PortugalWTA LisbonFinished

Predictions graded

Leyre Romero Gormaz #146Spain2Alice Rame #287France1

Sets 4-6 · 6-2 · 7-5Mon 12 Oct 2026, 16:37 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions4–640%

Edges1–420%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLeyre Romero Gormaz · 141 places

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Spain

ITF lists Romero Gormaz as 24, left-handed, and clay-preferring. Her career-high WTA singles ranking is No. 123, reached on 25 August 2025.

Current ranking: #146
Peak ranking: #123 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: —

Alice Rame

France

French right-hander ranked No. 280. Her tracked 2026 record is 5-10, with 14 of 15 matches on clay and the most recent a straight-sets win in late August. Age, height and career-high ranking are not established by the available records.

Current ranking: #287
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 02:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Romero Gormaz, the No. 146, meets No.

287 Rame in a Lisbon first round where the ranking gap is the obvious story, but Rame's straight-set habit — 11 of 14 clay matches this season — keeps it close. Romero Gormaz winning is the likelier single result; her 1.33 match price asks too much of that. Rame at 3.3, 5.25 for a 2-0 win, and 2.75 in the first and second sets are the quotes with something in them.

Context

Romero Gormaz's last recorded match was the 23 September second-round loss in Tolentino, so she reaches Lisbon after almost three weeks without competitive play, the opposite of a crowded schedule. Her preceding WTA 125 outing was a first-round exit as the No. 6 seed in Valencia, on home clay, the surface that best suits the left-hander. The Tolentino win over Polona Hercog needed a third-set tie-break, so even that run was narrowly built. Ranked No. 146 against No. 287, she carries the ranking edge, but the stretched gap between matches is the main uncertainty in reading her current level.
- Romero Gormaz was the No. 6 seed at the WTA 125 in Valencia and lost to Martina Trevisan 6-1 2-6 4-6 in the first round .
- Romero Gormaz beat Polona Hercog in a third-set tie-break to reach the Tolentino second round, then lost to Jessica Pieri 3-6 6-4 6-1 on 23 September 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 02:20 · Europe/Bucharest
Rame's straight-set profile shapes how long this first-round match is likely to last.
Only one of Rame's 14 clay matches this season went to a deciding set, and six of her defeats came in two sets, so her matches tend to resolve quickly either way. Against a higher-ranked opponent that cuts both ways: she can be beaten in two, but when she wins she tends to do it without a decider. It is a 14-match sample, not a settled pattern.
- Alice Rame's 14 clay matches from 2 June to 8 October 2026 produced scorelines of 2-0 five times, 0-2 six times, 1-2 twice and 2-1 once.
- Eleven of the 14 ended in straight sets, with only two matches featuring a tiebreak.
Romero Gormaz's clay matches have regularly stretched to a third set.
Romero Gormaz's clay season has been long and often close: eight of her 14 matches needed a third set, and she lost five of those. Her matches average 23.6 games, with 5.4 games won and 3.9 lost in opening sets. A quick two-set win for the higher-ranked player is less automatic than the ranking gap alone suggests.
- Leyre Romero Gormaz's 14 clay matches from 6 July to 23 September 2026 produced eight three-set results — five 1-2 defeats and three 2-1 wins — plus four 2-0 wins and two 0-2 defeats.
- Her clay matches average 23.6 total games, and she has won eight of 14 opening sets by a 5.4-3.9 game margin.
Rame's last match before Lisbon was the second-round loss at Heraklion, where she won the opening set against No. 11 seed Ipek Oz before dropping the next two. The Lisbon main draw begins on 12 October, so she arrives with only a few days between a Greek 50K and this WTA 125 and a change of venue to absorb. Clay has made up almost all of her 2026 schedule, so the surface itself is familiar rather than a new variable. The Heraklion event sat a level below this tournament, which limits how directly that form carries over.
- Rame, the No. 8 seed at the Heraklion 50K, beat qualifier Charlotte Pikkaart 6-2 6-2 .
- Rame then lost to No. 11 seed Ipek Oz 2-6 6-1 6-1 after winning the opening set, and her next event was the WTA 125 in Lisbon.
ReportedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 02:20 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Romero Gormaz has the higher ranking and better clay-court break-point numbers, suggesting she should edge a close match.
- Romero Gormaz is ranked 146, Rame 287.
- On clay this season, Romero Gormaz has won 52.8% of sets and 51.7% of games, while Rame has won 45.2% of sets and 48.9% of games.
- Romero Gormaz converts 56.9% of break points on clay vs Rame's 41.6%.
