ItalyWTA RoveretoFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Elsa Jacquemot #165France0Lea Boskovic #329Croatia2

Sets 3-6 · 2-6Mon 12 Oct 2026, 08:45 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions6–555%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageElsa Jacquemot · 164 places

Elsa Jacquemot

France

Reached a career-high No. 53 on February 2, 2026 and entered Warsaw at No. 101. She is a 176 cm right-hander and won the 2020 Roland Garros girls' singles title.

Current ranking: #165
Peak ranking: #53 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 176 cm

Lea Boskovic

Croatia

Boskovic, 26, is a right-hander who reached her career-high singles ranking of No. 158 in September 2024.

Current ranking: #329
Peak ranking: #158 · 2024
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 179 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 00:25 · Europe/Bucharest

One qualifying match decides a place in the Rovereto main draw: Jacquemot, No. 165, against Boskovic, No.

329. Jacquemot is the likelier winner, but her hard-court window stands at 7-8 and Boskovic has just won 6-1 6-1. Two quoted prices carry value: Boskovic to win the match at 4.25 and Over 2.5 sets at 2.75, while Jacquemot at 1.22 and Under 2.5 sets at 1.36 do not.

Context

A single qualifying match decides which player enters the Rovereto main draw, so the fixture has direct knockout consequence with no second chance. Jacquemot is the qualifying top seed and the higher-ranked player at No. 165, and she dropped three games against Camilla Zanolini; Boskovic, No. 329, dropped two against Alja Senica, so both arrive with short opening wins. The 164-place ranking gap and Jacquemot's seeding favour her on a hard court, but both players sit well below their career-high rankings and one match settles the outcome.
- Jacquemot and Boskovic are drawn in the Rovereto qualifying final
- The winner advances to the WTA 125 main draw
- Jacquemot beat Camilla Zanolini 6-1 6-2 in the opening qualifying round
- Boskovic beat Alja Senica 6-1 6-1 in the opening qualifying round
ReportedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 00:23 · Europe/Bucharest
It is the heaviest listed defeat in Jacquemot's recent rows and came against the highest-ranked opponent among them. She won two games across the two sets on hard court. Her qualifying opener six days later, a 6-1 6-2 win over Camilla Zanolini, shows the other end of her range, but it does not change how quickly the Liu match got away.
- 5 October 2026: Jacquemot lost 1-6 1-6 to Claire Liu (ranked 97) on hard court, winning two games
Only one of the four, a 12-2 win over a player ranked 656, was settled without a third set; the other three ran to 29, 22 and 33 games. She averages 24.5 games per match, against 20.1 games across Jacquemot's larger 15-match hard-court sample. Four matches describe a recent habit rather than a fixed pattern.
- Hard-court record 2-2 across four matches (22 September to 11 October 2026)
- Scorelines in that sample: one 2-0 win, one 2-1 win, one 1-2 loss, one 0-2 loss
- Average 24.5 games and 2.5 sets per match; one of the four matches featured a tiebreak
A 72.3% first-serve rate across 15 matches is a real strength, and it lets her begin most points on her own terms. The follow-up is the concern: 58.1% of those points won, 41.0% on second serve and 3.7 double faults per match leave returners opportunities. Her 49.2% of total points won over the same 15 matches shows the serve numbers do not yet add up to control of rallies.
- Last 15 matches: first serves in 72.3% (829 of 1146)
- First-serve points won 58.1% (482 of 829); second-serve points won 41.0% (130 of 317)
- 3.7 double faults per match and 49.2% of total points won over the same 15 matches

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Jacquemot is the higher-ranked player, has been facing top-100 opposition, and won four of the six hard-court matches in this window including a quick straight-set win this week.
- Ranked 165 against Boskovic's 329 in a hard-court qualifier
- Hard-court last 15: 7-8, with recent wins over opponents ranked 245 and 311 and a 6-1 6-2 win yesterday
- Hard-court sets won 45.5% (15/33), total points won 51.1%
- Boskovic's hard-court sample is only 4 matches, 2-2
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostElsa JacquemotEstimated chance62%

