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Predictions graded

Ryan Nijboer #508Netherlands2Benjamin Hassan #5140

Sets 6-3 · 6-3Mon 5 Oct 2026, 10:41 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions8–189%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRyan Nijboer · 6 places

Ryan Nijboer

Netherlands

Dutch player born 28 July 1999. ITF records his preferred surface as hard and a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 371 in August 2024.

Current ranking: #508
Peak ranking: #371 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Benjamin Hassan

Lebanese player born 4 February 1995. Reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 143 in June 2024; his recorded career match volume is strongest on clay.

Current ranking: #514
Peak ranking: #143 · 2024
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 22:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Nijboer's clay record — 12-3 in 15 tracked matches to Hassan's 6-4 in 10 — is the base here, though his 3 October loss to a player ranked 559 is the warning.

Nijboer winning looks the likelier outcome, and the 2.2 for him, 2.1 in each of the first two sets and 3.5 for a 2-0 win all carry an edge, so no single one is the only price worth taking. Hassan's prices, 1.6 to 4.0, are listed to avoid.

Context

Nijboer's recent clay form points to quick starts and second sets finished with room to spare.
That makes a two-set Nijboer win the most common single result in this sample and leans the match towards finishing inside two and a half sets. It is a 15-match window, though, and Hassan has been taken to a decider in half of his own 10 clay matches, so a third set is a live alternative rather than a remote one.
- Nijboer's 15 tracked clay matches run 5 September to 4 October 2026 and break down as eight 2-0 wins, four 2-1 wins, two 0-2 losses and one 1-2 loss.
- He won 10 of 15 opening sets and 11 of 15 second sets across the same matches.
This is the clearest threat to a short match: half of Hassan's completed clay matches needed three sets, and his average of 23.5 games runs above Nijboer's 21.7 over the same kind of window. Three retirements are excluded from the 10-match sample, so the 6-4 record and the game totals rest on completed matches only, and the sample itself is small.
- Hassan's 10 tracked clay matches run 18 August to 4 October 2026: four 2-0 wins, two 2-1 wins, one 0-2 loss and three 1-2 losses.
- Those matches average 23.5 games and 2.5 sets, with three retirements excluded from the sample.
Ritschard is the lowest-ranked opponent in Nijboer's recent clay rows, and the defeat came in straight sets with only six games won, so the 12-3 record over 15 matches is not unblemished. Nijboer returned the following day and won a three-set match against Nico Hipfl, which is why this reads as a caution rather than a slide.
- Nijboer lost 5-7 1-6 to Alexander Ritschard, ranked 559, on 3 October 2026 on clay.
This fixture is the second round of the Braga Challenger, listed on Court 2 with a 10:30 start. That makes it an early outdoor slot on the tournament's clay, the surface both players have contested almost exclusively across September and early October. The round placement means each arrives with a completed win at the event, so their opening-round form is already established rather than untested here. The listing does not fix the wider draw path, so it establishes the occasion and setting rather than separating the two players.
- Braga 2026 second-round listing places the Nijboer-Hassan match on Court 2 with a 10:30 start time.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 22:26 · Europe/BucharestTennisTempleen.tennistemple.com · 4 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Nijboer owns the better clay record and the stronger serve and return numbers over the tracked window.
- Nijboer is 12-3 on clay across 15 tracked matches; Hassan is 6-4 across 10.
- Nijboer wins 54.1% of total points and 58.6% of games on clay.
- Hassan's clay defeats came against opponents ranked 113 and 209.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRyan NijboerEstimated chance60%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players win their second sets by wide margins, which usually produces a short set.
- Nijboer's second sets average 8.67 games; Hassan's average 8.6.
- Nijboer wins 5.27 games to 3.4 in second sets on clay.
- Hassan wins 5.3 games to 3.3 in second sets on clay.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets involving both players average close to ten games, with several tiebreaks in the sample.
- Nijboer's first sets average 9.93 games; Hassan's average 9.9.
- Nijboer's opening sets produced 1 tiebreak, Hassan's 3.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Nijboer's many straight-set wins pull the expected total toward the lower side of the line.
- Nijboer's 15 clay matches average 21.7 games.
- Nijboer has won 8 of 15 clay matches 2-0, keeping totals low.
- Hassan's 10 clay matches average 23.5 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 22.5Estimated chance51%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes are the most common outcome for both players across their recent clay matches.
- 10 of Nijboer's 15 clay matches finished in two sets.
- 5 of Hassan's 10 clay matches finished in two sets.
- Nijboer has won 8 clay matches 2-0.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Nijboer has started clay matches better than Hassan and his return numbers give him the early edge.
- Nijboer has won 10 of 15 opening sets on clay; Hassan has won 6 of 10.
- Nijboer's first sets average 5.5 games won to 4.4 lost.
- Nijboer converts 48.8% of break points on clay.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonRyan NijboerEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Nijboer has the stronger second-set record and the second set has been where he pulls away in recent clay matches.
- Nijboer has won 11 of 15 second sets on clay; Hassan has won 7 of 10.
- Nijboer's second sets average 5.27 games won to 3.4 lost.
- Hassan's second sets average 5.3 games won to 3.3 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonRyan NijboerEstimated chance57%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Across both players' recent clay matches, sets have usually been settled before reaching 6-6.
- Only 6 of 25 combined clay matches contained a tiebreak.
- Second sets in these samples produced just 1 tiebreak.
- Both players' sets commonly end with a break rather than at 6-6.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance78%

