Rinky Hijikata #85Australia00 – 2Roman Safiullin #79Russia2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33

The read

Safiullin holds serve more securely and arrives with sharper recent wins, while Hijikata has been beaten comfortably by similar-ranked opponents.

• Safiullin is 9-6 in his last 15 and 8-5 on hard courts; Hijikata is 6-9 overall and 6-7 on hard
• Hard-court serve gap: Safiullin wins 72.9% of first-serve points and saves 72.9% of break points, Hijikata 67.5% and 52.3%
• Safiullin won both Shanghai qualifying rounds without dropping a set, conceding eight games across four sets
• Hijikata lost four of his last six, including straight-sets defeats to Tsitsipas and Rublev

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Safiullin's wins tend to come by wider margins than four games, while Hijikata has been beaten by several games recently.

• Safiullin's four recent wins came by margins of 7, 9, 7 and 6 games
• Hijikata's last two defeats were by 5 and 4 games
• Safiullin's three-set loss to Rublev finished 12-15 on games

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44

The read

Safiullin's second-set record on hard courts is by far the strongest split either player owns.

• Safiullin is 10-2 in second sets across 12 hard-court best-of-three matches
• Hijikata is 6-6 in second sets in the same format
• Safiullin averages 5.58 second-set games won against 3.17 lost

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45

The read

Both players' recent records are dominated by straight-set finishes, and Safiullin's wins have been quick.

• Safiullin has seven 2-0 wins in his last 12 hard-court best-of-three matches
• Hijikata's hard-court set evidence includes nine straight-set results in 12
• Safiullin's average hard-court match lasts about 98 minutes

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40

The read

Safiullin starts sets with a clear serve advantage and has a winning first-set record on this surface.

• Safiullin is 7-5 in first sets across 12 hard-court best-of-three matches
• Hijikata is 5-7 in first sets in the same format
• Safiullin's first-set games average is 5.33 won against 4.33 lost

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.90

The read

Safiullin's straight-set wins are his most common recent outcome and Hijikata has been beaten in straight sets often.

• Safiullin's hard-court set evidence shows seven 2-0 wins in 12 matches
• He won both Shanghai qualifying matches 2-0 for the loss of eight games
• Hijikata has lost 0-2 in five of his 12 hard-court best-of-three matches

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Safiullin's matches are usually settled without a tiebreak, and his serving has been hard to break.

• Only one of Safiullin's last 12 hard-court matches contained a tiebreak
• Hijikata's hard-court matches produced tiebreaks in five of 12
• Safiullin's qualifying wins finished 6-3 6-0 and 6-2 6-3

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Safiullin's low double-fault rate makes the combined total more likely to stay under the line.

• Safiullin averages 2.2 double faults per hard-court match
• Hijikata averages 3.0 per hard-court match
• Safiullin has kept his double faults low across 13 hard-court matches

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The two players' ace rates add up right around the line, with Safiullin's serve the main driver.

• Safiullin averages 6.8 aces per hard-court match
• Hijikata averages 3.8 aces per hard-court match
• Their combined hard-court average is about 10.6 per match