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Predictions graded

Martin Landaluce #73Spain2Ilia Simakin #154Russia0

Sets 6-3 · 6-3Tue 13 Oct 2026, 04:53 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–633%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMartin Landaluce · 81 places

Martin Landaluce

Spain

Reached career-high No. 55 on 15 June 2026; ATP lists grass as his favourite surface. He became the first player born in 2006 or later to reach an ATP Masters 1000 quarter-final at Miami in March 2026.

Current ranking: #73
Peak ranking: #55 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Ilia Simakin

Russia

Reached a career-high No. 214 on 2 February 2026. His 2026 ITF-recorded results were stronger on hard courts than clay.

Current ranking: #154
Peak ranking: #214 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Oct 2026, 09:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Ranking and form pull opposite ways: Landaluce sits at No. 73 but has won only two of his last nine hard-court matches, while Simakin, at No. 154, has won 14 of 15.

Simakin is the likelier winner. Simakin at 1.8 to win the match, 2.75 for a 2-0 set scoreline and 1.8 to take the opening set are the reviewed prices with potential value; Landaluce's 1.9 quotes for match and first set require more than his recent record supports.

Context

Simakin arrives in Jinan on the strongest hard-court run of his career: back-to-back Phan Thiet Challenger titles in September and a 17-match winning streak that he extended through Shanghai qualifying. That form makes the lower-ranked player a live threat to a top-100 opponent on a hard court. The limitation is the level of the streak: every win came in Challengers or qualifying, and the run ended at the first ATP main-draw hurdle, so its value against higher-ranked opposition is still unproven.
- Back-to-back ATP Challenger titles at Phan Thiet on 13 and
- 17-match hard-court winning streak spanning Challenger titles and Shanghai qualifying
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 09:17 · Europe/Bucharest
Landaluce is the higher-ranked player at No. 73, but the form favours the opponent: he had won only two of his previous nine hard-court matches and arrived with five defeats in six. That recent record is why the ranking gap matters less than it appears. The counterpoint is that the Struff scoreline understates him: he created break chances in the second set and was broken late rather than swept aside, so the struggle is about converting chances on a surface where he has had little reward.
- Struff beat Landaluce 6-4 6-4 in Shanghai
- Landaluce had lost five of his previous six matches before Shanghai
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 09:17 · Europe/Bucharest
Those 15 matches are the sample behind the 14-1 run, and the set pattern shows he rarely trails early: 12 first-set wins against three losses, with five matches featuring a tiebreak. Eight straight-set wins and six three-set wins leave a straight-set scoreline live, though his one 1-2 loss to Camilo Ugo Carabelli in Shanghai shows he can be pulled into a decider. For this first round, Landaluce's task begins with surviving the opening set.
- Simakin won 12 of 15 first sets and 11 of 15 second sets across hard-court best-of-three matches from 5 September to 8 October 2026
- Scorelines in the 15-match sample: eight 2-0 wins, six 2-1 wins, one 1-2 loss
- Five of the 15 matches contained a tiebreak; average total games 23.1
He also took 42% of return points (435 of 1036) across the same 14 matches, so pressure has come from both ends. Landaluce's clearest route is the second serve, where Simakin's 54.8% is his weaker number, though it still sits well above the 44.6% Landaluce has won on his own second serve. The sample is Challenger level and Shanghai qualifying, so the same hold rate is untested against higher-ranked opposition.
- 458 of 598 first-serve points won (76.6%) and 193 of 352 second-serve points won (54.8%) across 14 hard-court matches
- 435 of 1036 return points won (42%) in the same hard-court sample
- 7.1 aces and 3.9 double faults per match across 14 hard-court matches

