KazakhstanATP AlmatyFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Gabriel Diallo #121Canada2Harold Mayot #186France0

Sets 7-6 · 6-2Sat 17 Oct 2026, 06:00 Predictions gradedQ1I.hard

Predictions2–722%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageGabriel Diallo · 65 places

Gabriel Diallo

Canada

Ranked No. 121 and coached by Martin Laurendeau. Listed at 203cm, he plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand and is entered in the Almaty Open qualifying draw.

Current ranking: #121
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 203 cm

Harold Mayot

France

Mayot reached career-high No. 103 in October 2024. ATP lists hard as his favorite surface; he was the 2020 Australian Open boys' singles champion and a junior world No. 1.

Current ranking: #186
Peak ranking: #103 · 2024
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Oct 2026, 22:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Gabriel Diallo returns after ten weeks out, while Harold Mayot brings 10 wins from 13 hard-court matches and a reported leg and hip issue from an early-October retirement.

Mayot is the likelier winner and the likelier man to take the opening set. Mayot to win the opening set at 1.9 and Mayot to win the match at 1.95 both offer value; Diallo at 1.85 does not.

Context

Diallo's most recent appearance ended in retirement against a top-25 opponent on 4 August, and he then skipped the Shanghai Masters despite holding a main-draw wildcard, so the Almaty match is his first competition in about ten weeks. A return after that gap carries uncertain match sharpness and physical durability, and there is no reported practice or exhibition result to gauge his current level. His No. 121 ranking reflects a fragmented season rather than a settled form line, which makes the restart itself the central variable in this fixture.
- Diallo's last recorded match was a retirement at 6-4 2-3 against Luciano Darderi on 4 August 2026 in Montreal.
- Diallo was named among the Shanghai Masters main-draw wildcards and was reported absent from the field two days later.
- Diallo appears in the Almaty Open Day 1 schedule against Harold Mayot on 17 October 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 22:15 · Europe/Bucharest
Mayot's last completed match before Almaty ended in retirement after treatment to the leg and hip area, and it followed five matches in seven days during the Saint-Tropez Challenger. A physical problem of that type is harder to absorb in a best-of-three qualifying opener with no margin for a slow start. There is no later report confirming his fitness, so the retirement is the strongest current signal about his condition rather than proof that it still limits him.
- Mayot retired against Clement Chidekh at 3-6 6-2 2-0.
- A medical timeout was taken in the second set for treatment to the leg and hip area.
- The match followed Mayot's run to the Saint-Tropez Challenger 125 final on 27 September 2026.
ReportedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 22:15 · Europe/Bucharest
Mayot reached consecutive Challenger finals at Rennes and Saint-Tropez a week later, losing both, and he has repeatedly finished as a Challenger runner-up without taking a title. That run establishes a high floor on hard courts in the weeks before Almaty and includes wins over ranked opposition such as Jesper De Jong. The results are Challenger-level, so they do not translate directly to an ATP 250 qualifying field, but they show he arrives match-tested rather than short of competition.
- Mayot lost the Rennes Challenger final to Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg 4-6 6-3 7-5 .
- Mayot lost the Saint-Tropez Challenger 125 final to Titouan Droguet 6-3 7-5 .
- Mayot beat third seed Jesper De Jong 6-3 4-6 7-5 in the Saint-Tropez quarter-finals and advanced when Murphy Cassone retired in the semi-finals.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 22:15 · Europe/Bucharest
Mayot has started hard-court matches strongly across this 13-match window, and the two tiebreaks in those opening sets show they were not all one-way. Gabriel Diallo lost the first set in both of his two tracked hard matches, so the opening set tilts Mayot's way; two matches is a thin basis for Diallo's side of that comparison.
- Mayot won set1 in 10 of 13 hard-court matches from 9 September to 1 October 2026.
- He averaged 5.46 games won and 4.46 games lost in set1 across that sample.
- Two of the 13 opening sets went to a tiebreak.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Mayot is match-tough and in strong hard-court form, while Diallo returns from a long absence.
- 10 wins and 3 losses in 13 tracked matches, all on hard.
- Won set1 in 10 of 13 hard matches.
- Reached back-to-back Challenger finals in late September.
- Won 2 of last 3 completed matches, all in October.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHarold MayotEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets have often reached double-figure games.
- Mayot's set1 average total is 9.92 games.
- Diallo's two hard set1 totals were 12 and 13 games.
- Two tiebreaks in 13 Mayot hard set1s.
- Diallo's set1 games average 12.5 total.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent second sets have tended to finish below ten games.
- Mayot's set2 average total is 9.23 games.
- Mayot's set2 had no tiebreaks in 13 hard sets.
- Diallo's set2 average total is 8.5 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The 24.5-game mark sits near both players' recent averages, and Mayot's matches often extend.
- Mayot's 13 hard matches average 24.15 total games.
- Diallo's 2 hard matches average 25 total games.
- Mayot's last six completed matches average 25.2 total games.
- Three of Mayot's last six completed matches went over 24.5 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 24.5Estimated chance53%

