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Predictions graded

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina #26Spain2Jenson Brooksby #102United States0

Sets 6-1 · 6-3Fri 9 Oct 2026, 08:08 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions7–558%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlejandro Davidovich Fokina · 76 places

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Spain

Spanish right-hander, currently ranked No. 29 and the second seed at Chengdu. He has not competed since 16 July, making this his first tournament in more than two months.

Current ranking: #26
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Jenson Brooksby

United States

Brooksby, 25, is the right-hander in this matchup. He returned in 2025 after left- and right-wrist surgeries in 2023; those surgeries are career background rather than a current tournament development.

Current ranking: #102
Peak ranking: #33 · 2022
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Oct 2026, 15:42 · Europe/Bucharest

The tension: Davidovich Fokina is the higher-ranked seed with a first hard-court title, but he has played one match in five weeks, while Brooksby has already won here and split their two meetings.

Davidovich Fokina should win, probably in straight sets, but the 1.40 match price, the 1.44 for a straight-sets finish, the 1.44 opening-set price and a 1.90 correct score all ask for more than the evidence supports. None is a worthwhile price.

Context

The win came against a Tokyo semi-finalist who had taken a set off Carlos Alcaraz days earlier, so it carries more weight than the gap to Brooksby's ranking suggests. It matters for this fixture because Brooksby needed a strong week to rebuild his ranking, and the recovery shows he can win short of match rhythm. The counterweight is the quick turnaround: this is his second match in two days, while Davidovich Fokina has been idle since 1 October.
- Defeated Jaume Munar 7-5, 6-4 in the first round
- Trailed 5-1 in the first set before winning it 7-5
- Munar had reached the Tokyo semi-finals the previous week
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 15:40 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majorswww.tennismajors.com · 8 Oct 2026
A first hard-court title at tour level is a real shift for a player whose best results had come on clay, and it came in his first tournament after a two-month absence from mid-July. It is the freshest evidence of his level going into Shanghai, where a first-round bye means he has not had to play himself into the event. The limitation is scope: one ATP 250 week, followed by a first-round exit at the next event.
- Won the Chengdu Open in September 2026, his first ATP hard-court title
- Returned from an absence that began in mid-July
- Did not lose serve in the Chengdu final
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 15:40 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majorswww.tennismajors.com · 8 Oct 2026
Davidovich Fokina lost the opening set in a tie-break before turning the 2025 meeting around, and the third set closed at 7-5.
The single most recent meeting between these two needed a deciding set and was separated by two games, which is the closest available read on how they match up. It sits against their earlier meeting, a straight-sets win for Brooksby, so the head-to-head is split rather than one-sided. Two matches is a very small basis for a pattern, and both were played in previous seasons.
- 22 October 2025: Davidovich Fokina won 6-7(6) 6-4 7-5
- The opening set went to a tie-break and the deciding set finished 7-5, a two-game margin
- This is the most recent of the two completed meetings between the players
The sample covers 12 completed hard-court matches between 28 July and 8 October 2026, with no retirements among them.
Brooksby's scorelines in this window have usually been settled without a third set, at an average of 2.08 sets per match, which points toward a short match here. The split between six straight-sets wins and five straight-sets losses also says little about which way this one goes. Twelve matches is a small sample, and past scorelines do not bind this fixture.
- 12 completed hard-court matches in best-of-three format, 28 July to 8 October 2026, retirements excluded: 0
- Scorelines: six 2-0 wins, five 0-2 losses, one 2-1 win
- Average sets per hard-court match: 2.08, with two matches featuring a tie-break

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

1.40fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 71.4%

−1.4ppshort

The higher-ranked player has the stronger serve numbers over this hard-court stretch and holds a title on the surface, while Brooksby arrives after a completed first round.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.44fair 1.45

BetBugs 69% · Market 69.4%

−0.4ppshort

Straight-sets outcomes dominate the recent hard-court record of both players, particularly Brooksby's.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

1.44fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 69.4%

−6.4ppshort

Davidovich Fokina has controlled opening sets on this surface much more often than his opponent has.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 2-0

1.90fair 2.13

BetBugs 47% · Market 52.6%

−5.6ppshort

Davidovich Fokina has usually won in straight sets on this surface, and Brooksby has lost in straight sets frequently.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
The higher-ranked player has the stronger serve numbers over this hard-court stretch and holds a title on the surface, while Brooksby arrives after a completed first round.
- Davidovich Fokina is 12-3 over his last 15 matches and 4-1 on hard courts in the current window
- On hard courts he wins 77.5% of first-serve points and 60.7% of second-serve points, against 71.2% and 52.1% for Brooksby
- He is the higher-ranked player (No. 26 to No. 102) and won the Chengdu Open in September for a first hard-court title
- Brooksby played and won a first round on 8 October; Davidovich Fokina entered on a bye
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlejandro Davidovich FokinaEstimated chance70%