Prediction history

Ryan Nijboer: 3/4 recent winner projections matched

3 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Ryan Nijboer matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Ryan Nijboer4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

17 Jul·Bunschoten - Netherlands

#488Ryan Nijboer0-2#231Guy Den Ouden

BetBugsRyan Nijboer to win·55%

Missed

17 Jul 2026

Bunschoten - Netherlands

#488Ryan Nijboer0-2#231Guy Den Ouden

Ryan Nijboer to win

55%probability

Guy Den Ouden won

Missed

16 Jul·Bunschoten - Netherlands

#453Niels Visker0-2#488Ryan Nijboer

BetBugsRyan Nijboer to win·58%

Matched

16 Jul 2026

Bunschoten - Netherlands

#453Niels Visker0-2#488Ryan Nijboer

Ryan Nijboer to win

58%probability

Ryan Nijboer won

Matched

14 Jul·Bunschoten - Netherlands

#414Mika Brunold1-2#488Ryan Nijboer

BetBugsRyan Nijboer to win·60%

Matched

14 Jul 2026

Bunschoten - Netherlands

#414Mika Brunold1-2#488Ryan Nijboer

Ryan Nijboer to win

60%probability

Ryan Nijboer won

Matched

12 Jul·Bunschoten - Netherlands

#725Amit Vales0-2#501Ryan Nijboer

BetBugsRyan Nijboer to win·65%

Matched

12 Jul 2026

Bunschoten - Netherlands

#725Amit Vales0-2#501Ryan Nijboer

Ryan Nijboer to win

65%probability

Ryan Nijboer won

Matched

Previous match context available

Ryan Nijboer

12W 3L

5-7 7-5 6-1#735Nico Hipfl

7-5 6-1#559Alexander Ritschard

6-4 3-6 7-6(3)—Nicolas Ifi

6-3 6-2#560Pierre Delage

6-2 6-3—Cedric Stanke

6-3 6-4#330Francesco Forti

4-6 6-3 6-4#584Alejandro Juan Mano

6-3 6-3#878Iannis Miletich

6-3 6-1#530Sander Jong

4-6 6-0 6-3#796Anas Mazdrashki

6-3 6-2—Samuel De Felipe Garcia

6-1 6-1#659Ignacio Parisca

5-7 6-2 6-2#891Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa

6-4 7-6(4)#548Martin Van Der Meerschen

7-6(2) 6-2#891Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa

Benjamin Hassan

9W 6L

6-3 6-1#764Rafael Izquierdo Luque

7-6(1) 6-3#113Zsombor Piros

1-6 6-4 6-1#209Pol Martin Tiffon

7-6(0) 6-2#701Samir Hamza Reguig

6-2 6-2#877Marsel Ilhan

7-5 6-7(4) ret.#330Francesco Forti

6-4 6-3#861Nicolas Parizzia

6-2 3-6 7-5#280Juan Manuel La Serna

6-4 6-2#460Matthew William Donald

7-5 6-7(5) 4-1 ret.#746Maximilian Marterer

6-1 2-6 6-2#264Dominic Stricker

3-6 3-2 ret.#210Lorenzo Giustino

7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(2)#441Geoffrey Blancaneaux

3-6 6-1 6-4#310Sandro Kopp

7-6(4) 6-3#615Oleksandr Ovcharenko

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

RNRyan NijboerNijboer

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Benjamin HassanHassanBH

Ryan Nijboer carries the stronger recent form — Benjamin Hassan's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In60.4%+6.1pp54.3%

1st Serve Won72.2%+3.9pp76.1%

2nd Serve Won50.7%+2.5pp53.2%

Aces / Match3.3+3.06.3

Double Faults / Match3.2—3.0

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won44.9%+8.7pp36.2%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted48.8%+11.0pp37.8%

Break Pts Saved65.2%+2.0pp63.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.1%+3.1pp51.0%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

60.4%1st Serve In+6.1pp54.3%

72.2%1st Serve Won+3.9pp76.1%

50.7%2nd Serve Won+2.5pp53.2%

3.3Aces / Match+3.06.3

3.2Double Faults / Match—3.0

Return · 1–0

44.9%Return Pts Won+8.7pp36.2%

Pressure · 2–0

48.8%Break Pts Converted+11.0pp37.8%

65.2%Break Pts Saved+2.0pp63.2%

Points · 1–0

54.1%Total Pts Won+3.1pp51.0%

Ryan Nijboer

Benjamin Hassan

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Ryan Nijboer

Ryan Nijboer

Ryan Nijboer

Ryan Nijboer 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Ryan Nijboer

Benjamin Hassan

Stat Battle