PortugalWTA LisbonFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Martina Colmegna #337Italy0Francesca Jones #105United Kingdom2

Sets 5-7 · 1-6Tue 13 Oct 2026, 10:15 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions7–464%

Edges0–50%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFrancesca Jones · 232 places

Martina Colmegna

Italy

Colmegna, 29, is a right-hander whose listed preferred surface is clay. She reached her current career-best singles ranking of No. 340 in July 2026.

Current ranking: #337
Peak ranking: #340 · 2026
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Francesca Jones

United Kingdom

British player who reached the 2026 US Open qualifying draw as its third seed after consecutive WTA 125 titles in Rome and Palermo.

Current ranking: #105
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Francesca Jones, the No. 2 seed, meets clay regular Martina Colmegna in the WTA 125 Lisbon first round, with the ranking gap pointing to a Jones win.

Jones lost her last completed clay match without taking a set, and Colmegna has stayed near level on the surface. Jones at 1.07 offers nothing; Colmegna at 5.25 to win either the first or second set, Colmegna at 8.5 to win the match, Over 20.5 games at 2.6 and Over 2.5 sets at 3.3 are the worthwhile calls.

Context

Jones enters the main draw as the No. 2 seed in a 125-level clay event, a position that reflects a singles ranking of No. 105 against a field drawn largely from outside the top 100. That gap frames the first-round match, with the seeded player expected to control the baseline exchanges on a slow surface. Seeding tracks entry ranking rather than current-week form, and Colmegna is a clay-based opponent who is comfortable in these conditions. It matters because it sets the favourite and the level the unseeded opponent must bridge over three sets.
- Francesca Jones is listed as the No. 2 seed for the Lisboa Belem Open
- Her listed WTA singles ranking is No. 105.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 04:17 · Europe/BucharestWTASchedule match listingwww.wtaschedule.com · 12 Oct 2026
Colmegna's clay matches tend to resolve quickly rather than drift into a third set: only three of her 15 completed matches reached a decider, and she averages 2.2 sets per match. Six 0-2 defeats and six 2-0 wins in the same sample mean the pattern cuts both ways against a higher-ranked opponent. For this opener it points to a compact match rather than a long grind.
- 15 completed clay matches tracked, 19 June to 25 September 2026
- Scorelines: six 2-0 wins, six 0-2 losses, two 2-1 wins and one 1-2 loss
- Averages 2.2 sets and 20.3 total games per match
Jones's latest completed clay result was a heavy defeat to a lower-ranked opponent, taking only four games. That sits inside a 7-2 clay record in the tracked window, so it reads as a recent wobble rather than a lasting slide. It still shows the No. 105 ranking has not shielded her from a defeat to a player outside the top 180 on this surface.
- 16 September 2026: lost 0-2 to Mona Barthel (No. 186) on clay, 0-6 4-6
The split matters because Jones is a clear favourite but has needed three sets in three of her nine clay matches, with one retirement excluded from the sample. Her average of 22.6 total games and 2.44 sets per match shows the extra tennis tends to arrive later in the contest rather than as early dominance. For Colmegna, the reading is that a quick defeat is possible but an extended match is a real alternative.
- Nine completed clay matches tracked, 25 July to 16 September 2026, one retirement excluded
- Clay scorelines: four 2-0 wins, three 2-1 wins, two defeats
- Averages 22.6 total games and 2.44 sets per match

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Jones is far higher ranked and has the stronger recent clay record, while Colmegna has been close to even in both sets and games.
- Jones is ranked No. 105, Colmegna No. 337
- Jones is 7-2 on clay in the tracked window and 11-3 in her last 14 overall
- Colmegna is 8-7 on clay, winning 51.5% of sets and 49.8% of games
- Jones is the No. 2 seed at the Lisbon event
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFrancesca JonesEstimated chance71%

