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Predictions graded

Matteo Sciahbasi #886Italy0Daniel Siniakov #519Czechia2

Sets 1-6 · 0-3Sun 18 Oct 2026, 08:00 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDaniel Siniakov · 367 places

Matteo Sciahbasi

Italy

Italian player competing on the ITF M25 circuit with no singles ranking listed in the match data. In September 2026 he reached the quarterfinals at Santa Margherita di Pula, beating seventh seed Lorenzo Angelini before losing to Daniele Rapagnetta.

Current ranking: #886
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Daniel Siniakov

Czechia

Born January 15, 2003. Public profile sources list a career-high singles ranking of No. 438 on July 13, 2026 and identify hard court as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #519
Peak ranking: #438 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Oct 2026, 03:09 · Europe/Bucharest

A 367-place ranking gap says Siniakov; two months of clay results say Sciahbasi.

The 19-year-old is 10-5 on clay since late August against 6-9 for his higher-ranked opponent, and his return numbers are the stronger half of the matchup. Sciahbasi winning is the likelier result, and the 2.60 quoted on him is the one price worth taking; 1.44 on Siniakov asks far too much.

Context

Catania is the most recent Challenger-level reading on Siniakov: he survived a tight qualifying final against a compatriot ranked outside the top 1,000 by taking a third-set tiebreak, then was beaten in straight sets by a top-320 wildcard within 24 hours. That sequence places his current level about one round short of main-draw survival on Italian clay, which is the closest available benchmark for a qualifying round against an opponent ranked No. 886. The limit is that two matches in one week cannot describe his season, and the straight-set defeat came against an opponent considerably stronger than Sciahbasi.
- Siniakov beat Jakub Vrba 7-5 3-6 7-6(2) in the final qualifying round at Catania
- Vrba was ranked outside the top 1,000 at the time
- Siniakov lost 6-3 6-2 to Carlo Alberto Caniato, ranked No. 318 and holding a main-draw wildcard,
- Siniakov entered the Firenze Challenger 50 qualifying draw the following week
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 03:08 · Europe/Bucharest
Siniakov, at No. 519, has spent much of his clay season in long matches rather than quick ones.
Siniakov won 2-0 four times and lost 0-2 five times across 15 clay matches from 24 July to 13 October 2026, yet four more defeats came in three sets. His 23.9 games per match is nearly three above Sciahbasi's 20.9, from a 21 August to 13 October sample of the same size. That makes a quick two-set finish less likely than Sciahbasi's own record suggests.
- Siniakov's 15 completed clay matches from 24 July to 13 October 2026 include two 2-1 wins and four 1-2 losses
- Siniakov's total games average is 23.9 per match in that sample
- Sciahbasi's total games average is 20.9 across 15 clay matches from 21 August to 13 October 2026
Sciahbasi's clay record improves sharply once the first set is gone.
Across 15 clay matches from 21 August to 13 October 2026, Sciahbasi wins 5.4 games and loses 4.1 in second sets, against 5.2 and 4.6 in first sets. Siniakov splits both sets 7-8, so the separation between them appears after the opener. A slow start would not settle the match, but it is the likeliest route to a third set.
- Sciahbasi is 11-4 in second sets across 15 completed clay matches from 21 August to 13 October 2026
- Sciahbasi averages 5.4 games won and 4.1 lost in second sets
- Sciahbasi's first-set record in the same sample is 8-7
Siniakov's serve is the part of his game that has held up on clay.
Siniakov landed 784 of 1,152 first serves (68.1%) in 15 clay matches from 24 July to 13 October 2026 and saved 59.7% of the break points he faced. The return side is thinner: 41% of return points won and 50.2% of total points. Sciahbasi wins 46% of return points over a same-size clay sample, five percentage points more, so Siniakov has to hold comfortably to stay ahead.
- Siniakov landed 784 of 1,152 first serves (68.1%) across 15 clay matches from 24 July to 13 October 2026
- Siniakov won 66.2% of first-serve points and 41% of return points in that sample
- Siniakov won 50.2% of total points across the 15 matches

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Sciahbasi has the better clay results and return numbers, which offsets the lower ranking.
- Sciahbasi is 10-5 on clay over his last 15 completed matches; Siniakov is 6-9
- Sciahbasi won 52.2% of total points and 46% of return points on clay
- Siniakov is ranked 519, Sciahbasi 886, a 367-place gap
- Sciahbasi's clay scorelines include eight 2-0 wins
BetBugs · Match Winnernot gradableMatteo SciahbasiEstimated chance52%

