ItalyOlbia - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Mili Poljicak #286Croatia0Francesco Maestrelli #171Italy2

Sets 2-6 · 3-6Tue 13 Oct 2026, 17:55 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions4–544%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFrancesco Maestrelli · 115 places

Mili Poljicak

Croatia

Croatian right-hander, born 13 July 2004, reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 257 on 30 June 2025. ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #286
Peak ranking: #257 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Francesco Maestrelli

Italy

Italian right-hander whose ATP bio lists hard courts as his favourite surface. He reached his career-high ranking of No. 108 in February 2026.

Current ranking: #171
Peak ranking: #108 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 00:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Maestrelli is the higher-ranked player with the sturdier hard-court serve, but he arrives after losing four of his past six and letting a 2-0 deciding-set lead slip at Villena.

He is the likelier winner on this evidence; the 1.6 quote asks for 62.5% and does not quite get there. Poljicak at 2.2 falls short too, so neither match-winner price is worth taking.

Context

Maestrelli arrives at Olbia after losing to qualifier Oliver Tarvet, ranked No. 307, in a match he had led 2-0 in the deciding set before the overnight suspension. It is his third defeat in his past five matches and the most recent evidence of the form he brings into the main draw. He remains the higher-ranked player in this fixture, so the form line and the ranking point in opposite directions.
- Villena Challenger round of 32, 6-: Oliver Tarvet def. Francesco Maestrelli 4-6 6-3 6-4
- The match was suspended overnight with Maestrelli leading 2-0 in the third set and was completed the following day
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 · Europe/Bucharest
The Porto title is Poljicak's most recent trophy and came at 125 level during the same European hard-court swing that now leads into Olbia. It is a doubles result, so it does not by itself change how his singles should be read; his next singles appearance was a qualifying loss to Max Hans Rehberg at Villena. Its value for this match is context on his current competitive volume rather than evidence of a singles edge.
- Porto Challenger doubles final, : Latinovic/Poljicak def. Pieczonka/Donski 6-3 6-4
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 · Europe/Bucharest
This fixture is played on hard courts, the surface both players list as their preference, so neither is being asked to adapt to clay as both did for much of the summer. The 125-level draw is stronger than the smaller events both have played recently, with four top-100 entrants led by Jaume Munar. That sets the standard around this match and makes a main-draw win here a more meaningful result than a routine qualifying victory.
- Tournament scheduled for 11-18 October 2026 at Tennis Club Terranova, played on hard courts
- 125-level main draw released with four top-100 entrants led by Jaume Munar
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 · Europe/Bucharest
Eleven hard-court matches from 11 August to 6 October produced three first-set and four second-set tiebreaks, and the same sample averaged 24.7 games per match with six going to a decider. That points to a match more likely to run long than to finish one-sided. Poljicak's four hard matches in the same window featured no tiebreak, so this leans on Maestrelli's record rather than a shared habit.
- Hard-court set evidence, 11 matches, 11 August - 6 October 2026: seven matches with a tiebreak, three in set one and four in set two
- Same 11 matches: average total games 24.7, average sets 2.55