Games1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Colmegna has kept every tracked clay match within eight games.
- Colmegna's worst clay game margin is -6 in six matches
- Jones's biggest clay win margin is +5
- Jones lost one clay match by eight games
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMartina Colmegna +8.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Colmegna has rarely been beaten heavily on clay in the tracked window.
- Colmegna stayed within six games in 5 of 6 tracked clay matches
- Her largest clay losing margin was six games
- Jones's four clay margins this window were +5, +4, -1 and -8
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMartina Colmegna +6.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Colmegna has kept game margins close in most clay matches while Jones's own margins have been modest.
- Colmegna stayed within 4.5 games in 5 of 6 tracked clay matches
- Her clay margins were +8, +7, +5, +4, -3 and -6
- Jones has an eight-game clay loss in the window
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMartina Colmegna +4.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Both players' recent clay matches have generally lasted more than twenty games.
- Jones's clay matches average 22.6 total games
- Colmegna's clay matches average 20.3 total games
- Four of Jones's nine clay matches went to a deciding set
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Opening sets have typically finished at nine games or fewer.
- Colmegna's clay opening sets average 9.07 total games
- Jones's clay opening sets average 9.0 total games
- Only one tiebreak appeared across the two players' clay opening sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The stronger player has finished more clay matches in straight sets than in three.
- Colmegna's clay matches average 2.2 sets
- Jones has won four of her seven clay matches in straight sets
- Jones's clay scorelines are four 2-0 wins, three 2-1 wins and two losses
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Jones starts clay matches more strongly than Colmegna and is the higher-ranked player.
- Jones has won the opening set in 6 of 9 clay matches
- Colmegna has won the opening set in 8 of 15 clay matches
- Jones averages 5.33 games won and 3.67 lost in clay opening sets
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonFrancesca JonesEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Jones has the better second-set record of the two on clay.
- Jones has won set two in 6 of 9 clay matches
- Colmegna has lost set two in 8 of 15 clay matches
- Jones averages 5.11 games won in clay second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonFrancesca JonesEstimated chance62%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' recent clay matches finished without a tiebreak.
- Colmegna had four tiebreaks in 15 clay matches
- Jones had two tiebreaks in 9 clay matches
- Three-quarters of their combined clay matches had no tiebreak
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance74%

Martina Colmegna

8W 7L

6-1 7-6(4)#407Alena Kovackova

7-5 7-5#727Mia Horvit

7-5 6-3#857Federica Bilardo

7-5 7-6(3)#183Mia Ristic

6-2 6-3#863Gabriella Price

6-3 6-1#722Amelie Justine Hejtmanek

3-6 6-2 6-2#633Marianne Argyrokastriti

6-2 6-2#221Nuria Brancaccio

6-1 6-2#556Sofia Rocchetti

3-6 7-6(4) 6-1#197Barbora Palicova

6-3 7-6(2)#197Barbora Palicova

6-3 6-2#352Jenny Lim

6-3 6-4#522Nellie Taraba Wallberg

6-0 6-1#420Nina Vargova

6-4 1-6 6-3#715Federica Sacco

Francesca Jones

11W 4L

6-0 6-4#186Mona Barthel

5-7 6-3 6-3#656Alja Senica

7-6(5) 5-7 6-4#205Rositsa Dencheva

6-4 6-3#383Raluca Georgiana Serban

6-4 6-4#13Iva Jovic

6-4 1-6 6-3#80Magda Linette

6-4 6-1#143Joanna Garland

7-6(3) 1-6 6-2#186Mona Barthel

6-3 6-4#221Nuria Brancaccio

7-6(5) ret.#78Kaitlin Quevedo

6-1 6-2#287Alice Rame

7-5 6-3#353Lucija Ciric Bagaric

6-0 1-6 6-0#320Chloe Paquet

6-0 4-6 7-6(6)#108Fiona Ferro

6-3 6-4#168Alevtina Ibragimova

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MCMartina ColmegnaColmegna

Last 15

2–5

9 core stats · 2 even

Francesca JonesJonesFJ

Francesca Jones carries the stronger recent form — Martina Colmegna's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In75.1%+12.1pp63.0%

1st Serve Won56.8%+7.1pp63.9%

2nd Serve Won41.6%+8.0pp49.6%

Aces / Match0.3+1.21.5

Double Faults / Match1.22.9 fewer4.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won47.4%—47.0%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted48.2%—47.9%

Break Pts Saved46.3%+12.9pp59.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.1%+2.8pp52.9%

Serve · 2–3

75.1%1st Serve In+12.1pp63.0%

56.8%1st Serve Won+7.1pp63.9%

41.6%2nd Serve Won+8.0pp49.6%

0.3Aces / Match+1.21.5

1.2Double Faults / Match2.9 fewer4.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

47.4%Return Pts Won—47.0%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

48.2%Break Pts Converted—47.9%

46.3%Break Pts Saved+12.9pp59.2%

Points · 0–1

50.1%Total Pts Won+2.8pp52.9%