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Predictions graded

Albert Pedrico Kravtsov #868Spain2Daniil Ostapenkov #529Belarus0

Sets 7-6 · 7-5Sun 18 Oct 2026, 21:15 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions2–722%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDaniil Ostapenkov · 339 places

Albert Pedrico Kravtsov

Spain

Spanish right-hander with a one-handed backhand who plays college tennis at TCU in Fort Worth, where he is ranked No. 93 in college singles. His tour ranking of No. 868 reflects a sparse schedule; his previous tour-level match was in early August 2026.

Current ranking: #868
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Daniil Ostapenkov

Belarus

Listed at No. 556 in the supplied player data and plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand. Reliable public age and career-high details were not available from the required research.

Current ranking: #529
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Oct 2026, 15:42 · Europe/Bucharest

One match, one main-draw place in Fort Worth: a college wild card ranked No. 868 against the 12th qualifying seed at No.

529. Ostapenkov's Challenger main-draw win in Columbus makes him the likelier winner, though Pedrico Kravtsov has won 8 of 13 hard-court first sets and arrives match-sharp from college play. At 1.70, Ostapenkov is the one reviewed price worth taking; Pedrico Kravtsov at 2.05 does not support an upset.

Context

The home wild card has started matches well more often than he has finished them.
His opening sets averaged 5.38 games won to 3.54 lost, with only one first-set tiebreak in the 13 matches. Ostapenkov has been level at 7-7 in first sets over 14 hard-court matches, so the favourite's edge is less obvious in the opening set than in the overall ranking. That gives Pedrico Kravtsov a realistic route to an early lead.
- 8 first-set wins and 5 first-set losses across 13 completed hard-court matches, 17 September 2025 to 6 August 2026
- 6 wins and 7 losses in the same 13 matches
- First sets averaged 5.38 games won and 3.54 games lost, with 1 first-set tiebreak
The 279-place ranking gap is written into how each player entered: Ostapenkov's position earned him the 12th qualifying seeding, Pedrico Kravtsov needed a wild card into the same 32-player field. Seeding in qualifying only keeps him away from other seeds in the first round, so the line describes entry status rather than any on-court advantage in this match. What both share is the single main-draw place at stake in one match, which removes any margin for a slow start on 18 October. The counterpoint is that the two have been competing at different levels for the past month, so the ranking gap is not a like-for-like form comparison.
- Pedrico Kravtsov is listed on a wild card and Ostapenkov as the No. 12 seed in the Fort Worth qualifying draw
- The qualifying match is scheduled for 18 October 2026 at 2:20pm on Court V5
- Ostapenkov is listed at World No. 529, Pedrico Kravtsov at No. 868
- The event is a Challenger 75, with qualifying and main-draw lists issued
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 15:40 · Europe/BucharestScoreGo match listingscorego-app.com · 17 Oct 2026tennis.com Fort Worth Challenger match pagewww.tennis.com · 17 Oct 2026
A ten-week gap separates his 6 August tour match from this qualifying opener, and the competitive tennis in between was college-level in Texas, ending with a regional quarterfinal a week before Fort Worth. That matters because his No. 868 ranking is a record of intermittent Challenger and ITF appearances rather than a settled tour schedule, and a one-match wild card leaves him no second chance. The useful counterpoint is that he was not outclassed in that last college match: he lost the first set only in a tiebreak before going down 6-1 in the second. College form does not translate directly to a Challenger qualifier, but it does mean he arrives match-sharp at a venue in his college city.
- Albert Pedrico Kravtsov is listed as a TCU player ranked No. 93 in college singles
- A No. 93 Albert Pedrico (TCU) beat Andrew Delgado 7-5 6-1
- Niksa Arsic beat him 7-6(5) 6-1 in the ITA Texas Regional Championship and advanced to the semifinals
- His previous tour-level match was a 7-6(2) 6-4 loss to Oliver Tarvet on 6 August 2026
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 15:40 · Europe/Bucharest
Qualifying and then winning a main-draw match in Columbus is the clearest recent evidence of where Ostapenkov's level sits, and it came at the same Challenger tier he is trying to re-enter in Fort Worth. Two weeks separate the two events, so there is no workload disadvantage to weigh against it. The limitation is the manner of the exit: a 6-1 7-5 loss to Shelbayh ended the run at the second-round stage, which frames the Columbus week as a qualifying-and-early-round result rather than a deeper breakthrough. It also means his only recent look at this standard of opponent came in a losing match.
- Ostapenkov won three matches in Columbus, qualifying for the main draw before beating Raphael Perot 1-6 6-3 6-4
- He then lost 6-1 7-5 to Abdullah Shelbayh on 1 October 2026
- Shelbayh had already reached the second round and was awaiting the Perot-Ostapenkov winner
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 15:40 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Ostapenkov is higher ranked, more active at Challenger level and has a recent main-draw win, while Pedrico Kravtsov is a college wild card with little recent tour play.
- Ranked 529 against 868 and seeded 12th in Fort Worth qualifying, while Pedrico Kravtsov enters on a wild card.
- Won 8 of 14 completed hard-court matches in the supplied sample, including a Challenger main-draw win over Raphael Perot in Columbus in late September.
- Hard-court set evidence shows 7 first-set wins and 7 second-set wins from 14 matches.
- Pedrico Kravtsov's latest listed tour match was a 7-6(2) 6-4 loss to Oliver Tarvet on 6 August.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDaniil OstapenkovEstimated chance66%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches average more than 21.5 games, and Ostapenkov has a high tiebreak rate.
- Pedrico Kravtsov's hard-court matches average 21.8 total games; Ostapenkov's average 22.2.
- Pedrico Kravtsov's 13 hard-court matches included five three-set matches.
- Ostapenkov's 14 hard-court matches included four three-set matches.
- Ostapenkov's matches included six tiebreaks, which add games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined second-set average is just below the line, and tiebreaks have been uncommon.
- Pedrico Kravtsov's second sets average 9.08 total games on hard courts.
- Ostapenkov's second sets average 9.5 total games.
- Pedrico Kravtsov had two second-set tiebreaks in 13 matches; Ostapenkov had two in 14.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Pedrico Kravtsov's first sets average below 9.5 games, and first-set tiebreaks have been uncommon for him.
- Pedrico Kravtsov's first sets average 8.92 total games on hard courts.
- Ostapenkov's first sets average 9.93 total games.
- One of Pedrico Kravtsov's 13 hard-court matches had a first-set tiebreak; four of Ostapenkov's 14 did.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results are the more common outcome for both players in the supplied hard-court sample.
- Eight of Pedrico Kravtsov's 13 hard-court matches finished in two sets.
- Ten of Ostapenkov's 14 hard-court matches finished in two sets.
- Pedrico Kravtsov's hard-court matches average 2.38 sets; Ostapenkov's average 2.29.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
His higher ranking and slightly better second-set game margin give him a small edge in a close set.
- Won 7 of 14 second sets on hard courts, averaging 5.0 games won and 4.5 lost.
- Pedrico Kravtsov won 7 of 13 second sets, averaging 4.69 games won and 4.38 lost.
- Ostapenkov is ranked 529 against 868.
- Ostapenkov had two second-set tiebreaks in 14 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostDaniil OstapenkovEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ostapenkov's ranking and recent level give him a narrow edge, but his first-set record is only level.
- Won 7 of 14 first sets on hard courts.
- Ranked 529 against 868 and seeded 12th in qualifying.
- Pedrico Kravtsov won 8 of 13 first sets.
- Ostapenkov had four first-set tiebreaks in 14 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostDaniil OstapenkovEstimated chance54%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most hard-court matches for both players finished without a tiebreak.
- Pedrico Kravtsov had no tiebreak in 9 of 13 hard-court matches.
- Ostapenkov had no tiebreak in 8 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Ostapenkov had six matches with a tiebreak in 14.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance60%

