tennistemple.com · 29 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Omar Jasika

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

−6.7ppshort

Jasika has won more first sets and took the opening set in their recent meeting.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Omar Jasika

1.44fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69.4%

−9.4ppshort

Jasika has the better recent hard-court record and won their meeting in straight sets three weeks ago.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Omar Jasika

1.50fair 1.69

BetBugs 59% · Market 66.7%

−7.7ppshort

Jasika has been stronger in second sets and won the second set in their meeting.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Jasika has the better recent hard-court record and won their meeting in straight sets three weeks ago.
- Hard-court record 8-5 in 13 matches.
- Set-one record 8-5; set-two record 9-4.
- Beat Moriya 6-4 6-4 on 29 September.
- Seven of his eight wins were in straight sets.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonOmar JasikaEstimated chance60%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Moriya's short first sets pull the combined expectation below the line.
- Moriya's first sets average 8.6 games.
- Jasika's first sets average 9.8 games.
- Moriya has no first-set tiebreaks in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The set-level averages and the 20-game meeting point slightly below the line.
- Jasika's matches average 21.4 games; Moriya's 21.1.
- Their meeting had 20 games.
- Jasika's first two sets average 19.0 games; Moriya's 18.5.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Moriya's longer second sets and tiebreak frequency make over 9.5 slightly more likely.
- Moriya's second sets average 9.9 games.
- Jasika's second sets average 9.2 games.
- Moriya has four second-set tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results dominate both players' recent hard-court records.
- Jasika: 10 straight-set matches in 13.
- Moriya: 11 in 15.
- Combined: 21 of 28.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Jasika has won more first sets and took the opening set in their recent meeting.
- Set-one record 8-5 on hard courts.
- Moriya's set-one record 6-9.
- Head-to-head first set: Jasika 6-4.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonOmar JasikaEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Jasika has been stronger in second sets and won the second set in their meeting.
- Set-two record 9-4 on hard courts.
- Moriya's set-two record 8-7.
- Head-to-head second set: Jasika 6-4.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonOmar JasikaEstimated chance59%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their recent hard-court matches have avoided a tiebreak, including their meeting.
- Combined: 8 tiebreak matches in 28 player-matches.
- Head-to-head: no tiebreak.
- Jasika 3 in 13; Moriya 5 in 15.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%

Omar Jasika

9W 6L

5-7 7-6(4) 6-4#219Liam Draxl

6-1 6-2#278Petr Bar Biryukov

7-6(4) 6-3#525Alibek Kachmazov

6-3 6-2#662Timofei Derepasko

6-3 3-0 ret.#234Marat Sharipov (RUS)

4-6 6-3 7-5#869Martin Borisiouk

6-2 3-6 6-3#112Dane Sweeny

6-4 6-4#505Hiroki Moriya

6-3 6-1#595Chase Ferguson

6-4 6-3#170Alex Bolt

6-7(6) 6-2 1-0 ret.#455Luca Castelnuovo

6-4 6-4#234Marat Sharipov (RUS)

6-2 7-5#221Rio Noguchi

6-2 6-1#424Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

7-6(7) 6-3#893Yaojie Zeng

Hiroki Moriya

7W 8L

6-2 6-3#550Keisuke Saitoh

3-6 7-6(5) 6-3#202Keegan Smith

6-4 6-4#422Omar Jasika

6-0 6-4—Jilong Huang

6-4 5-7 6-3#462Blake Ellis

5-7 7-5 7-6(3)#393Yuta Shimizu

6-3 7-6(4)#496Maximus Jones

4-6 6-1 6-2#631Dominik Palan

6-1 7-6(2)#397Kasidit Samrej

6-1 6-1#670S D Prajwal Dev

6-1 6-3#865Grigoriy Lomakin

6-2 6-2#364Tung-Lin Wu

6-3 6-1#826Kousuke Ogura

6-2 6-0#260Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-3 7-6(9)#864Patrick Maloney

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

OJOmar JasikaJasika

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Hiroki MoriyaMoriyaHM

Omar Jasika carries the stronger recent form — Hiroki Moriya's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In75.9%+14.4pp61.5%

1st Serve Won67.8%+0.9pp68.7%

2nd Serve Won56.5%+4.2pp52.3%

Aces / Match1.3+1.52.8

Double Faults / Match1.91.4 fewer3.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won39.0%+1.3pp40.3%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted52.4%+7.6pp44.8%

Break Pts Saved62.3%+4.1pp58.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.1%+1.2pp50.9%

Serve · 3–2

75.9%1st Serve In+14.4pp61.5%

67.8%1st Serve Won+0.9pp68.7%

56.5%2nd Serve Won+4.2pp52.3%

1.3Aces / Match+1.52.8

1.9Double Faults / Match1.4 fewer3.3

Return · 0–1

39.0%Return Pts Won+1.3pp40.3%

Pressure · 2–0

52.4%Break Pts Converted+7.6pp44.8%

62.3%Break Pts Saved+4.1pp58.2%

Points · 1–0

52.1%Total Pts Won+1.2pp50.9%