PortugalMaia - PortugalFinished

Predictions graded

Florian Broska #334Germany2Sergi Perez Contri #446Spain1

Sets 6-3 · 2-6 · 7-6Mon 12 Oct 2026, 10:08 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions6–367%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFlorian Broska · 112 places

Florian Broska

Germany

The ITF lists clay as his preferred surface. His current ranking is No. 290 in the supplied structured reference; reliable public profiles did not resolve an exact career-high ranking and date.

Current ranking: #334
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Sergi Perez Contri

Spain

Perez Contri, 28, is the 1.75m left-hander in this matchup. His recorded career-high ranking is No. 447 in July 2026; no verified preferred-surface declaration was found.

Current ranking: #446
Peak ranking: #447 · 2026
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 01:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Higher-ranked Broska against left-handed Perez in the last qualifying round: Broska has the better clay ranking and takes the opening set far more often (9 of 15 to 5 of 14), so he is the likelier winner in ordinary terms, but not comfortably.

Broska at 1.44 for the match and 1.45 for the first set both ask more than his record supports. Perez at 2.6 is the one quoted price that offers value.

Context

Broska's 9-6 clay record includes five 2-1 wins and four 1-2 defeats, so his matches have usually been settled in a third set.
Broska's clay sample from 7 July to 11 October 2026 shows matches that last: 26.0 games and 2.6 sets on average, with five 2-1 wins and four 1-2 defeats. Nine of the 15 contained a tiebreak. Perez's own matches run 24.9 games and 2.5 sets, so a quick straight-sets finish for either man would go against both samples. Small samples make this a tendency rather than a forecast.
- 15 completed clay matches from 7 July to 11 October 2026, averaging 26.0 total games and 2.6 sets.
- Scorelines across that sample: 2-1 five times, 1-2 four times, 2-0 four times, 0-2 twice.
- Nine of the 15 matches included at least one tiebreak.
Perez lost the first set in 9 of his 14 completed clay matches between 16 July and 11 October 2026.
Perez's first-set record is the weakest part of his clay sample: five wins in 14 matches, 4.36 games won against 5.71 lost, and five tiebreaks. Broska won the opening set in 9 of 15 and averages 5.4 games to 4.87. That points to Broska leading early, though Perez has won 8 of 14 second sets and regularly recovers inside matches; both samples are small.
- Perez won the first set in 5 of 14 completed clay matches from 16 July to 11 October 2026.
- In those first sets he averaged 4.36 games won and 5.71 games lost.
- Five of his 14 first sets reached a tiebreak.
Maia is the highest-tier men's tournament among the Portuguese events running in the same week, so it carries a larger ranking reward than the 75 and 50-level Challengers on the calendar. That matters for players ranked in the 300s to 400s, for whom a small number of main-draw points can move them several places. The tier and the compressed schedule are shared by both competitors and so do not create an edge in this match; their value is in setting the stakes and explaining why the entry list includes players arriving directly from Braga or Lisbon.
- the Portuguese calendar included the Braga Challenger 75 final, WTA 125 Lisbon qualifying and qualifying at the ATP Challenger 100 in Maia.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 01:09 · Europe/Bucharest
Perez's most recent completed clay match showed a slow start and a much stronger finish.
Perez's most recent completed clay match, on 11 October 2026, was a 2-1 win over Tiago Cacao (ranked 649) that began with a 2-6 first set and finished 6-3, 6-1. It is the freshest evidence in his record and it fits the split profile of slow starts and stronger later sets. One match against a player ranked 649 is recent form, not proof he repeats the recovery against a higher-ranked opponent.
- 11 October 2026: beat Tiago Cacao (ranked 649) 2-1, 14 games to 10.
- Set scores: 2-6, 6-3, 6-1.
- Cacao is ranked 649; this is the most recent completed match in Perez's supplied record.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Florian Broska

