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Predictions graded

Mariam Bolkvadze #370Georgia0Bianca Vanessa Andreescu #172Canada2

Sets 4-6 · 3-6Thu 8 Oct 2026, 12:20 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions7–370%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBianca Vanessa Andreescu · 198 places

Mariam Bolkvadze

Georgia

Bolkvadze reached a singles career high of No. 151 in March 2022. The reviewed reliable sources did not establish a preferred surface or height.

Current ranking: #370
Peak ranking: #151 · 2022
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Left handed
Height: —

Bianca Vanessa Andreescu

Canada

Former world No. 4, Andreescu’s WTA profile records her May 2024 return after a nine-month back-injury absence. That is career background only; the specified current-event search did not verify an active Cincinnati fitness restriction.

Current ranking: #172
Peak ranking: #4 · 2019
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 15:18 · Europe/Bucharest

A former US Open champion, now No. 172, against a No. 370 qualifier who has won three matches in four days: Andreescu is the likelier winner and the first set is her best route to it.

The prices with a case are both on Bolkvadze, at 3.75 to win the match and 3.00 to take the opening set. Andreescu's 1.29 and 1.36 for a straight-sets finish ask for more than the record supports.

Context

Andreescu had not played since 13 September, so her opening match was the first competitive test of her hard-court level in more than three weeks and her only match before this round of 16. She won it without dropping a game, which means she reaches the fixture with low accumulated fatigue but no recent evidence of how she handles a longer contest. The opponent was a qualifier ranked far outside the top 100, which limits how much the scoreline says about her level against a player who has already won three matches at this event.
- 6-0, 6-0 win over qualifier Alana Smith in the opening round
- Reached the round of 16 with no games dropped
- First competitive match since 13 September 2026
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 15:15 · Europe/Bucharest
Bolkvadze has played three matches in four days, including a three-set qualifying final and a straight-sets win over a top-110 opponent, while Andreescu has played a single match this week and then rested. The qualifying route gives the 370th-ranked player recent match sharpness and repeat exposure to these courts, balanced against a heavier recent load and only one rest day before this round. Jeanjean had been the higher-ranked player projected into this slot, so Bolkvadze has replaced a top-110 opponent with a lower-ranked qualifier who is currently winning matches.
- Seeded No. 8 in the Samsun qualifying draw
- Won qualifying matches over Alya Naz Altinel and Mariia Tkacheva
- Beat Leolia Jeanjean 6-3, 6-1 in the main draw
- Three wins in four days before the round of 16
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 15:15 · Europe/BucharestFlashscorewww.flashscore.com · 5 Oct 2026WTA Samsun player listwww.wtatennis.com · 5 Oct 2026
Andreescu's first serve is the shot most likely to separate the two players.
That delivery gives her free points Bolkvadze's own serve rarely produces, and it is the main reason she is the likelier winner of this second round. The same 15-match window also produced a 7-8 record, so the serve has not carried her to consistent results on its own.
- Last 15 tracked matches, window ending 6 October 2026
- 65.0% of first-serve points won (418/643) and 3.6 aces per match (54)
- 3.4 double faults per match (51) over the same 15 matches
- 7 wins and 8 losses across the window
Bolkvadze has been playing close, long sets on this surface in recent weeks.
Her opening sets are tight as well, at 4.7 games won to 4.8 lost per set, so a first set drifting past nine games would fit her recent hard-court pattern. Straight sets stay the most common outcome, though, with seven of the ten ending 2-0 or 0-2.
- 10 completed hard-court matches, 10 June to 7 October 2026
- 21.9 games per match on average; 5 matches contained a tiebreak
- Second sets average 10.6 games and produced 4 tiebreaks
- Scorelines: 2-0 four times, 2-1 once, 0-2 three times, 1-2 twice

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.36fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 73.5%