Albert Pedrico Kravtsov

7W 8L

7-6(2) 6-4#307Oliver Tarvet

6-3 6-2#1391Ronald Hohmann

4-6 6-1 7-6(4)#463Emile Hudd

6-4 4-6 6-2#513Reda Bennani

6-7(2) 7-6(1) 6-4#784Carles Hernandez

2-6 6-2 6-3#574Iliyan Radulov

6-4 7-5#394Lui Maxted

6-1 6-1—Tomas Pinho

6-1 6-1—Luiz Felipe Silva

6-0 6-1—Nuno Pinheiro

3-6 6-3 7-5#555John Echeverria

6-4 6-7(4) 6-3#391Dan Added

6-4 6-2#897Sebastian Eriksson

4-6 7-6(5) 6-0—Jakub Vrba

6-1 6-3—Alejandro Arcila

Daniil Ostapenkov

8W 7L

6-1 7-5#291Abedallah Shelbayh

1-6 6-3 6-4#301Raphael Perot

6-2 7-6(3)#473Quinn Vandecasteele

7-6(4) 6-1—Ilija Palavestra

6-3 6-1#362Timo Legout

7-5 4-6 6-3#473Quinn Vandecasteele

6-3 6-4#362Timo Legout

6-2 6-2—Gus Grumet

3-1 ret.#885Egor Agafonov

6-7(4) 7-6(6) 6-1#302Florent Bax

3-6 6-3 7-6(1)#457Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

7-6(6) 6-3#481Koki Matsuda

7-6(3) 6-1#684Yurii Dzhavakian

6-2 6-4#365Tiago Torres

6-4 6-3#394Lui Maxted

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AKAlbert Pedrico KravtsovKravtsov

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Daniil OstapenkovOstapenkovDO

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In13/15 · 15/1568.9%+14.1pp54.8%

1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/1563.4%+6.5pp69.9%

2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/1546.9%+3.8pp50.7%

Aces / Match13/15 · 15/152.5+3.15.6

Double Faults / Match12/15 · 15/152.31.6 fewer3.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/1542.2%+3.4pp38.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/1546.5%+2.3pp44.2%

Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/1545.1%+6.5pp51.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/1550.1%—50.2%

Serve · 2–3

68.9%1st Serve In13/15 · 15/15+14.1pp54.8%

63.4%1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+6.5pp69.9%

46.9%2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+3.8pp50.7%

2.5Aces / Match13/15 · 15/15+3.15.6

2.3Double Faults / Match12/15 · 15/151.6 fewer3.9

Return · 1–0

42.2%Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+3.4pp38.8%

Pressure · 1–1

46.5%Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/15+2.3pp44.2%

45.1%Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/15+6.5pp51.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.1%Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/15—50.2%