1.45fair 1.69

BetBugs 59% · Market 69%

−10.0ppshort

Broska's stronger opening sets and Perez's slow starts point to Broska taking set one.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Broska's higher ranking and stronger first-set record give him a slight edge in a close clay qualifier.
- Broska is ranked 334, Perez 446.
- Broska is 9-6 in 15 clay matches; Perez is 8-6 in 14 clay matches.
- Broska has won 53.1% of clay games and 56.4% of clay sets; Perez's game and set rates are unavailable.
- Broska has won 9 of 15 clay first sets; Perez has won 5 of 14.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFlorian BroskaEstimated chance55%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Their opening sets usually last at least ten games.
- Broska's set1 total games average is 10.27.
- Perez's set1 total games average is 10.07.
- Both players had 5 first-set tiebreaks in their clay samples.
- Both players' set1 averages are above 10 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Their clay matches regularly stretch past 25 games, especially when a third set is needed.
- Broska's clay matches average 26.0 total games.
- Perez's clay matches average 24.9 total games.
- Both players had a tiebreak in over half of their clay matches.
- Both players average more than 2.5 sets per clay match.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 25.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets also tend to reach at least ten games.
- Broska's set2 total games average is 10.13.
- Perez's set2 total games average is 10.07.
- Both players had 3 second-set tiebreaks in their clay samples.
- Both players' set2 averages are above 10 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players often go the distance on clay, making a deciding set likely.
- Broska's clay matches average 2.6 sets.
- Perez's clay matches average 2.5 sets.
- Broska has played 9 three-set matches in 15 clay matches.
- Perez has played 7 three-set matches in 14 clay matches.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Broska's stronger opening sets and Perez's slow starts point to Broska taking set one.
- Broska won the first set in 9 of 15 clay matches.
- Perez won the first set in 5 of 14 clay matches.
- Broska's set1 games average is 5.4 won to 4.87 lost.
- Perez's set1 games average is 4.36 won to 5.71 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonFlorian BroskaEstimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Broska gets a narrow second-set edge from his overall match advantage, but the set-two records are very close.
- Broska won set2 in 8 of 15 clay matches.
- Perez won set2 in 8 of 14 clay matches.
- Broska's set2 games average is 5.33 won to 4.8 lost.
- Perez's set2 games average is 5.57 won to 4.5 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostFlorian BroskaEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are often involved in tight sets that reach a tiebreak.
- Broska had a tiebreak in 9 of 15 clay matches.
- Perez had a tiebreak in 8 of 14 clay matches.
- Broska's clay matches average 26 total games.
- Perez's clay matches average 24.9 total games.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance64%

Florian Broska

9W 6L

6-3 6-7(6) 6-1#554Adrian Oetzbach

4-6 6-3 6-2#180Lukas Neumayer

6-7(4) 6-3 6-4#517Adrian Boitan

6-2 4-6 7-6(7)#800Rares Teodor Pieleanu

6-2 6-3#872Robert Guna

6-1 7-6(3)#478Federico Arnaboldi

6-3 7-5#310Sean Cuenin

7-6(1) 3-6 7-5#255Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

6-7(5) 6-4 6-4#191Jan Kumstat

3-6 6-2 6-3#278Petr Bar Biryukov

6-7(4) 6-4 6-1#216Lorenzo Giustino

6-3 6-2#232Kimmer Coppejans

7-6(4) 6-4#198Felix Balshaw

5-7 7-6(5) 6-2#168Gauthier Onclin

6-2 6-3#613Kai Wehnelt

Sergi Perez Contri

9W 6L

2-6 6-3 6-1#649Tiago Cacao

7-6(6) 1-6 6-4#892Nicolas Barrientos

6-7(3) 6-4 6-4#563Alexander Ritschard

7-6(4) 7-6(4)#563Alexander Ritschard

2-6 7-6(0) 6-2#633Pedro Rodenas

6-4 5-7 6-4#784Carles Hernandez

5-1 ret.#792Carles Cordoba

7-6(2) 6-4#650Ignacio Parisca

6-3 6-4#563Alexander Ritschard

3-6 6-4 7-6(3)#638Carlos Lopez Montagud

2-6 6-1 6-3—Bernardo Munk Mesa

7-6(2) 6-1—Pablo Aunion

6-2 7-6(9)#650Ignacio Parisca

6-2 6-4#686Pablo Martinez Gomez

6-2 6-4#593Alejandro Juan Mano

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FBFlorian BroskaBroska

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Sergi Perez ContriContriSC

Florian Broska carries the stronger recent form — Sergi Perez Contri's route runs through return.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In60.8%+5.6pp66.4%

1st Serve Won70.7%+11.4pp59.3%

2nd Serve Won54.8%+5.3pp49.5%

Aces / Match4.5+3.90.6

Double Faults / Match2.71.9 fewer4.6

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won38.2%+8.3pp46.5%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted49.5%+5.6pp43.9%

Break Pts Saved63.0%+12.2pp50.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.5%—51.0%

Serve · 4–1

60.8%1st Serve In+5.6pp66.4%

70.7%1st Serve Won+11.4pp59.3%

54.8%2nd Serve Won+5.3pp49.5%

4.5Aces / Match+3.90.6

2.7Double Faults / Match1.9 fewer4.6

Return · 0–1

38.2%Return Pts Won+8.3pp46.5%

Pressure · 2–0

49.5%Break Pts Converted+5.6pp43.9%

63.0%Break Pts Saved+12.2pp50.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.5%Total Pts Won—51.0%