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Predictions graded

Alejo Sanchez Quilez #375Spain2Ivan Gakhov #434Russia1

Sets 6-3 · 4-6 · 7-5Mon 12 Oct 2026, 13:16 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions4–450%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlejo Sanchez Quilez · 59 places

Alejo Sanchez Quilez

Spain

Reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 387 on 24 August 2026. No reliable public declaration of a preferred surface was found.

Current ranking: #375
Peak ranking: #387 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Ivan Gakhov

Russia

His career-high singles ranking is No. 142, achieved on 19 June 2023. Clay accounts for the majority of his recorded career singles matches.

Current ranking: #434
Peak ranking: #142 · 2023
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 00:53 · Europe/Bucharest

Maia qualifying for a main-draw place sets clay continuity against a short clay sample: Ivan Gakhov has 15 recent clay matches and 12 opening sets won, Alejo Sanchez Quilez three.

Gakhov looks the likelier winner, and the 2.2 match-winner price is judged to carry value, with an edge of about 12.5 points; nothing else reviewed does.

Context

The second qualifying round at Maia decides which player reaches the main draw, so the loser leaves the event without a main-draw place. Both won an opening qualifying match, but Sanchez Quilez needed three sets (4-6, 6-4, 6-2) while Gakhov won in straight sets (6-1, 6-4), a workload difference inside a one-day turnaround. The main-draw opponent is not yet fixed, and short qualifying turnarounds are routine at this level, so the recovery gap is a minor rather than a controlling factor.
- Sanchez Quilez beat Vasco Leote Prata 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 in Maia qualifying
- Gakhov beat Joao Dinis Silva 6-1, 6-4 in Maia qualifying
- The second qualifying round at Maia decides who reaches the main draw
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 00:51 · Europe/BucharestFanzizwww.fanziz.com · 11 Oct 2026Tennis Templeen.tennistemple.com · 11 Oct 2026
This is the only direct meeting between the two, and it ended with Gakhov recovering from a set down to win on clay in April 2025. It is the clearest reference for how the matchup has played out, and it shows Sanchez Quilez can take a set before Gakhov's left-handed clay patterns take over. The match came at a different event more than a year earlier, when Sanchez Quilez was a lower-ranked teenager, so it does not settle current form.
- Gakhov beat Sanchez Quilez 2-6, 6-4, 6-4 in the Reus quarter-finals on 4 April 2025
- The two players have met once before
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 00:51 · Europe/BucharestTennis Templeen.tennistemple.com · 11 Oct 2026
Maia is a clay event, and Gakhov has played all 15 of his tracked recent matches on clay while Sanchez Quilez has played only three of his last 15 on the surface. That gives Gakhov the more continuous clay preparation and suits a left-hander whose game is built around clay-court patterns, whereas Sanchez Quilez has been competing mainly on hard courts. The samples are small and surface history does not by itself decide a single qualifying match, and Sanchez Quilez did win a clay match in the Maia opening round.
- All 15 of Gakhov's tracked recent matches were played on clay
- Three of Sanchez Quilez's last 15 tracked matches were on clay
- The Maia qualifying matches were played on clay
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 00:51 · Europe/BucharestTennis Templeen.tennistemple.com · 11 Oct 2026Fanzizwww.fanziz.com · 11 Oct 2026
Across those 15 clay matches Gakhov's first sets averaged 9.3 games and produced one tiebreak, so he has usually separated early. Sanchez Quilez has lost all three opening sets in his own three tracked clay matches. Gakhov was still taken to a third set in seven of the 15, so an early lead has not always finished quickly.
- Across 15 clay matches from 26 August to 11 October 2026, Gakhov won 12 first sets and lost three
- Those first sets averaged 9.3 total games with one tiebreak
- Seven of the 15 clay matches went to a third set

