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Predictions graded

Tristan Boyer #209United States2Vilius Gaubas #141Lithuania1

Sets 6-3 · 4-6 · 6-4Thu 15 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions4–544%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageVilius Gaubas · 68 places

Tristan Boyer

United States

Reached a career-high No. 106 on 8 September 2025 and is No. 168 in the supplied structured data. He is a 188 cm right-hander with a two-handed backhand, and his profile source lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #209
Peak ranking: #106 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Vilius Gaubas

Lithuania

Lithuanian player, age 21, seeded 14th in the 2026 US Open qualifying draw. Contemporary reporting describes clay as his most comfortable surface.

Current ranking: #141
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 22:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Gaubas brings the longer clay record and a straight-sets Maia opener into this second-round meeting, while Boyer's two tracked clay matches and a reported left-leg timeout in his own opener leave the picture less clear-cut than the rankings suggest.

Gaubas looks the likelier winner, most plausibly in straight sets. Three quotes offer something: 1.75 for Gaubas to win, 1.75 for the opening set and 1.8 for the second set. Boyer's 1.95 and 1.9 quotes do not.

Context

Boyer needed treatment on his left leg during his opening match and returns to the same indoor clay court a day later. He went on to win that match in straight sets, so the timeout did not visibly derail his tennis, but it is the clearest current physical signal attached to either player in this fixture. If the leg limits his movement or serve, the effect would be amplified on a surface that rewards repeat defensive work and longer rallies.
- Medical time out for Tristan Boyer; treatment on left leg area; Moro Canas to serve next at 2-3 down in set 2 ()
- Boyer beat Alejandro Moro Canas 6-4 6-2 to reach the Maia second round ()
ReportedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 22:27 · Europe/Bucharest
Gaubas has the more recent clay match-play of the two, arriving from a full week at the Braga Challenger before winning his Maia opener. His 2025 Braga final and 2026 Braga semifinal give him a specific record on Portuguese clay rather than a single result. That run, plus a straight-sets first round, frames him as the player carrying rhythm into this second-round match.
- 2024 champion Elmer Moller defeats 2025 runner-up Vilius Gaubas 6-2, 4-6, 6-4 to reach a 4th ATP Challenger final on Portuguese soil ()
- Gaubas, the third seed, meets Elmer Moller in the Braga semifinal ()
- Gaubas beat Kimmer Coppejans 6-3 6-4 to reach the Maia second round ()
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 22:27 · Europe/Bucharest
Gaubas has been harder to break after the opening set on clay, winning nine of eleven second sets in the tracked window, and six of his seven clay wins came in straight sets. Boyer has won both of his own tracked clay second sets, so this is no formality, and the sample on both sides is small.
- 11 clay matches tracked between 28 July and 13 October 2026
- Set 2 record 9-2, averaging 5.9 games won and 4.7 lost
- Set 1 record 7-4, averaging 4.9 games won and 3.8 lost
- Scorelines across the sample: six 2-0, one 0-2, three 1-2 and one 2-1
The sample is thin but consistent: Boyer has averaged 6.5 games won and 3.5 lost in clay second sets while being outscored 4-5 in opening sets. His two clay matches averaged 24 games and 2.5 sets, so neither finished quickly in his case.
- Set evidence covers two clay matches, 5 to 13 October 2026, with one retirement excluded
- Set 1 record 1-1, averaging 4 games won and 5 lost
- Set 2 record 2-0, averaging 6.5 games won and 3.5 lost
- Total games average 24 and total sets average 2.5; scorelines one 2-0 and one 1-2

