SpainWTA MallorcaFinished

Predictions graded

Isabella Shinikova #3751Aneta Kucmova #506Czechia2

Sets 1-6 · 7-6 · 3-6Sun 11 Oct 2026, 08:15 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions7–558%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageIsabella Shinikova · 131 places

Isabella Shinikova

Shinikova, 34, is right-handed and lists hard as her favourite surface. She reached No. 133 in 2017.

Current ranking: #375
Peak ranking: #133 · 2017
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 184 cm

Aneta Kucmova

Czechia

Kucmova is a Czech player who lists clay as her preferred surface and is ranked No. 506. She won her first WTA 125 doubles title in Antalya in September 2026 alongside compatriot Aneta Laboutkova.

Current ranking: #506
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Oct 2026, 08:15 · Europe/Bucharest

A WTA 125 qualifying opener on clay in Mallorca: Kucmova arrives with the better recent clay record, while Shinikova, the higher-ranked player at No. 375, has lost her last four completed matches.

Kucmova is the likelier winner, but the only price reviewed — Kucmova at 1.5 — asks for roughly a 67% chance that her form does not support, and no quoted price here offers value.

Context

Shinikova brings the thinner clay record into the Mallorca qualifying round, though she is the higher-ranked player at No. 375.
Across those seven matches Shinikova averaged 21.6 total games and 2.29 sets, with scorelines of 2-0 twice, 0-2 three times and 1-2 twice. None of the seven matches contained a tiebreak, so her sets were usually settled before 6-6. The sample is small, one retirement was excluded, and it shows her losing more clay matches than she wins.
- Shinikova's tracked clay record: 2-5 in 7 matches, 18 July to 13 September 2026, one retirement excluded.
- Set records: 3-4 in first sets and 3-4 in second sets; 21.6 total games and 2.29 sets per match.
- Scorelines: 2-0 twice, 0-2 three times and 1-2 twice; no tiebreaks in the sample.
Kucmova carries the stronger clay record of the two into the Mallorca qualifying round.
Her 13 matches averaged 23.0 games and 2.54 sets, with four 2-1 wins and three 1-2 losses, so deciding sets have been common. She also held a positive second-set record at 7-6, winning 5.08 games against 4.38 lost. Two retirements were excluded from the sample and the record covers only this surface.
- Kucmova's tracked clay record: 8-5 in 13 matches, 12 May to 21 September 2026, two retirements excluded.
- First sets 8-5, second sets 7-6; 23.0 total games and 2.54 sets per match.
- Four 2-1 wins, three 1-2 losses and one tiebreak across the 13 matches.
That result is the most recent completed singles evidence for Kucmova before Mallorca.
The 3-12 margin is the heaviest in Kucmova's six most recent completed matches listed here, and it came against an opponent ranked No. 323, closer to Shinikova's ranking than to Kucmova's own. It is one match and sits alongside the wider 8-5 clay record, but it shows how far her results can fall on this surface.
- On 21 September 2026 Kucmova lost on clay to Jessica Pieri, ranked No. 323, in straight sets.
- Games: 3-12; sets 0-6, 3-6; the match was not a retirement.
This is the opening round of qualifying, so the winner must still win further matches to reach the main draw of the WTA 125 event, whose main competition runs October 12–18. Both players sit outside the top 350 and have no direct entry, so this qualifying path is their route into the tournament. The fixture is on clay, the surface Kucmova has played on almost exclusively in recent months, while Shinikova lists hard as her preferred surface. The main-draw field, including a host wild card, is already set, so neither player has a protected place at this stage.
- Qualifying first round is scheduled for Sunday,, on Court 2 at 08:00 UTC.
- The event is a WTA 125 tournament on clay in Mallorca, with the main draw from October 12 to 18, 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 08:14 · Europe/BucharestWTASchedulewww.wtaschedule.com · 11 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Aneta Kucmova

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

−6.7ppshort

Kucmova has won comfortably more than half of her recent clay matches while Shinikova has lost five of seven, so recent form points to Kucmova.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Kucmova has won comfortably more than half of her recent clay matches while Shinikova has lost five of seven, so recent form points to Kucmova.
- Kucmova is 8-5 (13 matches) on clay; Shinikova is 2-5 (7 matches) on clay
- Kucmova's clay set records: 8-5 in first sets, 7-6 in second sets
- Shinikova has lost her last four completed matches, two of them on clay
- Kucmova beat No. 170 Anna Siskova on clay in July
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAneta KucmovaEstimated chance60%