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Gakhov has much more recent clay evidence and a stronger first-set and service record on the surface, plus a comeback win in their only meeting.
- Gakhov is 9-6 in 15 clay matches; Sanchez Quilez is 1-2 in 3 clay matches.
- Gakhov has won 12 of 15 first sets on clay; Sanchez Quilez has lost all 3.
- Gakhov won their only meeting 2-6 6-4 6-4 on clay.
- Gakhov's clay first-serve points won is 70.4% vs Sanchez Quilez's 61.9%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostIvan GakhovEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second-set averages sit below or near the 9.5 line, and tiebreaks are rare.
- Gakhov's clay second sets average 8.93 total games.
- Sanchez Quilez's clay second sets average 9.33 total games.
- Only one tiebreak in Gakhov's 15 clay second sets.
- Gakhov's second-set average is below 9.5.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent clay matches average around or above the 22.5-game line, and their only meeting was a long three-setter.
- Gakhov's clay matches average 23.1 total games.
- Sanchez Quilez's clay matches average 22.3 total games.
- Their only meeting produced 26 games.
- Gakhov has played three sets in 7 of 15 clay matches.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gakhov's first-set dominance suggests shorter opening sets, and his average is below the line.
- Gakhov's clay first sets average 9.33 total games.
- Gakhov has won 12 of 15 first sets on clay, often with a break.
- Sanchez Quilez has lost all 3 clay first sets.
- Gakhov's first-set average is below 9.5.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gakhov's first-set record on clay is dominant, while Sanchez Quilez has not won an opening set in his tracked clay matches.
- Gakhov has won 12 of 15 first sets on clay.
- Sanchez Quilez has lost all 3 first sets on clay.
- Gakhov's clay first-serve points won is 70.4%.
- Sanchez Quilez's clay first-serve points won is 61.9%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostIvan GakhovEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gakhov's second-set record is modest but better than Sanchez Quilez's, and his clay break-point numbers are stronger.
- Gakhov has won 7 of 15 second sets on clay.
- Sanchez Quilez has won 1 of 3 second sets on clay.
- Gakhov's clay break points converted is 51.5%.
- Sanchez Quilez's clay break points saved is 45.5%.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonIvan GakhovEstimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their recent clay sets have been decided without a tiebreak, so no tiebreak is more likely.
- Gakhov's 15 clay matches included only 4 tiebreaks.
- Sanchez Quilez's 3 clay matches included 1 tiebreak.
- Their only meeting had no tiebreak.
- Gakhov's clay second sets average 8.93 total games.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Their combined clay ace averages sit below 6.5, and clay is a slower surface.
- Gakhov averages 3.7 aces per clay match.
- Sanchez Quilez averages 2.0 aces per clay match.
- Their combined clay average is about 5.7 aces.
- Sanchez Quilez has played only 3 clay matches.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Their combined average is below 5.5, and Sanchez Quilez's low double-fault rate offsets Gakhov's.
- Gakhov averages 3.9 double faults per clay match.
- Sanchez Quilez averages 1.0 double fault per clay match.
- Their combined clay average is about 4.9.
- Sanchez Quilez's low double-fault rate offsets Gakhov's.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance55%

Alejo Sanchez Quilez

9W 6L

4-6 6-4 6-2—Vasco Leote Prata

6-2 6-4#245Daniel Rincon

6-1 6-2#96Jacob Fearnley

6-0 4-6 6-1#470Fausto Tabacco

6-3 3-6 6-1#531Alexander Donski

6-2 6-2#312Oriol Roca Batalla

7-6(4) 6-4#769Alejandro Turriziani Alvarez

6-2 6-3#149Mark Lajal

7-5 7-6(5)#238Maks Kasnikowski

7-5 6-4#453Felipe Meligeni Alves

6-4 6-4#428Izan Almazan Valiente

6-3 7-6(5)#729Aryan Shah

7-6(2) 6-2#853Andrea Colombo

7-6(0) 7-5#594Goncalo Marques

6-4 6-3#767Rafael Izquierdo Luque

Ivan Gakhov

9W 6L

6-1 6-4—Joao Dinis Silva

6-2 6-3#619Yanaki Milev

4-6 6-2 7-6(7)—Nicolas Ifi

5-7 6-2 6-4#449Gerard Campana Lee

6-2 6-4#701Oscar Jose Gutierrez

6-4 6-4#650Ignacio Parisca

6-3 6-2—Xavi Palomar

4-6 6-2 6-2#196Zdenek Kolar

6-2 1-6 6-2#325Dali Blanch

6-3 6-2—Oliwier Sterniczuk

4-6 6-3 6-2#458Oleg Prihodko

7-6(3) 6-4#563Alexander Ritschard

6-4 6-0—Samuel De Felipe Garcia

2-6 7-6(8) 7-5#619Yanaki Milev

6-2 4-6 7-6(4)—Enrique Carrascosa Diaz

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AQAlejo Sanchez QuilezQuilez

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Ivan GakhovGakhovIG

Ivan Gakhov carries the stronger recent form — Alejo Sanchez Quilez's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In57.8%+2.6pp55.2%

1st Serve Won65.8%+4.6pp70.4%

2nd Serve Won51.6%+4.6pp47.0%

Aces / Match2.5+1.23.7

Double Faults / Match1.32.6 fewer3.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won40.6%+0.9pp41.5%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted40.0%+11.5pp51.5%

Break Pts Saved55.8%+6.3pp62.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.2%—50.9%

Serve · 3–2

57.8%1st Serve In+2.6pp55.2%

65.8%1st Serve Won+4.6pp70.4%

51.6%2nd Serve Won+4.6pp47.0%

2.5Aces / Match+1.23.7

1.3Double Faults / Match2.6 fewer3.9

Return · 0–1

40.6%Return Pts Won+0.9pp41.5%

Pressure · 0–2

40.0%Break Pts Converted+11.5pp51.5%

55.8%Break Pts Saved+6.3pp62.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.2%Total Pts Won—50.9%