- Romero Gormaz saves 60.5% of break points vs Rame's 51.4%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLeyre Romero GormazEstimated chance60%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rame rarely loses by more than four games, as most of her recent defeats were either close or she won comfortably.
- Rame has covered a four-game handicap in 11 of her last 14 clay matches, based on straight-set scorelines.
- Her three recent wins were by eight, eight, and six games.
- Even in her loss to Oz, she won the first set 6-2, showing she can stay close early.
- Rame's average total games on clay is 19.9, suggesting many matches are decided by small margins.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAlice Rame +4.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Rame's wins are typically by large margins, and even in defeat she often keeps the game deficit small enough to cover this line.
- Rame's three recent clay wins came by margins of +8, +8, and +6 games.
- Rame's six straight-set losses on clay were mostly by more than two games.
- Romero Gormaz has lost three of her last four clay matches, often by close margins.
- Rame's average game margin in her last six clay matches is +0.3.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAlice Rame +2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rame's habit of finishing matches quickly, either winning or losing in straight sets, supports a lower total.
- Rame's last six clay matches averaged 19.9 total games, with four finishing under 20.
- Rame has played three sets in only 21% of her clay matches this season.
- Romero Gormaz's last match ended with 26 games, but her previous two had 33 and 25.
- Both players have high double-fault rates, but that can shorten games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The average first-set games for both players is below nine, making the under the slightly more likely outcome.
- Rame's first sets average 8.4 games on clay.
- Romero Gormaz's first sets average 9.4 games.
- The combined average is 8.9, below 9.5.
- Rame has played only two first-set tiebreaks in 14 clay matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Rame's straight-set trend and Romero Gormaz's occasional quick wins or losses point to a two-set finish.
- Rame has won or lost in straight sets in 11 of her 14 clay matches this season.
- Rame's last six clay matches include four straight-set results.
- Romero Gormaz has won 2-0 in 4 of 14 clay matches and lost 0-2 in 2.
- The combined straight-set rate from their set evidence is about 68%.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Romero Gormaz's stronger first-set record and higher ranking give her the edge to take the opening set.
- Romero Gormaz has won 8 of 14 first sets on clay this season.
- Rame has won 7 of 14 first sets on clay.
- Romero Gormaz's first-set game average is 5.4, Rame's is 4.3.
- Romero Gormaz is the higher-ranked player and favorite.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostLeyre Romero GormazEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Romero Gormaz has the better second-set record and overall clay game stats, favoring her to take the second set.
- Romero Gormaz has won 8 of 14 second sets on clay.
- Rame has won 6 of 14 second sets on clay.
- Romero Gormaz's second-set game average is 4.4, Rame's is 4.9.
- Romero Gormaz's overall game-winning percentage on clay is 51.7% vs Rame's 48.9%.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonLeyre Romero GormazEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players rarely reach tiebreaks, making a match without one the strong likelihood.
- Romero Gormaz has had 11 of 14 clay matches without a tiebreak.
- Rame has had 12 of 14 clay matches without a tiebreak.
- Combined, 82% of their matches had no tiebreak.
- Rame's six straight-set wins show she often avoids close sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players averaging few aces, the under is the more probable outcome.
- Romero Gormaz averages 2.4 aces per clay match.
- Rame averages 1.0 ace per clay match.
- Combined average is 3.4, below the 3.5 line.
- Rame has hit only 14 aces in 14 clay matches.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average sits just below the line, and Rame's low double-fault rate helps keep it under.
- Romero Gormaz averages 5.3 double faults per clay match.
- Rame averages 3.1 double faults per clay match.
- Combined average is 8.4, just under 8.5.
- Rame has kept her double faults below 3.5 per match on average.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Leyre Romero Gormaz: 9/11 recent winner projections matched

9 of 11 comparable winner projections favouring Leyre Romero Gormaz matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Leyre Romero Gormaz11 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 Jul·WTA Hamburg