Games3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Shinikova has usually stayed within six games on clay, so a large start covers most of her recent results.
- Shinikova's heaviest tracked clay defeat was by nine games, against No. 224 Herrero Linana
- Four of Shinikova's six tracked clay matches were decided by six games or fewer
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostIsabella Shinikova +5.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Shinikova has shown she can keep clay matches tight against comparable opposition, and Kucmova's results vary widely.
- Shinikova lost 14-16 to Cherubini on clay, inside this line
- Kucmova lost 3-12 to No. 323 Pieri in her most recent clay match
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostIsabella Shinikova +3.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kucmova's clay matches have been settled by clear margins rather than one-game finishes, which supports giving up a small start.
- Kucmova's tracked clay game margins: +8, +7, +6, +3 in wins and -9, -4 in losses
- All six of Kucmova's tracked clay matches were decided by at least three games
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAneta Kucmova -1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets in the tracked clay matches have generally been short, favouring an under.
- Kucmova's first sets average 8.5 total games on clay
- No first-set tiebreaks recorded in 20 combined clay matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have mostly stayed at or below the line for both players.
- Shinikova's second sets average 9.3 total games on clay
- Kucmova's second sets average 9.5 games in the tracked sample
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' clay matches sit around the 22-to-23 game mark, so the line is close to a coin flip with a slight lean over.
- Kucmova's tracked clay matches average 23.0 total games
- Shinikova's tracked clay matches average 21.6 total games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kucmova starts clay matches better than Shinikova on the tracked evidence, with a winning first-set record and a positive games balance.
- Kucmova is 8-5 in opening sets on clay; Shinikova is 3-4
- Kucmova averages 4.77 first-set games won against 3.69 lost; Shinikova 4.29 against 5.29
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAneta KucmovaEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kucmova's second-set record and games balance on clay are both positive, giving her a modest advantage if a second set is played.
- Kucmova is 7-6 in second sets on clay; Shinikova is 3-4
- Kucmova's second-set games average 5.08 won to 4.38 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostAneta KucmovaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kucmova's clay matches frequently go the distance, so a deciding set is a plausible but not favoured outcome.
- Kucmova went to a deciding set in 7 of 13 clay matches; Shinikova in 2 of 7
- Kucmova averages 2.54 sets per clay match, Shinikova 2.29
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent set scores for both players have usually been settled well before 6-6.
- Only one tiebreak in 20 combined tracked clay matches
- Both players' sets average between 8.5 and 9.6 total games
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance78%

Isabella Shinikova

6W 9L

6-2 6-1#278Elena Micic

4-6 6-1 6-3#867Aysegul Mert

4-6 6-4 6-4#384Diletta Cherubini

6-2 2-6 6-3#575Antonia Stoyanov

6-4 6-4—Danique Havermans

6-3 7-5#224Alicia Herrero Linana

7-6(4) 3-6 6-1#619Isis Louise Van Den Broek

7-6(2) 3-6 6-1#391Sonja Zhiyenbayeva

6-2 5-7 6-3#321Britt Du Pree

3-6 7-6(3) 3-0 ret.#217Greetje Minnen

6-1 6-4#285Mina Hodzic

6-1 6-4#652Valeria Savinykh

6-2 6-3#371Miriana Tona

7-5 6-0#243Noemi Basiletti

6-4 6-4#452Rasheeda Mcadoo

Aneta Kucmova

8W 7L

6-0 6-3#323Jessica Pieri

6-1 6-3—Silvia Dalle Molle

6-4 6-4—Sophie Greiner

6-7(4) 6-3 6-1#434Laura Mair

7-5 4-3 ret.#229Julie Struplova

6-3 5-7 6-4#170Anna Siskova

6-0 4-6 7-5#443Denisa Zoldakova

3-6 6-0 6-4#511Laura Hietaranta

3-6 6-3 6-4#243Noemi Basiletti

6-4 6-3—Carolina Dibenedetto

3-2 ret.#238Caijsa Wilda Hennemann

6-0 6-2—Veronika Kulhava

6-2 7-5—Rozalie Vrajikova

6-1 4-6 6-2#321Britt Du Pree

4-6 6-4 6-3#266Katarina Zavatska

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ISIsabella ShinikovaShinikova

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Aneta KucmovaKucmovaAK

Isabella Shinikova carries the stronger recent form — Aneta Kucmova's route runs through return.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1562.1%+0.8pp62.9%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1561.4%+2.6pp58.8%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1543.4%+1.8pp41.6%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/153.0+2.30.7

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/154.90.8 fewer5.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1542.6%+7.0pp49.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1547.2%+2.2pp49.4%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1556.0%+2.5pp53.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1548.5%+2.5pp51.0%

Serve · 4–1

62.1%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+0.8pp62.9%

61.4%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+2.6pp58.8%

43.4%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+1.8pp41.6%

3.0Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+2.30.7

4.9Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/150.8 fewer5.7

Return · 0–1

42.6%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+7.0pp49.6%

Pressure · 1–1

47.2%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+2.2pp49.4%

56.0%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+2.5pp53.5%

Points · 0–1

48.5%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+2.5pp51.0%