Games0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets average about ten games, so more than nine is the more common outcome.
- Sciahbasi's first sets average 9.8 games
- Siniakov's first sets average 10.4 games
- Sciahbasi had two first-set tiebreaks in 15; Siniakov three
BetBugs · Set 1 Total Gamesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Siniakov's matches run long, and his set scores are usually close enough to push the total past this line.
- Siniakov averages 23.9 total games per clay match; Sciahbasi 20.9
- Siniakov's set-one games average 10.4, set two 9.4
- Sciahbasi's set-one games average 9.8, set two 9.5
BetBugs · Total Gamesnot gradableOver 22.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-set totals sit right around ten games for both players.
- Sciahbasi's second sets average 9.5 games
- Siniakov's second sets average 9.4 games
- Three second-set tiebreaks between them in 30 sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total Gamesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of Sciahbasi's clay results end in two sets, which makes a short match the more likely outcome.
- Sciahbasi has won 2-0 eight times and lost 0-2 four times on clay
- Sciahbasi averages 2.2 sets per match
- Siniakov has five 0-2 losses in 15 clay matches
BetBugs · Total Setsnot gradableUnder 2.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sciahbasi's second-set record on clay is clearly stronger than Siniakov's.
- Sciahbasi is 11-4 in second sets on clay
- Sciahbasi averages 5.4 games won and 4.1 lost in second sets
- Siniakov is 7-8 in second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Winnernot gradableMatteo SciahbasiEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sciahbasi has the slightly better first-set record and game margin on clay.
- Sciahbasi is 8-7 in first sets on clay; Siniakov is 7-8
- Sciahbasi averages 5.2 games won and 4.6 lost in first sets
- Siniakov averages 5.1 games won and 5.3 lost in first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Winnernot gradableMatteo SciahbasiEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks appear in fewer than half of their clay matches, so no tiebreak is the likelier outcome.
- Eight tiebreaks total across 30 sets between them
- Sciahbasi won 2-0 eight times on clay
- Siniakov won 2-0 four times on clay
BetBugs · Tiebreak in Matchnot gradableNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace average sits below five, and Sciahbasi in particular rarely serves many.
- Sciahbasi averages 1.5 aces per match
- Siniakov averages 2.8 aces per match
- Sciahbasi's clay matches average 121.5 minutes, limiting serve dominance
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player's double-fault rate alone gets near eight, so the combined figure usually stays lower.
- Sciahbasi averages 3.1 double faults per match
- Siniakov averages 4.0 double faults per match
- Siniakov lands 68.1% of first serves, reducing second-serve pressure
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance57%

Matteo Sciahbasi

10W 5L

7-6(4) 4-6 6-4#700Giorgio Tabacco

6-2 6-3—Nicolas Ifi

6-1 7-5—Matteo Vavassori

6-4 6-2#348Laurent Lokoli

7-5 6-3#382Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

6-3 6-3#629Daniele Rapagnetta

6-3 7-6(5)#556Lorenzo Angelini

3-6 6-3 6-1—Nikodije Trivunac

7-6(8) 6-4—Lorenzo Comino

3-6 6-2 6-1#562Lorenzo Carboni

6-3 6-2—Cosimo Banti

6-4 6-3—Niccolo Dessi

6-3 7-6(0)#878Iannis Miletich

6-4 6-0#488Dragos Nicolae Madaras

6-4 6-4—Tudor Batin

Daniel Siniakov

6W 9L

6-3 6-2#318Carlo Alberto Caniato

7-5 3-6 7-6(2)—Jakub Vrba

6-3 6-2—Paolo Gabriele Marino

5-7 6-3 6-4#619Yanaki Milev

1-6 7-5 6-2#629Daniele Rapagnetta

6-4 7-5#172Vitaliy Sachko

6-2 6-4#458Oleg Prihodko

7-6(6) 6-3#415Niels Visker

7-6(2) 3-6 7-6(10)#313Georgii Kravchenko

7-6(5) 7-6(3)#613Kai Wehnelt

6-3 6-4#456Oleksii Krutykh

6-4 6-4#690Tim Handel

5-7 6-3 6-2#840William Rejchtman Vinciguerra

6-3 6-0—Jonas Kucera

6-4 1-6 6-3#301Raphael Perot

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MSMatteo SciahbasiSciahbasi

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Daniel SiniakovSiniakovDS

Matteo Sciahbasi carries the stronger recent form — Daniel Siniakov's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In13/15 · 15/1562.9%+5.2pp68.1%

1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/1565.3%+0.9pp66.2%

2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/1548.4%+3.3pp45.1%

Aces / Match13/15 · 15/151.5+1.32.8

Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/153.10.9 fewer4.0

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/1546.0%+5.0pp41.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/1547.8%+2.5pp45.3%

Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/1548.8%+10.9pp59.7%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/1552.2%+2.0pp50.2%

Serve · 2–3

62.9%1st Serve In13/15 · 15/15+5.2pp68.1%

65.3%1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+0.9pp66.2%

48.4%2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+3.3pp45.1%

1.5Aces / Match13/15 · 15/15+1.32.8

3.1Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/150.9 fewer4.0

Return · 1–0

46.0%Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+5.0pp41.0%

Pressure · 1–1

47.8%Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/15+2.5pp45.3%

48.8%Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/15+10.9pp59.7%

Points · 1–0

52.2%Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+2.0pp50.2%