PortugalWTA LisbonFinished

Predictions graded

Ana Filipa Santos #829Portugal0Tena Lukas #414Croatia2

Sets 2-6 · 2-6Sun 11 Oct 2026, 10:13 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions8–280%

Edges0–50%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTena Lukas · 415 places

Ana Filipa Santos

Portugal

Portuguese player ranked No. 829 and listed with clay as her preferred surface. Limited reliable public profile information found, so her recent form record is the better guide.

Current ranking: #829
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: —
Height: —

Tena Lukas

Croatia

Lukas, 31, is the right-hander in this matchup. Her career-high singles ranking is No. 200, reached in September 2022, and her public career record is overwhelmingly on clay.

Current ranking: #414
Peak ranking: #200 · 2022
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Oct 2026, 08:26 · Europe/Bucharest

Lisbon qualifying pits No.

829 Santos against No. 414 Lukas, and the ranking gap says Lukas should come through, though her 7 October 1-6, 2-6 loss and four defeats in six clay matches leave room. Five quoted prices rate as potential value: Santos at 19 to win, at 12 in each set, Over 17.5 games at 3.2 and Over 2.5 sets at 9. Lukas at 1.01 is not a price to take.

Context

That is the freshest clay evidence in this matchup, and it came against a player ranked 323, well inside Lukas's own No. 414. Her previous clay match, on 24 September 2026, was a 6-3, 6-2 win over Sara Cakarevic, so the recent run is split rather than a slide. Santos should not count on that scoreline repeating, but it shows Lukas is beatable by a comfortable margin at this level.
- Lukas lost 1-6, 2-6 to Jessica Pieri on 7 October 2026 on clay
- Pieri was ranked No. 323; Lukas is No. 414
- Lukas won 3 games and lost 12 in her most recent completed match
Lisbon's WTA 125 is scheduled for 12-18 October 2026, with first-round qualifying matches listed for, the same day as this fixture. That timing makes this a qualifying-round tie rather than a main-draw match, so a win advances toward a place in the main draw rather than directly into it. It also frames the level of the contest: Santos (No. 829) and Lukas (No. 414) both sit outside the main draw and are working through qualifying. Only the opening qualifying round is documented, so the full qualifying draw and the exact route onward are not confirmed.
- WTA 125 Lisboa main draw scheduled for 12-18 October 2026
- Opening qualifying round listed for, the date of this match
- Entry list for the 2026 edition published in late September
ReportedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 08:24 · Europe/Bucharest
Santos partnered Vasanti Shinde to the doubles semifinals at the W35 Lagos event in Portugal in the days before this match, recovering from a set down to win their quarterfinal. It shows the Portuguese player was match-active on home soil right up to the Lisbon event rather than arriving after a long break. It also gives her a doubles workload across the week of the Lisbon qualifying round, a scheduling difference from an opponent whose most recent recorded appearance was a straight-sets singles loss. Doubles results do not carry over directly to singles, so this is preparation context rather than evidence about her singles form.
- Shinde and Santos won their W35 Lagos doubles quarterfinal 2-6, 6-1, 10-6
- The pair advanced to the semifinals of the event in Portugal
- The result came in the days before the Lisbon qualifying round
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 08:24 · Europe/Bucharest
Her first sets average 8.38 games and her second sets 8.92, with a single tiebreak in the whole sample. The dip after the opening set is a small-sample pattern, not a settled habit, but it is where Santos's numbers look brighter: Santos is 3-3 in second sets on clay with a positive games differential. That makes the second set the more open of the two.
- Lukas has won 7 of 13 first sets on clay and 6 of 13 second sets
- Her first sets average 8.38 total games; second sets average 8.92
- The 13 completed clay matches run from 29 July to 7 October 2026
- One tiebreak across the sample of 13 matches