−5.5ppshort

Neither player's recent hard-court record features many three-set matches, so a straight-sets finish is the more likely outcome.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Andreescu is the higher-ranked player and opened the tournament with a 6-0 6-0 win, with her first serve holding up as a real weapon on this surface.
- Ranked No. 172 against Bolkvadze's No. 370
- 7-8 in her last 15 matches and 3-4 on hard in this window
- Won her opening round 6-0 6-0 over Alana Smith without dropping a game
- Won 65.5% of first-serve points and 3.1 aces per hard-court match
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBianca Vanessa AndreescuEstimated chance57%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bolkvadze has kept every recent completed hard-court match within four games, so a seven-game start looks generous.
- Bolkvadze has never lost a recent completed hard-court match by more than four games
- Her heaviest recent defeats were 9-13 to No. 255 and 7-12 to No. 35 was Andreescu's
- She has won 51.1% of her hard-court games (112/219)
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMariam Bolkvadze +6.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of Bolkvadze's hard-court matches have stayed within a couple of breaks, so a four-and-a-half-game start is a useful cushion.
- Seven of Bolkvadze's ten recent hard-court matches were decided by one break or a tighter margin
- Only two of her last ten hard-court matches ended with a deficit larger than four games
- She is 6-4 in second sets on hard, where she often extends matches
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMariam Bolkvadze +4.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Opening sets for both players have tended to finish before the ten-game mark, with very few tiebreaks involved.
- Andreescu's opening sets average 7.9 games; Bolkvadze's average 9.5
- Andreescu has played no tiebreak in her seven hard-court matches
- Bolkvadze's opening sets produced just one tiebreak in ten matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bolkvadze's hard-court matches have regularly passed 20 games and she often extends sets, which gives the over a small lean.
- Bolkvadze's hard-court matches average 21.9 total games; Andreescu's average 18.0
- Bolkvadze's average hard-court match lasts 124 minutes, Andreescu's 91.5
- Three of Bolkvadze's ten hard-court matches went the full three sets
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 19.5Estimated chance54%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Neither player's recent hard-court record features many three-set matches, so a straight-sets finish is the more likely outcome.
- Bolkvadze's ten hard-court matches produced 7 straight-set results (4 wins 2-0, 3 losses 0-2)
- Andreescu's seven hard-court matches produced 6 straight-set results (3 wins 2-0, 3 losses 0-2)
- Combined, 13 of 17 recent hard-court matches finished in two sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Andreescu starts quickly on this surface, taking the opening set in four of seven hard-court matches while conceding few games in it.
- Andreescu has won the opening set in 4 of 7 hard-court matches
- Her set-1 game record is 4.71 won to 3.14 lost per set
- Bolkvadze is 5-5 in opening sets on hard
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonBianca Vanessa AndreescuEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Andreescu's overall quality still gives her the edge in the second set even though her recent second-set record is slightly negative.
- Andreescu has won 3 of 7 second sets on hard
- Her second sets average 8.7 total games
- None of her seven hard-court matches featured a second-set tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonBianca Vanessa AndreescuEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Andreescu's recent hard-court matches have all avoided tiebreaks, and her strong first-serve numbers make 6-6 sets less likely.
- Andreescu's seven hard-court matches produced no tiebreaks at all
- Bolkvadze's ten hard-court matches produced five tiebreaks, mostly in second sets
- Both players' recent matches average under 22 total games
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Andreescu is the only real ace threat here and Bolkvadze barely hits any, so the combined total should stay low.
- Bolkvadze has hit 4 aces in 10 hard-court matches (0.4 per match)
- Andreescu has hit 22 aces in 7 hard-court matches (3.1 per match)
- Combined average is roughly 3.5 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined double-fault rates sit close to the line and a two-set match would most likely fall short of twelve.
- Bolkvadze has hit 80 double faults in 10 hard-court matches (8.0 per match)
- Andreescu has hit 24 in 7 (3.4 per match)
- A straight-sets match would probably keep the combined total near ten
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 11.5Estimated chance53%

Previous match context available

Mariam Bolkvadze

9W 6L

6-3 6-1#109Leolia Jeanjean

4-6 7-6(5) 6-0#663Mariia Tkacheva

6-1 6-0—Alya Naz Altinel

6-3 7-6(5)#255Anouk Koevermans

6-4 6-3#168Alevtina Ibragimova

6-4 7-6(5)#213Erika Andreeva

6-3 7-6(3)#814Kallista Liu

6-7(3) 6-4 6-0#87Daria Kasatkina

6-3 5-7 6-0—Unknown Player

6-1 6-0#73Ashlyn Krueger

6-2 2-6 6-4#103Ajla Tomljanovic

6-4 4-6 6-3#128Jeline Vandromme

6-3 6-2#216Hayu Kinoshita

6-4 7-6(6)#99Julia Grabher

6-3 6-4#214Francisca Jorge

Bianca Vanessa Andreescu

7W 8L

6-0 6-0#488Alana Smith

6-4 6-3#35Cristina Bucsa

2-6 6-3 6-4#142Tamara Zidansek

6-0 6-3#127Veronika Podrez

6-1 6-2#201Eva Vedder

6-0 6-4#85Xiyu Wang

7-5 6-4#34Nikola Bartunkova

7-6(3) 7-6(6)#57Shuai Zhang

6-3 7-6(4)#121Aliaksandra Sasnovich

6-7(4) 6-1 6-4#184Jil Teichmann

6-4 6-2#237Polona Hercog

6-1 6-2#19Elise Mertens

6-7(2) 6-4 6-4#211Viktoria Hruncakova

6-3 6-2#789Unknown Player

6-4 6-1#12Belinda Bencic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MBMariam BolkvadzeBolkvadze

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Bianca Vanessa AndreescuAndreescuBA

Bianca Vanessa Andreescu carries the stronger recent form — Mariam Bolkvadze's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In68.3%+5.9pp62.4%

1st Serve Won60.5%+4.5pp65.0%

2nd Serve Won39.3%+6.7pp46.0%

Aces / Match0.5+3.13.6

Double Faults / Match7.94.5 fewer3.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won47.2%+4.5pp42.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted45.1%+5.7pp39.4%

Break Pts Saved57.7%+4.0pp61.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.5%—50.4%

Shot making · 1–2Limited data · 8 vs 9

Winners / Match8/15 · 9/1515.1+14.529.6

Unforced Errors / Match8/15 · 9/1521.33.3 fewer24.6

Net Pts Won8/15 · 9/1564.9%+2.1pp67.0%

Serve · 1–4

68.3%1st Serve In+5.9pp62.4%

60.5%1st Serve Won+4.5pp65.0%

39.3%2nd Serve Won+6.7pp46.0%

0.5Aces / Match+3.13.6

7.9Double Faults / Match4.5 fewer3.4

Return · 1–0

47.2%Return Pts Won+4.5pp42.7%

Pressure · 1–1

45.1%Break Pts Converted+5.7pp39.4%

57.7%Break Pts Saved+4.0pp61.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.5%Total Pts Won—50.4%

Shot making · 1–2Limited data · 8 vs 9

15.1Winners8/15 · 9/15+14.529.6

21.3Unforced Errors8/15 · 9/153.3 fewer24.6

64.9%Net Pts Won8/15 · 9/15+2.1pp67.0%