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Predictions graded

Benjamin Hassan #5000Zsombor Piros #114Hungary2

Sets 3-6 · 2-6Tue 13 Oct 2026, 10:15 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions6–367%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageZsombor Piros · 386 places

Benjamin Hassan

Lebanese player born 4 February 1995. Reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 143 in June 2024; his recorded career match volume is strongest on clay.

Current ranking: #500
Peak ranking: #143 · 2024
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Zsombor Piros

Hungary

Born on 13 October 1999, Piros reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 106 on 4 March 2024. ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #114
Peak ranking: #106 · 2024
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 22:06 · Europe/Bucharest

A qualifier who has won twice in two days meets the third seed who beat him 7-6 6-3 on clay in September.

Piros, ranked 114 to Hassan's 500, is the likelier winner, and his 1.25 price leaves no room. Hassan at 3.5 is the reviewed price with room in it, with Piros's ranking and their recent meeting the obvious risk.

Context

Hassan enters the main draw with two clay wins behind him, but the second was a three-set match that finished on the afternoon of, and his first-round match against third seed Piros is scheduled for the morning of 13 October. Piros has not competed since 8 October. The result is a short recovery window and a rise in opponent level from the qualifying field to a seeded main-draw player, the most concrete playing condition attached to this fixture.
- Maia qualifying final : Hassan d. Nijboer 5-7 7-6(5) 7-5; it was his fourth successful qualifying campaign of 2026.
- Maia qualifying opener on 11 October 2026: Hassan d. Taberner 7-6(4) 6-3.
- Main draw: qualifier Hassan is drawn against third seed Zsombor Piros in the first round.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 22:04 · Europe/Bucharest
Piros arrives in Maia as one of the highest-ranked players in the field, but his last match was a Braga loss in which a 3-1 final-set lead became a 7-5 defeat to Elmer Moller. That ended his run as top seed at the first hurdle. He has four full days without competition before facing a qualifier, so freshness is on his side while recent match form is not, and the Maia event is his second consecutive clay tournament in Portugal.
- Braga round of 16 : Moller d. Piros 1-6 6-1 7-5; Piros led 3-1 in the third set.
- Piros was the top seed in Braga and had beaten Tristan Boyer 6-2 5-7 6-4 in the first round.
- Piros is seeded third at the Maia Challenger and faces qualifier Benjamin Hassan in the first round.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 22:04 · Europe/Bucharest
Piros took that meeting in straight sets and owns the only recent head-to-head evidence between the two, which supports his case as the higher-ranked player. The first set was decided 7-6, a single game, so Hassan was close before the second set slipped to 6-3. It is one completed match rather than a pattern.
- 28 September 2026, clay: Zsombor Piros d. Benjamin Hassan 7-6 6-3 in a completed two-set match, 13 games to 9.
Hassan has won seven of ten second sets in that completed clay sample while breaking even in first sets, averaging 5.3 games won to 3.8 lost in the second. That points to a player who grows into matches, which matters against a fresher opponent in a first round. The sample is small, excludes three retirements, and his overall clay record in it is 5-5, so it is not a reliable edge.
- Home setEvidence, clay, 10 completed matches, 22 August to 12 October 2026: first sets 5-5, second sets 7-3 with 5.3 games won and 3.8 lost on average; three retirements excluded.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Piros is the higher-ranked player, has the only recent meeting between them on this surface, and holds a narrow edge in clay results.
- Piros is ranked ATP No. 114; Hassan is No. 500
- Piros beat Hassan 7-6 6-3 on clay on 28 Sep 2026
- Piros 5-4 on clay in his last 9 completed matches; Hassan 5-5 in his last 10
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonZsombor PirosEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have tended to be shorter than first sets for both players, especially for Piros.
- Piros set2 averages 8.56 total games on clay
- Hassan set2 averages 9.1 total games on clay
- Piros has no set2 tiebreaks in 9 completed clay matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have recently played long sets, and Hassan's qualifying run added three-set matches with high game counts.
- Hassan averages 22.8 total games on clay; Piros 20.9
- Hassan's last match lasted 37 games over three sets
- Hassan's set1 and set2 games averages are both near 9 to 10
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets for both players have averaged almost exactly ten games on clay, putting the line near even.
- Hassan set1 averages 9.8 total games on clay; Piros 9.89
- Both have two set1 tiebreaks in their clay samples
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' recent clay matches ended in straight sets, including their head-to-head.
- Piros finished in straight sets in 7 of 9 completed clay matches
- Hassan finished in straight sets in 6 of 10 completed clay matches
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Piros has started clay matches more strongly than Hassan, and the ranking gap favours him early.
- Piros set1 record 6-3 on clay; Hassan 5-5
- Piros set1 games average 5.44 won and 4.44 conceded on clay
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonZsombor PirosEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hassan has been noticeably stronger in second sets than Piros across their completed clay matches.
- Hassan set2 record 7-3 on clay; Piros 4-5
- Hassan set2 games average 5.3 won and 3.8 conceded on clay
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostBenjamin HassanEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' completed clay matches finished without a tiebreak.
- Hassan had 3 matches with a tiebreak and 7 without in his clay sample
- Piros had 2 matches with a tiebreak and 7 without in his clay sample
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance68%