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lukas is the higher-ranked player with a better clay record and more matches at this level, while Santos has been inconsistent against similar opposition.
- Tena Lukas is ranked 414; Ana Filipa Santos is ranked 829.
- Lukas is 7-6 on clay in the tracked period; Santos is 3-4.
- Lukas has a 7-6 first-set record and a 6-7 second-set record on clay.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTena LukasEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second-set averages are above 7.5 total games.
- Santos averages 8.17 games in second sets on clay; Lukas averages 8.92.
- Lukas has one second-set tiebreak in 13 clay matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 7.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 3.20
The read
Both players' clay matches average close to 20 total games, pointing to a match that should exceed 17.5 games.
- Santos's clay matches average 19.67 total games; Lukas's average 19.77.
- Neither player has frequent tiebreaks, but games totals are consistently near 20.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 17.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Santos stayed within 6.5 games in four of her last five clay matches, showing she can keep the margin close.
- Santos covered +6.5 in four of her last five clay matches based on game margins.
- Lukas has lost by 7+ games in three of her last six clay matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAna Filipa Santos +6.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average fewer than 9 games in first sets on clay.
- Both players average fewer than 9 games in first sets on clay.
- Santos's first-set average is 8.5 total games; Lukas's is 8.38.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results are the most common outcome for both players on clay.
- Lukas has 10 straight-set matches in 13 clay matches; Santos has 4 in 6.
- Lukas's scorelines show only three three-set matches in 13.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lukas has a slightly better first-set record and game differential on clay than Santos.
- Lukas has won 7 of 13 first sets on clay, averaging 4.31 games won and 4.08 lost.
- Santos has a 3-3 first-set record on clay, averaging 4.17 games won and 4.33 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonTena LukasEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Lukas is higher-ranked and has more clay matches, though her second-set record is weaker than Santos's games average.
- Lukas has a 6-7 second-set record on clay, averaging 4.38 games won and 4.54 lost.
- Santos is 3-3 in second sets on clay, averaging 4.67 games won and 3.50 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonTena LukasEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lukas has one tiebreak in 13 clay matches, and Santos has none in six.
- Lukas has one tiebreak in 13 clay matches; Santos has none in six.
- Both players' first-set tiebreak counts are zero in the setEvidence sample.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance85%

Ana Filipa Santos

3W 12L

3-6 6-4 1-0 ret.—Milana Ivantsiv

6-4 3-3 ret.#483Jana Otzipka

6-7(5) 6-4 6-4#733Mary Lewis

6-1 6-3—Camila Rodero

6-3 6-2#1238Heydi Doldan

6-4 6-3#783Maria Herazo

6-1 6-0—Beatriz Nahmias Melo Rodrigues

7-6(5) 6-7(4) 10-6—Gabriela Kawano Cho

4-6 6-4 6-4#783Maria Herazo

3-6 6-4 ret.—Emily Zornada

6-2 1-6 6-2#1067Alisa Danilova

6-4 7-5#820Lauryn John-Baptiste

6-3 7-5—Sofia Kryvoruchko

6-1 6-2—Berta Miret Avante

2-1 ret.—Sol Rabin

Tena Lukas

8W 7L

6-1 6-2#323Jessica Pieri

6-2 3-0 ret.#436Alisa Oktiabreva

6-3 6-2#551Sara Cakarevic

6-0 3-0 ret.#634Verena Meliss

6-3 6-4#379Madison Sieg

6-4 6-1#301Nastasja Mariana Schunk

6-0 6-0—Aya Akan

6-1 6-2#301Nastasja Mariana Schunk

6-2 6-4#893Joy De Zeeuw

3-6 6-4 6-1#836Arina Gabriela Vasilescu

6-2 6-4#785Lola Giza

6-4 6-4—Leticia Solakov

2-6 7-6(5) 7-6(5)#280Eva Bennemann

6-3 2-6 7-5#256Anastasia Tikhonova

6-3 6-2#385Dalila Jakupovic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ASAna Filipa SantosSantos

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Tena LukasLukasTL

Ana Filipa Santos carries the stronger recent form — Tena Lukas's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In13/15 · 15/1567.1%+10.0pp57.1%

1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/1555.4%+8.0pp63.4%

2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/1546.6%+2.9pp43.7%

Aces / Match13/15 · 15/150.8+1.82.6

Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/152.53.0 fewer5.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/1545.5%+0.9pp46.4%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/1555.6%+3.0pp52.6%

Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/1556.4%+1.4pp55.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/1549.1%+1.6pp50.7%

Serve · 3–2

67.1%1st Serve In13/15 · 15/15+10.0pp57.1%

55.4%1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+8.0pp63.4%

46.6%2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+2.9pp43.7%

0.8Aces / Match13/15 · 15/15+1.82.6

2.5Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/153.0 fewer5.5

Return · 0–1

45.5%Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+0.9pp46.4%

Pressure · 2–0

55.6%Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/15+3.0pp52.6%

56.4%Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/15+1.4pp55.0%

Points · 0–1

49.1%Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+1.6pp50.7%