Games1 of 6 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Brooksby's recent completed matches have rarely been decided by five games or more, and Davidovich Fokina's average margin is smaller than this line.
- Two of Brooksby's five most recent completed matches were decided by +4 games
- Brooksby's most recent hard-court losses were by -3, -1 and -3 games
- Davidovich Fokina's hard-court games margin of +19 over five matches is only +3.8 per match
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostJenson Brooksby +4.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in the recent hard-court record of both players regularly pass ten games, with tiebreaks appearing at this stage rather than in the first set.
- Davidovich Fokina's second sets on hard average 11.6 games (6.4 won, 5.2 lost)
- Brooksby's second sets on hard average 10.8 games (5.7 won, 5.2 lost)
- Both players have recorded two second-set tiebreaks in their supplied hard-court samples
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of Davidovich Fokina's recent completed matches on this surface finished within three games, which keeps Brooksby inside this line often.
- Three of Davidovich Fokina's five hard-court matches finished with a margin of three games or fewer
- Brooksby won his Shanghai opener by +4 games over Jaume Munar
- Brooksby's hard-court record across 13 matches is 155 games won to 148 lost
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostJenson Brooksby +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Davidovich Fokina's opening sets on this surface have usually stayed below ten games, and he wins most of them.
- Davidovich Fokina's first sets on hard average 8.8 games
- He has won four of five first sets on this surface, several comfortably
- Brooksby's first-set games margin on hard is 4.8 won to 5.0 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A competitive two-set match or any Brooksby win would keep the margin inside this line, and recent margins between comparable opponents have been narrow.
- Brooksby is +7 games across 13 hard-court matches, with wins of +4, +4, +4 and a one-game loss among his recent completed matches
- Davidovich Fokina won by +3 or less in three of his five hard-court matches
- The 2025 head-to-head meeting was decided 7-5 in the third set, a two-game margin
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostJenson Brooksby +2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Davidovich Fokina's recent hard-court matches have regularly run past this line, offsetting Brooksby's shorter match history.
- Davidovich Fokina's five hard-court matches average 24.2 total games
- Davidovich Fokina's last three hard-court matches finished with 30, 23 and 29 games
- Brooksby's 12 hard-court matches of this format average 21.3 total games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Straight-sets outcomes dominate the recent hard-court record of both players, particularly Brooksby's.
- Brooksby's 12 hard-court matches produced 11 straight-sets results
- Davidovich Fokina's five hard-court matches produced three straight-sets results
- Brooksby's average of 2.08 sets per hard-court match is the lower of the two
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance69%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Davidovich Fokina has controlled opening sets on this surface much more often than his opponent has.
- Davidovich Fokina has won four of five opening sets on hard courts in this window
- He averages 5.6 games won to 3.2 lost in first sets on this surface
- Brooksby is 6-6 in first sets across his 12 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAlejandro Davidovich FokinaEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets on this surface have been won more often than lost by Davidovich Fokina, though his margins are narrow.
- Davidovich Fokina is 4-1 in second sets on hard courts in this window
- He averages 6.4 games won to 5.2 lost in second sets on this surface, with two tiebreaks
- Brooksby is 7-5 in second sets across 12 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAlejandro Davidovich FokinaEstimated chance63%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most recent hard-court matches for both players were settled without a tiebreak.
- Eight of Brooksby's 12 hard-court matches had no tiebreak
- Three of Davidovich Fokina's five hard-court matches had no tiebreak
- Neither player has recorded a first-set tiebreak in the supplied samples
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players keep double faults low on hard courts, with a combined rate marginally below three per match.
- Davidovich Fokina has 8 double faults in five hard-court matches
- Brooksby has 11 double faults in 13 hard-court matches
- The combined average of about 2.4 sits just under the line
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two players' combined ace rate sits just below the line, with Brooksby contributing relatively few.
- Brooksby averages 3.2 aces per hard-court match across 13 matches
- Davidovich Fokina averages 6.0 aces per hard-court match across five matches
- Brooksby's 13-match sample contains 42 aces in total
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: 12/15 recent winner projections matched

12 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Alejandro Davidovich Fokina matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