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Francesco Maestrelli

1.60fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 62.5%

−7.5ppshort

Maestrelli has the higher ranking, a much larger hard-court sample and more reliable serving numbers, while Poljicak's four-match hard record includes a heavy loss to Henrique Rocha.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Maestrelli has the higher ranking, a much larger hard-court sample and more reliable serving numbers, while Poljicak's four-match hard record includes a heavy loss to Henrique Rocha.
- Maestrelli is ranked 171 vs Poljicak's 286
- Hard-court sample: Maestrelli 11 matches (4-7), Poljicak 4 (2-2)
- Maestrelli first serve in 68.2% on hard vs Poljicak 55.8%
- Break points saved on hard: Maestrelli 63.3%, Poljicak 54.2%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFrancesco MaestrelliEstimated chance55%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' hard-court matches have run slightly beyond this line, and Maestrelli in particular has repeatedly gone deep into sets.
- Maestrelli hard-court average total games 24.7 across 11 matches
- Poljicak hard-court average total games 23.0 across 4 matches
- Maestrelli has played seven tiebreak matches in eleven on hard
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 23.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Maestrelli's first sets have tended to run past this line, and his matches regularly feature tight opening sets.
- Poljicak set1 average total games 9.25
- Maestrelli set1 average total games 9.82
- Three of Maestrelli's eleven hard first sets reached a tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined second-set average sits just below the line, with Poljicak's second sets in particular finishing quickly.
- Poljicak set2 average total games 8.5
- Poljicak has won only 3.0 games per second set on hard
- Combined set2 average total games 9.3
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Maestrelli has been considerably better in second sets than in first sets, while Poljicak has lost three of four second sets on this surface.
- Maestrelli set2 record on hard: 6 wins, 5 losses
- Poljicak set2 record on hard: 1 win, 3 losses
- Maestrelli set2 games average 5.27 won, 4.91 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonFrancesco MaestrelliEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The overall match edge sits with Maestrelli through ranking and serving consistency, but the first set is close to a coin flip on this evidence.
- Maestrelli set1 record on hard: 4 wins, 7 losses in 11 matches
- Poljicak set1 record on hard: 3 wins, 1 loss in 4 matches
- Maestrelli set1 games average 4.36 won, 5.45 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonFrancesco MaestrelliEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Maestrelli has needed a third set in the majority of his hard-court matches, and neither player shows the dominance to win routinely in two.
- Maestrelli hard-court average sets per match 2.55 across 11 matches
- Six of Maestrelli's eleven hard matches went to a decider
- Poljicak's four hard matches split 2-0, 2-1, 1-2 and 0-2
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance51%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Maestrelli's hard-court matches have frequently featured tiebreaks, and both players hold serve well enough to force them.
- Seven of Maestrelli's eleven hard matches contained a tiebreak
- Maestrelli hard setEvidence shows three tiebreaks in set1 and four in set2
- Poljicak's four hard matches contained no tiebreak
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two players' combined ace rate sits just below the line for an average-length match, so a two-set finish would fall short.
- Poljicak hard-court aces per match 7.8
- Maestrelli hard-court aces per match 7.1
- Combined hard-court aces average 14.9 per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 15.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Poljicak's double-fault rate is high enough on this surface to lift the combined figure to the line.
- Poljicak hard-court double faults per match 3.3
- Maestrelli hard-court double faults per match 2.2
- Combined hard-court double fault average 5.5 per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Mili Poljicak

8W 7L

5-7 6-3 6-3#280Max Hans Rehberg

6-4 3-6 7-5#715Patrick Brady

6-2 6-0#106Henrique Rocha

6-1 6-4#248Max Basing

6-4 6-4#135Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-2 6-3#174Matej Dodig

6-4 6-3#293Max Schoenhaus

7-6(6) 6-1#560Sebastian Dominko

6-4 6-0—Vaal Urankar

6-1 6-4#69Facundo Diaz Acosta

7-5 6-4#200Juan Pablo Varillas

7-6(3) 6-7(4) 7-5#133Alexandre Muller

6-7(8) 6-3 6-4#124Nikoloz Basilashvili

7-6(6) 7-6(2)#319Enrico Dalla Valle

7-6(14) 6-3#889Jozef Kovalik

Francesco Maestrelli

5W 10L

4-6 6-3 6-4#307Oliver Tarvet

6-3 6-7(4) 6-3#165Andrea Guerrieri

6-0 6-3#189Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

4-6 7-6(3) 6-3#509Yanis Ghazouani Durand

6-4 7-6(3)#354Arthur Nagel

6-0 2-6 6-1#238Maks Kasnikowski

6-7(2) 6-1 6-4#448Alafia Ayeni

6-2 6-2#366Juan Pablo Ficovich

6-7(2) 6-3 6-1#100Toby Samuel

6-4 7-6(4)#129Alexei Popyrin

7-6(6) 6-4#93Bu Yunchaokete

7-6(5) 4-6 6-3#200Juan Pablo Varillas

6-4 6-0#180Lukas Neumayer

6-3 6-7(8) 6-3#377Ognjen Milic

4-6 7-6(2) 6-4#248Max Basing

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MPMili PoljicakPoljicak

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Francesco MaestrelliMaestrelliFM

Francesco Maestrelli carries the stronger recent form — Mili Poljicak's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In57.4%+8.8pp66.2%

1st Serve Won73.8%+4.0pp69.8%

2nd Serve Won50.0%+4.2pp45.8%

Aces / Match7.2+1.08.2

Double Faults / Match2.01.1 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won34.4%+1.5pp35.9%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted35.2%+11.6pp46.8%

Break Pts Saved51.4%+14.5pp65.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won48.9%—48.8%

Serve · 3–2

57.4%1st Serve In+8.8pp66.2%

73.8%1st Serve Won+4.0pp69.8%

50.0%2nd Serve Won+4.2pp45.8%

7.2Aces / Match+1.08.2

2.0Double Faults / Match1.1 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

34.4%Return Pts Won+1.5pp35.9%

Pressure · 0–2

35.2%Break Pts Converted+11.6pp46.8%

51.4%Break Pts Saved+14.5pp65.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

48.9%Total Pts Won—48.8%