Prediction history

Zsombor Piros: 13/15 recent winner projections matched

13 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Zsombor Piros matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Zsombor Piros15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

22 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#119Zsombor Piros0-2#409Max Hans Rehberg

BetBugsZsombor Piros to win·72%

Missed

22 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#119Zsombor Piros0-2#409Max Hans Rehberg

Zsombor Piros to win

72%probability

Max Hans Rehberg won

Missed

20 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#120Zsombor Piros2-0#240Stefano Napolitano

BetBugsZsombor Piros to win·72%

Matched

20 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#120Zsombor Piros2-0#240Stefano Napolitano

Zsombor Piros to win

72%probability

Zsombor Piros won

Matched

11 Jul·Iasi - Romania

#169Zsombor Piros2-0#196Jerome Kym

BetBugsZsombor Piros to win·58%

Matched

11 Jul 2026

Iasi - Romania

#169Zsombor Piros2-0#196Jerome Kym

Zsombor Piros to win

58%probability

Zsombor Piros won

Matched

10 Jul·Iasi - Romania

#230Lautaro Midon0-2#169Zsombor Piros

BetBugsZsombor Piros to win·62%

Matched

10 Jul 2026

Iasi - Romania

#230Lautaro Midon0-2#169Zsombor Piros

Zsombor Piros to win

62%probability

Zsombor Piros won

Matched

7 Jul·Iasi - Romania

#169Zsombor Piros2-0#723Gabriel Ghetu

BetBugsZsombor Piros to win·82%

Matched

7 Jul 2026

Iasi - Romania

#169Zsombor Piros2-0#723Gabriel Ghetu

Zsombor Piros to win

82%probability

Zsombor Piros won

Matched

Previous match context available

Benjamin Hassan

8W 7L

5-7 7-6(5) 7-5#417Ryan Nijboer

7-6(4) 6-3#361Carlos Taberner

6-3 6-3#417Ryan Nijboer

6-3 6-1#767Rafael Izquierdo Luque

7-6(1) 6-3#114Zsombor Piros

1-6 6-4 6-1#215Pol Martin Tiffon

7-6(0) 6-2#702Samir Hamza Reguig

6-2 6-2#877Marsel Ilhan

7-5 6-7(4) ret.#336Francesco Forti

6-4 6-3#861Nicolas Parizzia

6-2 3-6 7-5#285Juan Manuel La Serna

6-4 6-2#418Matthew William Donald

7-5 6-7(5) 4-1 ret.#746Maximilian Marterer

6-1 2-6 6-2#263Dominic Stricker

3-6 3-2 ret.#216Lorenzo Giustino

Zsombor Piros

9W 6L

1-6 6-1 7-5#181Elmer Moller

6-2 5-7 6-4#209Tristan Boyer

6-4 6-2#319Enrico Dalla Valle

7-6(1) 6-3#500Benjamin Hassan

6-4 6-0#766Alex Knaff

6-4 6-2 6-0#86Mattia Bellucci

5-7 7-6(3) ret.#117Christopher O'Connell

6-3 5-7 6-4#178Daniil Glinka

6-2 6-1#138Max Alcala Gurri

1-6 6-0 ret.#293Max Schoenhaus

6-4 6-4#164Tom Gentzsch

6-4 6-1#321Guy Den Ouden

6-3 6-2#190Diego Dedura

7-6(1) 6-0#245Daniel Rincon

6-3 6-4#280Max Hans Rehberg

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

BHBenjamin HassanHassan

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Zsombor PirosPirosZP

Benjamin Hassan carries the stronger recent form — Zsombor Piros's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1555.7%+1.6pp57.3%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1574.2%+10.4pp63.8%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1551.0%+0.8pp51.8%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/155.5+1.73.8

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.70.4 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1537.3%+1.9pp39.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1536.5%+10.8pp47.3%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1562.1%+3.8pp58.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1550.6%+1.0pp49.6%

Serve · 3–2

55.7%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+1.6pp57.3%

74.2%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+10.4pp63.8%

51.0%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+0.8pp51.8%

5.5Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+1.73.8

2.7Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.4 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

37.3%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.9pp39.2%

Pressure · 1–1

36.5%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+10.8pp47.3%

62.1%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+3.8pp58.3%

Points · 1–0

50.6%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.0pp49.6%