Games4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Boskovic's recent hard-court matches have generally been decided by narrow margins, so a larger Jacquemot winning margin is the less likely route.
- Three of Boskovic's four hard-court matches stayed within five games of the opponent
- Her only larger margin was a 12-2 win over a player ranked 656
- Jacquemot's last six hard-court margins range from -10 to +9
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonLea Boskovic +5.5Estimated chance69%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Boskovic has kept her hard-court margins within three games in two of four matches, and Jacquemot has been beaten heavily in this window.
- Boskovic's four hard-court game margins: +10, -3, -4, +3
- Jacquemot's last six hard-court matches include 2-12 and 8-13 defeats
- Jacquemot's average hard-court match total is 20.1 games
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonLea Boskovic +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jacquemot's second sets have mostly finished inside ten games, and her larger sample carries more weight than Boskovic's four matches.
- Jacquemot's hard-court second sets average 8.7 total games
- Boskovic's hard-court second sets average 10.0 total games
- Jacquemot's second sets average 4.6 games won and 4.1 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets have typically lasted around ten games, which sits just above the 9.5 line.
- Jacquemot's hard-court first sets average 9.7 total games
- Boskovic's hard-court first sets average 10.5 total games
- 3 of Jacquemot's 15 hard-court matches featured a first-set tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The larger sample of Jacquemot's matches suggests the total usually stays under 22.5 games when she is involved.
- Jacquemot's hard-court matches average 20.1 total games over 15 matches
- Jacquemot's average hard-court match lasts 102 minutes
- Boskovic's current-surface average is 24.5 games from only 4 matches
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 22.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Across both players' larger samples, two-set finishes are clearly the common outcome on hard courts.
- 12 of Jacquemot's 15 hard-court matches finished in two sets
- Her hard-court matches average 2.2 sets
- Boskovic's overall average is 2.33 sets per match over 15 matches
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jacquemot has been slightly better in second sets than first sets and holds the overall advantage in the match.
- Jacquemot's hard-court second sets: 7 wins, 8 losses from 15 matches
- Boskovic's hard-court second sets: 2 wins, 2 losses
- Jacquemot's second sets average 9.1 games per match
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostElsa JacquemotEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jacquemot is the stronger player overall and won her opening set comfortably in her most recent match, though she has started slowly across the wider sample.
- Jacquemot's hard-court first sets: 6 wins, 9 losses from 15 matches
- Boskovic's hard-court first sets: 2 wins, 2 losses
- Jacquemot won the opening set in both of her straight-set wins this week
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostElsa JacquemotEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks are absent from most of both players' completed hard-court matches in this window.
- 10 of Jacquemot's 15 hard-court matches had no tiebreak
- 3 of Boskovic's 4 hard-court matches had no tiebreak
- Jacquemot's last two matches ended 6-1 6-2 and 1-6 1-6
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jacquemot's serve produces enough aces on its own that a combined total above six is realistic.
- Jacquemot averages 4.9 aces per hard-court match over 15 matches
- Boskovic averages 2.8 aces per hard-court match over 4 matches and 1.4 across 15 overall
- Jacquemot has hit 73 aces in 15 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players give away a high number of double faults, so the combined total sits close to or above the line.
- Jacquemot averages 5.1 double faults per hard-court match over 15 matches
- Boskovic averages 4.3 double faults per hard-court match over 4 matches and 3.7 across 15 overall
- Boskovic's average hard-court match lasts 125 minutes
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Elsa Jacquemot

7W 8L

6-1 6-2#441Camilla Zanolini

6-1 6-1#97Claire Liu

7-5 3-6 6-4#48Magdalena Frech

6-3 6-4#245Vivian Wolff

6-4 6-0#311Zongyu Li

7-6(6) 6-2#39Liudmila Samsonova

6-1 7-6(5)#89Anna Blinkova

6-7(5) 6-1 6-1#256Anastasia Tikhonova

7-6(3) 6-2#112Kayla Day

6-0 6-0—Emanuela Lares

6-4 6-7(5) 6-1#564Ekaterina Ovcharenko

6-2 6-2#27Marie Bouzkova

6-3 6-3#64Anna Bondar

7-5 6-3#152Rebecca Sramkova

6-4 6-4#148Carol Young Suh Lee

Lea Boskovic

6W 9L

6-1 6-1#656Alja Senica

7-6(2) 3-6 6-1#481Nahia Berecoechea

6-4 7-5#431Tiphanie Lemaitre

7-5 5-7 6-3#377Lea Nilsson

6-2 7-5#180Anastasiia Sobolieva

6-7(6) 7-6(5) 6-2#383Raluca Georgiana Serban

6-0 6-4#190Samira De Stefano

7-5 6-3#396Ksenia Zaytseva

7-5 6-4#459Tahlia Kokkinis

6-0 6-4#353Lucija Ciric Bagaric

4-6 6-4 7-5#266Katarina Zavatska

6-1 6-2#322Sakura Hosogi

4-6 6-0 6-4#126Dominika Salkova

6-4 6-4#384Diletta Cherubini

6-4 6-3#201Eva Vedder

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EJElsa JacquemotJacquemot

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Lea BoskovicBoskovicLB

Elsa Jacquemot carries the stronger recent form — Lea Boskovic's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In56.7%+15.6pp72.3%

1st Serve Won69.3%+11.2pp58.1%

2nd Serve Won44.9%+3.9pp41.0%

Aces / Match4.9+3.51.4

Double Faults / Match5.11.4 fewer3.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won43.7%+1.1pp44.8%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted48.6%—48.1%

Break Pts Saved51.5%+1.5pp50.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.1%+1.9pp49.2%

Serve · 3–2

56.7%1st Serve In+15.6pp72.3%

69.3%1st Serve Won+11.2pp58.1%

44.9%2nd Serve Won+3.9pp41.0%

4.9Aces / Match+3.51.4

5.1Double Faults / Match1.4 fewer3.7

Return · 0–1

43.7%Return Pts Won+1.1pp44.8%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

48.6%Break Pts Converted—48.1%

51.5%Break Pts Saved+1.5pp50.0%

Points · 1–0

51.1%Total Pts Won+1.9pp49.2%