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Gaubas has far more clay evidence and stronger game numbers in this window, and he sits higher in the rankings.
- Gaubas is 7-4 on clay in this window with 53.8% of games won
- Gaubas clay set record: set1 7-4, set2 9-2
- Boyer has only two completed clay matches tracked, 1-1
- Gaubas is ranked 141, Boyer 209
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostVilius GaubasEstimated chance63%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets on clay have run longer for both players than their opening sets.
- Gaubas averages 10.6 total games in set2 on clay
- Boyer averages 10 total games in set2 on clay
- Gaubas has 2 set2 tiebreaks in 11 clay matches
- Boyer has no tracked clay set2 tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Set1 games sit right around the line, with tiebreaks rare in this window.
- Gaubas averages 8.7 total games in set1 on clay
- Boyer averages 9 total games in set1 on clay
- Gaubas's set1 tiebreak count is 1 in 11
- Boyer has no tracked clay set1 tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The line sits close to Gaubas's clay average, and both first rounds here were finished quickly.
- Gaubas clay matches average 22.45 total games
- Gaubas's Maia opener had 19 games
- Boyer's Maia opener had 18 games
- Boyer clay matches average 24 total games
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 23.5Estimated chance54%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Gaubas's second-set record on clay is his strongest split in this window.
- Gaubas has won set2 in 9 of 11 clay matches
- Gaubas averages 5.9 games won in set2 on clay
- Boyer's set2 record on clay is 2-0
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonVilius GaubasEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Gaubas has started well on clay more often than not in this window.
- Gaubas has won the opening set in 7 of 11 clay matches
- Gaubas averages 4.9 games won in set1 on clay
- Boyer's clay set1 record is 1-1
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostVilius GaubasEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most of Gaubas's clay matches in this window finished in two sets, and both players won their opener without dropping one.
- Gaubas clay matches average 2.36 sets
- 7 of Gaubas's 11 clay matches finished 2-0 or 0-2
- 6 of Gaubas's 7 clay wins came in straight sets
- Boyer's two clay matches average 2.5 sets
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been uncommon in both players' clay matches in this window.
- Gaubas has 2 matches with a tiebreak in 11 clay matches
- Boyer has no tiebreak in 2 clay matches
- Gaubas's set1 and set2 tiebreak counts are 1 and 2 across 11 matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance68%

Previous match context available

Tristan Boyer

7W 8L

6-4 6-2#233Alejandro Moro Canas

6-2 5-7 6-4#114Zsombor Piros

2-6 7-5 7-5#362Timo Legout

6-4 7-6(7)#413Sebastian Gorzny

7-6(4) 6-1#443Spencer Johnson

7-6(2) 6-1#291Abedallah Shelbayh

6-2 6-4#350Edward Winter

6-4 3-6 6-4#194Andre Ilagan

7-6(10) 6-2#897James Watt

6-2 6-2#341Aidan Mayo

6-2 1-6 6-2#764Matthew Forbes

6-3 3-6 6-3#199Edas Butvilas

6-7(4) 4-3 ret.#20Francisco Cerundolo

7-5 6-2#121Gabriel Diallo

7-6(1) 6-3#889Lorenzo Claverie

Vilius Gaubas

9W 6L

6-3 6-4#232Kimmer Coppejans

6-2 4-6 6-4#181Elmer Moller

6-2 6-4#167Luka Mikrut

5-7 7-6(4) 6-2#353Duje Ajdukovic

6-1 7-5#584Joao Domingues

6-4 6-4#78Hamad Medjedovic

6-2 3-6 6-0#410Pavel Lagutin

6-7(3) 7-6(5) 7-6(5)#182Harry Wendelken

6-4 6-3#163Marco Cecchinato

6-3 7-6(1)#270Kilian Feldbausch

2-6 6-4 6-4#226Max Houkes

6-2 6-3#69Facundo Diaz Acosta

7-6(7) 7-6(5)#235Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-2 6-3#287Genaro Alberto Olivieri

6-1 7-5#207Luka Pavlovic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TBTristan BoyerBoyer

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Vilius GaubasGaubasVG

Vilius Gaubas carries the stronger recent form — Tristan Boyer's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1561.6%+2.1pp63.7%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1569.7%+1.1pp68.6%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1553.3%+3.2pp50.1%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/153.5+0.43.1

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.71.3 fewer1.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1539.1%+1.4pp40.5%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1540.2%+9.3pp49.5%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1556.2%+4.2pp60.4%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1550.9%+0.8pp51.7%

Serve · 3–2

61.6%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+2.1pp63.7%

69.7%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.1pp68.6%

53.3%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+3.2pp50.1%

3.5Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+0.43.1

2.7Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.3 fewer1.4

Return · 0–1

39.1%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.4pp40.5%

Pressure · 0–2

40.2%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+9.3pp49.5%

56.2%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+4.2pp60.4%

Points · 0–1

50.9%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+0.8pp51.7%