Sets0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Mayot has been consistently strong in opening sets on hard courts.
- Won set1 in 10 of 13 hard matches.
- Averaged 5.46 games won and 4.46 lost in set1 on hard.
- Diallo lost set1 in both tracked hard matches.
- Two tiebreaks in 13 hard set1s.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostHarold MayotEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mayot frequently goes the distance, and Diallo's small hard sample includes a deciding set.
- Mayot's 13 hard matches average 2.46 sets.
- Six of Mayot's 13 hard matches went to a deciding set.
- Diallo's two hard matches average 2.5 sets.
- Diallo won one hard match 2-1 and lost the other 0-2.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mayot still wins more second sets than he loses, though the margin is slim.
- Won set2 in 6 of 13 hard matches.
- Averaged 4.38 games won and 4.85 lost in set2 on hard.
- Diallo lost set2 in 1 of 2 hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostHarold MayotEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been uncommon in Mayot's recent hard-court matches.
- Mayot had no tiebreak in 10 of 13 hard matches.
- Mayot's hard set2s had no tiebreaks in 13 sets.
- Diallo's two hard matches produced one tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance70%

Previous match context available

Gabriel Diallo

5W 10L

6-4 2-3 ret.#21Luciano Darderi

6-7(1) 6-3 6-2#76Kyrian Jacquet

7-5 6-2#209Tristan Boyer

7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(4) 6-7(6) 6-2#87Lorenzo Sonego

1-6 4-6 7-6(5) 6-3 3-1 ret.#92Benjamin Bonzi

6-1 6-4#158Jack Draper

6-7(11) 6-3 6-2#31Tomas Martin Etcheverry

6-7(7) 6-4 7-5#99Terence Atmane

7-6(8) 6-3#9Alex De Minaur

6-4 3-6 7-5#83Adrian Mannarino

6-3 4-1 ret.#64James Duckworth

7-5 3-3 ret.#181Elmer Moller

6-1 6-2#2Alexander Zverev

6-1 6-2#172Vitaliy Sachko

6-2 6-3#29Joao Fonseca

Harold Mayot

11W 4L

3-6 6-2 2-0 ret.#146Clement Chidekh

6-4 2-6 6-4#155Tristan Schoolkate

6-3 7-5#415Niels Visker

6-3 7-5#72Titouan Droguet

5-7 6-2 4-2 ret.#273Murphy Cassone

6-3 4-6 7-5#95Jesper De Jong

6-4 6-3#199Edas Butvilas

6-4 2-6 7-6(2)#416Justin Boulais

4-6 6-3 7-5#189Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-3 6-3#155Tristan Schoolkate

6-4 6-4#146Clement Chidekh

7-6(5) 1-6 6-4#160Clement Tabur

6-1 6-3#248Max Basing

6-4 6-2#367Dimitar Kuzmanov

6-7(2) 6-3 6-2#517Adrian Boitan

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

GDGabriel DialloDiallo

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Harold MayotMayotHM

Harold Mayot carries the stronger recent form — Gabriel Diallo's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In68.1%+2.2pp70.3%

1st Serve Won70.1%+1.7pp71.8%

2nd Serve Won46.2%+5.8pp52.0%

Aces / Match6.8+2.04.8

Double Faults / Match2.71.4 fewer1.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won32.6%+6.6pp39.2%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted43.2%+5.1pp38.1%

Break Pts Saved57.4%+0.8pp56.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.3%+3.4pp51.7%

Serve · 1–4

68.1%1st Serve In+2.2pp70.3%

70.1%1st Serve Won+1.7pp71.8%

46.2%2nd Serve Won+5.8pp52.0%

6.8Aces / Match+2.04.8

2.7Double Faults / Match1.4 fewer1.3

Return · 0–1

32.6%Return Pts Won+6.6pp39.2%

Pressure · 2–0

43.2%Break Pts Converted+5.1pp38.1%

57.4%Break Pts Saved+0.8pp56.6%

Points · 0–1

48.3%Total Pts Won+3.4pp51.7%