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Simakin has won 14 of 15 and is holding and returning at a far higher level on hard courts than a Landaluce who has lost five of six.
- Simakin: 14-1 in last 15; 78.4% sets won and 60.5% games won on hard
- Hard-court serve/return: 76.6% first-serve points won, 54.8% second-serve points won, 42% return points won
- Landaluce: 4-11 in last 15, 2-7 on hard in last nine
- Simakin confirmed back-to-back Challenger titles and two Shanghai qualifying wins; lone loss to No. 77 Ugo Carabelli
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostIlia SimakinEstimated chance64%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First-set averages for both players sit at about ten games, so a set reaching double figures is marginally the more likely outcome.
- Simakin's first-set average: 10.0 total games, three tiebreaks in 15 matches
- Landaluce's first-set average: 9.9 total games, one tiebreak in eight matches
- Both players' first-set averages sit at or just above the line
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Simakin's matches have averaged just over 23 games and he wins games heavily, which points to a match finishing around or under the line.
- Simakin's average hard-court match: 23.1 total games
- Landaluce's average hard-court match: 26 total games
- Simakin wins 60.5% of games on hard, Landaluce 45.5%
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 24.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Landaluce's second sets have regularly stretched past ten games, keeping the combined second-set average around the line.
- Landaluce's second-set average: 11.25 total games with three tiebreaks in eight matches
- Simakin's second-set average: 9.1 total games with two tiebreaks in 15 matches
- Combined second-set average across both players is about 9.8 games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Simakin has been starting matches strongly, taking the opening set in most of his recent hard-court wins.
- Simakin has won the first set in 12 of 15 hard-court best-of-three matches
- Landaluce has lost the first set in five of eight hard-court matches
- Simakin wins 78.4% of all sets on hard
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostIlia SimakinEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Simakin's second-set record is nearly as strong as his first-set one, and he has rarely been pushed backwards after the opener.
- Simakin has won the second set in 11 of 15 hard-court matches
- Simakin's second-set tiebreaks: two in 15 matches
- Landaluce has lost the second set in five of eight hard-court matches
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostIlia SimakinEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results are the single most common outcome for both players, especially when the in-form player controls the match.
- Simakin's hard-court scorelines: 2-0 in eight of 15, plus one 1-2 loss
- Landaluce has lost 0-2 three times in his last eight hard-court matches
- Combined 13 two-set results in 23 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Breaks have been common enough in these two players' recent matches that most of them avoided a tiebreak.
- Landaluce: five of eight hard-court matches without a tiebreak
- Simakin: ten of 15 hard-court matches without a tiebreak
- Landaluce has converted 40% of break points on hard
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent ace counts for both players together are below the line, even with Simakin serving strongly.
- Simakin: 99 aces in 14 hard-court matches (7.1 per match)
- Landaluce: 45 aces in nine hard-court matches (5.0 per match)
- Combined average is about 12 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 13.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Simakin's low double-fault count offsets Landaluce's higher one, leaving the combined total just under the line in a typical-length match.
- Simakin: 3.9 double faults per match on hard
- Landaluce: 6.7 double faults per match on hard
- Simakin's hard-court matches average 23.1 total games
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Martin Landaluce

4W 11L

6-4 6-4#59Jan-Lennard Struff

6-1 6-7(9) 7-6(2)#90Marco Trungelliti

6-2 6-3#252Matias Soto

6-0 6-4#148Dusan Lajovic

4-6 6-2 4-6 7-5 6-3#96Jacob Fearnley

6-4 6-7(3) 6-1#86Mattia Bellucci

7-6(5) 7-6(4)#54Thiago Agustin Tirante

6-4 4-6 6-4#38Matteo Arnaldi

6-3 7-5#158Jack Draper

4-6 6-4 6-3#119Nicolas Mejia

6-4 6-3#94Michael Zheng

6-4 6-3 6-3#161Soon-Woo Kwon

6-3 1-6 7-5#59Jan-Lennard Struff

6-3 3-6 7-6(2)#99Terence Atmane

7-5 6-4#164Tom Gentzsch

Ilia Simakin

14W 1L

2-6 6-2 7-5#77Camilo Ugo Carabelli

6-3 6-2#849Rigele Te

4-6 6-4 6-1#207Luka Pavlovic

6-7(4) 6-4 6-3#266Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

6-7(7) 7-5 6-2#605Hunter Heck

6-3 6-1#331Cruz Hewitt

6-4 6-2#462Blake Ellis

6-4 6-3#662Timofei Derepasko

6-4 7-6(5)#409Arthur Weber

6-3 2-6 6-2#685Max Purcell

6-4 6-3#363Philip Sekulic

6-2 6-0#439Enzo Aguiard

7-6(7) 2-6 6-2#522Sergio Callejon Hernando

6-3 6-1#397Kasidit Samrej

6-3 6-7(3) 6-3#424Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MLMartin LandaluceLandaluce

Last 15

0–8

9 core stats · 1 even

Ilia SimakinSimakinIS

Ilia Simakin carries the stronger recent form — Martin Landaluce's route runs through break pts saved.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In14/15 · 14/1559.5%+3.4pp62.9%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/1568.9%+7.7pp76.6%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/1546.3%+8.5pp54.8%

Aces / Match14/15 · 14/156.4+0.77.1

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/155.92.0 fewer3.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/1535.7%+6.3pp42.0%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/1537.6%+12.8pp50.4%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/1557.7%—57.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/1547.5%+7.2pp54.7%

Serve · 0–5

59.5%1st Serve In14/15 · 14/15+3.4pp62.9%

68.9%1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+7.7pp76.6%

46.3%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+8.5pp54.8%

6.4Aces / Match14/15 · 14/15+0.77.1

5.9Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/152.0 fewer3.9

Return · 0–1

35.7%Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+6.3pp42.0%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

37.6%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/15+12.8pp50.4%

57.7%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/15—57.1%

Points · 0–1

47.5%Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+7.2pp54.7%

Martin Landaluce

Ilia Simakin

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Ilia Simakin

Ilia Simakin

Ilia Simakin 2-0

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Martin Landaluce

Ilia Simakin

Stat Battle