#45Oleksandra Oliynykova2-1#153Leyre Romero Gormaz

BetBugsLeyre Romero Gormaz to win·55%

Missed

23 Jul 2026

WTA Hamburg

#45Oleksandra Oliynykova2-1#153Leyre Romero Gormaz

Leyre Romero Gormaz to win

55%probability

Oleksandra Oliynykova won

Missed

13 Jul·WTA Iasi

#143Leyre Romero Gormaz2-0#457Zhibek Kulambayeva

BetBugsLeyre Romero Gormaz to win·78%

Matched

13 Jul 2026

WTA Iasi

#143Leyre Romero Gormaz2-0#457Zhibek Kulambayeva

Leyre Romero Gormaz to win

78%probability

Leyre Romero Gormaz won

Matched

12 Jul·WTA Iasi

#143Leyre Romero Gormaz2-0—Cristiana Nicoleta Todoni

BetBugsLeyre Romero Gormaz to win·78%

Matched

12 Jul 2026

WTA Iasi

#143Leyre Romero Gormaz2-0—Cristiana Nicoleta Todoni

Leyre Romero Gormaz to win

78%probability

Leyre Romero Gormaz won

Matched

8 Jul·WTA Bastad

#248Miriam Bianca Bulgaru0-2#143Leyre Romero Gormaz

BetBugsLeyre Romero Gormaz to win·65%

Matched

8 Jul 2026

WTA Bastad

#248Miriam Bianca Bulgaru0-2#143Leyre Romero Gormaz

Leyre Romero Gormaz to win

65%probability

Leyre Romero Gormaz won

Matched

6 Jul·WTA Bastad

#143Leyre Romero Gormaz2-1#104Darja Semenistaja

BetBugsLeyre Romero Gormaz to win·55%

Matched

6 Jul 2026

WTA Bastad

#143Leyre Romero Gormaz2-1#104Darja Semenistaja

Leyre Romero Gormaz to win

55%probability

Leyre Romero Gormaz won

Matched

Leyre Romero Gormaz

7W 8L

3-6 6-4 6-1#323Jessica Pieri

6-7(4) 6-1 7-6(3)#237Polona Hercog

1-6 6-2 6-4#307Martina Trevisan

7-5 6-1#168Alevtina Ibragimova

6-7(8) 7-5 7-6(6)#225Berfu Cengiz

4-6 6-4 7-5#143Joanna Garland

3-6 6-3 6-3#194Sara Sorribes Tormo

7-6(3) 3-6 6-2#47Oleksandra Oliynykova

6-2 6-2#153Veronika Erjavec

6-3 4-6 6-3#79Panna Udvardy

6-1 6-4#484Zhibek Kulambayeva

6-0 6-3#759Cristiana Nicoleta Todoni

6-2 6-1#98Simona Waltert

6-3 6-3#344Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

6-2 2-6 6-2#124Darja Semenistaja

Alice Rame

6W 9L

2-6 6-1 6-1#365Ipek Oz

6-2 6-2—Charlotte Pikkaart

7-6(6) 6-7(6) 6-1#467Anja Stankovic

6-2 6-2#425Katerina Tsygourova

6-1 6-2#105Francesca Jones

6-2 6-4#364Margaux Rouvroy

6-2 5-7 6-1#229Julie Struplova

6-0 6-4#168Alevtina Ibragimova

6-1 6-2#256Anastasia Tikhonova

6-1 7-5#130Noma Akugue Noha

6-2 7-5#105Francesca Jones

6-3 5-7 6-2#273Caroline Werner

7-6(3) 7-6(4)#434Laura Mair

6-2 6-3#384Diletta Cherubini

6-2 6-4#719Emily Seibold

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LGLeyre Romero GormazGormaz

Last 15

4–2

9 core stats · 3 even

Alice RameRameAR

Leyre Romero Gormaz carries the stronger recent form — Alice Rame's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

1st Serve In54.7%+6.3pp61.0%

1st Serve Won59.9%—60.4%

2nd Serve Won46.0%—45.6%

Aces / Match2.7+1.71.0

Double Faults / Match5.52.6 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won46.0%+1.8pp44.2%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted55.1%+13.3pp41.8%

Break Pts Saved62.7%+12.3pp50.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won49.9%—49.2%

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

54.7%1st Serve In+6.3pp61.0%

59.9%1st Serve Won—60.4%

46.0%2nd Serve Won—45.6%

2.7Aces / Match+1.71.0

5.5Double Faults / Match2.6 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

46.0%Return Pts Won+1.8pp44.2%

Pressure · 2–0

55.1%Break Pts Converted+13.3pp41.8%

62.7%Break Pts Saved+12.3pp50.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.9%Total Pts Won—49.2%

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Alice Rame

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Alice Rame

Alice Rame

Alice Rame

Alice Rame 2-0

Under 2.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Alice Rame

Stat Battle