16 Jul·ATP Umag

#101Alex Molcan2-1#20Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

BetBugsAlejandro Davidovich Fokina to win·65%

Missed

16 Jul 2026

ATP Umag

#101Alex Molcan2-1#20Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to win

65%probability

Alex Molcan won

Missed

15 Jul·ATP Umag

#99Marco Trungelliti0-2#20Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

BetBugsAlejandro Davidovich Fokina to win·65%

Matched

15 Jul 2026

ATP Umag

#99Marco Trungelliti0-2#20Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to win

65%probability

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina won

Matched

3 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#23Alejandro Davidovich Fokina3-0#76Marton Fucsovics

BetBugsAlejandro Davidovich Fokina to win·72%

Matched

3 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#23Alejandro Davidovich Fokina3-0#76Marton Fucsovics

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to win

72%probability

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina won

Matched

1 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#23Alejandro Davidovich Fokina3-0#53Fabian Marozsan

BetBugsAlejandro Davidovich Fokina to win·62%

Matched

1 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#23Alejandro Davidovich Fokina3-0#53Fabian Marozsan

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to win

62%probability

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina won

Matched

29 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#25Alejandro Davidovich Fokina3-0#45Juan Manuel Cerundolo

BetBugsAlejandro Davidovich Fokina to win·78%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#25Alejandro Davidovich Fokina3-0#45Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to win

78%probability

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-1 (2 meetings)

W6-7(6) 6-4 7-5Alejandro Davidovich Fokina#26vJenson Brooksby#102Oct 22, 2025

L7-5 6-0Alejandro Davidovich Fokina#26vJenson Brooksby#102Oct 22, 2021

2 total meetings

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

12W 3L

1-6 7-6(1) 6-4#46Matteo Berrettini

6-4 7-6(7)#34Hubert Hurkacz

4-6 6-4 6-3#124Nikoloz Basilashvili

6-1 7-5#133Alexandre Muller

6-4 6-4#55Juan Manuel Cerundolo

3-6 6-1 6-2#84Alex Molcan

6-4 7-5#90Marco Trungelliti

6-7(4) 7-6(6) 6-3 6-7(2) 6-1#6Felix Auger Aliassime

7-6(3) 6-2 6-3#134Marton Fucsovics

6-3 6-0 6-3#63Fabian Marozsan

6-4 6-4 7-6(2)#55Juan Manuel Cerundolo

7-6(4) 6-3#66Ethan Quinn

5-7 6-2 6-4#63Fabian Marozsan

6-3 6-3#127Grigor Dimitrov

6-4 7-5#98Adam Walton

Jenson Brooksby

8W 7L

7-5 6-4#49Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

6-4 7-6(4)#124Nikoloz Basilashvili

5-7 7-5 6-2#87Lorenzo Sonego

7-5 7-5#53Sebastian Baez

6-3 7-6(4) 4-6 1-6 6-2#60Jaime Faria

6-4 7-6(6)#43Stefanos Tsitsipas

6-3 6-2#108Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

6-3 6-2#60Jaime Faria

6-3 7-5#4Ben Shelton

6-3 6-4#98Adam Walton

6-1 7-5#101Chak Lam Coleman Wong

6-3 6-4#350Edward Winter

6-4 6-4#71Corentin Moutet

6-4 6-3 6-4#1Jannik Sinner

6-2 6-2 6-3#36Ignacio Buse

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AFAlejandro Davidovich FokinaFokina

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Jenson BrooksbyBrooksbyJB

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina carries the stronger recent form — Jenson Brooksby's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In66.9%+1.5pp68.4%

1st Serve Won76.0%+4.9pp71.1%

2nd Serve Won60.7%+10.0pp50.7%

Aces / Match6.1+2.83.3

Double Faults / Match1.80.8 fewer1.0

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won38.0%—38.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted39.6%+1.1pp40.7%

Break Pts Saved70.4%+8.6pp61.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.8%+2.6pp51.2%

Serve · 3–2

66.9%1st Serve In+1.5pp68.4%

76.0%1st Serve Won+4.9pp71.1%

60.7%2nd Serve Won+10.0pp50.7%

6.1Aces / Match+2.83.3

1.8Double Faults / Match0.8 fewer1.0

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

38.0%Return Pts Won—38.7%

Pressure · 1–1

39.6%Break Pts Converted+1.1pp40.7%

70.4%Break Pts Saved+8.6pp61.8%

Points · 1–0

53.8%Total Pts Won+2.6pp51.2%