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Predictions graded

Moez Echargui #194Tunisia2Raul Brancaccio #237Italy0

Sets 7-5 · 6-4Mon 5 Oct 2026, 14:28 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions7–278%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMoez Echargui · 43 places

Moez Echargui

Tunisia

Age 33 with a career-high ranking of No. 134 on 29 December 2025. ITF lists sand/clay as his preferred surface, while ATP describes him as a counterpuncher.

Current ranking: #194
Peak ranking: #134 · 2025
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Raul Brancaccio

Italy

Italian right-hander whose career-high ranking was No. 121 in February 2023. His match record is predominantly on clay; he won the Menorca Challenger in April 2026.

Current ranking: #237
Peak ranking: #121 · 2023
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 16:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Opposite hard-court evidence meets in the Villena Challenger first round: Echargui has 14 hard matches behind him this season, while Brancaccio's only tracked hard outing in 2026 was a straight-sets loss.

Echargui is the more likely winner, but at 1.4 he is not worth backing. Brancaccio at 2.75 is the one quoted price with a case behind it.

Context

Echargui, ranked 371, has spent most of his recent tennis on hard courts and has been the quicker starter in more than half of it.
First sets have been Echargui's strongest phase across these 14 hard-court matches, and Brancaccio has almost no comparable hard-court evidence pointing the other way, just a single 0-2 loss from 24 August. That makes an early Echargui lead the likelier pattern, though a 9-5 set record from 14 matches is a small sample and says nothing certain about the second or third set.
- 11 August to 1 October 2026: Echargui won 9 of 14 first sets across tracked best-of-three hard-court matches.
- He played three first-set tiebreaks in those 14 matches.
- First sets in that sample averaged 10.4 games.
Brancaccio is the higher-ranked player at 227, yet his 2026 hard-court record consists of one match.
The 2-6, 1-6 scoreline is one match rather than a trend, and Brancaccio's clay results, including wins over higher-ranked opponents, show he can compete elsewhere. Still, this is the only direct evidence of him on a hard court this year, and it points to a demanding first round unless he settles quickly.
- 24 August 2026: lost 0-2 on hard court, winning three games across the two sets (2-6, 1-6).
- His 2026 hard-court sample therefore covers one match and 15 total games.
Echargui's hard-court sets have been close enough that his matches often extend, averaging 2.5 sets per match.
Long matches are the norm rather than the exception in Echargui's hard-court sample, which gives an expectation of over 20.5 games a reasonable basis. Brancaccio's recent matches have mostly come on clay, where totals have been similar, but his one hard-court match finished in 15 games, the kind of scoreline that would work against the pattern.
- 11 August to 1 October 2026: 14 tracked hard-court matches, averaging 25.4 total games.
- Seven of those 14 went to a third set: three 2-1 wins and four 1-2 losses.
- Six of the 14 featured at least one tiebreak.
Echargui is ranked 371, so beating a player more than 250 places above him is the standout result in his recent run.
That win shows the level Echargui can reach on a hard court, and the 7-5, 6-0 scoreline suggests he finished the match stronger than he started it. One result against one opponent does not settle how he will handle Brancaccio's clay-based game on a hard court, but it is the best reference point in his recent form.
- 30 September 2026: beat Damir Dzumhur (rank 102) 2-0, 7-5 6-0.
- Echargui won 13 of the 18 games in that match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Echargui has recent hard-court wins and a stronger first-set record, while Brancaccio's hard evidence is a single heavy loss.
- Echargui is 7-7 on hard this season, with a 9-5 first-set record on the surface.
- Brancaccio has one hard match tracked in 2026, a 0-2 loss in which he won three games.
- Echargui beat Damir Dzumhur (rank 102) 2-0 on 30 September.
- Brancaccio is 5-10 overall in his last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMoez EcharguiEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Echargui's hard matches often run long, and Brancaccio's recent clay matches also tend to produce enough games.
- Echargui's 14 hard matches average 25.4 total games.
- Seven of Echargui's 14 hard matches went to a third set.
- Brancaccio's last six clay matches all had at least 21 total games.
- Brancaccio's only hard match had 15 total games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Brancaccio's second sets have often been short, and his hard sample points to a quick set.
- Brancaccio's only hard second set had 7 games (1-6).
- Brancaccio's last six clay second sets: five had 9 or fewer games.
- Echargui's hard second sets average 9.8 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Echargui's first sets often reach double figures, and Brancaccio's clay first sets have been close.
- Echargui's hard first sets average 10.4 games.
- Echargui played three first-set tiebreaks in 14 hard matches.
- Four of Brancaccio's last six clay first sets had 10 or more games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Echargui's strong first-set record on hard outweighs Brancaccio's limited hard evidence.
- Echargui won the first set in 9 of 14 hard matches.
- Brancaccio lost his only tracked hard first set 2-6.
- Echargui won the opening set 7-5 against Dzumhur on 30 September.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMoez EcharguiEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Echargui's second-set record is modest, but Brancaccio's hard evidence shows little resistance in set two.
- Echargui won the second set in 6 of 14 hard matches.
- Brancaccio lost his only tracked hard second set 1-6.
- Echargui won the second set 6-0 against Dzumhur on 30 September.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMoez EcharguiEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Echargui's hard matches split evenly between two and three sets, and Brancaccio often goes the distance on clay.
- Echargui's 14 hard matches average exactly 2.5 sets.
- Seven of Echargui's 14 hard matches went to a third set.
- Four of Brancaccio's last six clay matches went to a third set.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance51%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A straight-set match without a tiebreak is a realistic outcome given the quick hard loss for Brancaccio.
- Brancaccio's only hard match had no tiebreak.
- Echargui had no tiebreak in 8 of 14 hard matches.
- Brancaccio's last six clay matches had four without a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance56%

Moez Echargui

8W 7L

6-1 7-5#203Edas Butvilas

7-5 6-0#102Damir Dzumhur

6-1 4-6 6-4#373Daniel Masur

6-4 7-6(8)#453Karl Poling

6-7(3) 6-4 6-3#536Luca Potenza

6-7(2) 7-5 6-1#154Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

7-5 1-6 7-6(2)#237Billy Harris

6-4 6-2#334Lucas Poullain

2-6 6-4 6-4#197Jack Pinnington Jones

6-4 6-4#128Hugo Dellien

6-3 6-4#41Hubert Hurkacz

6-4 2-6 7-6(5)#194Moise Kouame

6-2 5-0 ret.#76Camilo Ugo Carabelli

7-6(5) 7-6(5)#106Otto Virtanen

5-7 6-2 6-4#92Michael Zheng

Raul Brancaccio

5W 10L

6-4 7-6(1)#431Mika Petkovic

7-6(4) 6-2#307Filippo Romano

4-6 6-2 6-1#283Hynek Barton

2-6 6-1 6-1#64Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

5-7 6-3 6-3#144Pablo Llamas Ruiz

6-2 2-6 6-1#337Jonas Forejtek

7-6(1) 6-2#348Duje Ajdukovic

6-2 6-1#136Thiago Seyboth Wild

5-7 7-6(5) 7-6(4)#235Marvin Moeller

6-3 6-3#285Filip Cristian Jianu

7-6(4) 7-6(2)#175Elmer Moller

6-4 6-4#189Zdenek Kolar

6-4 2-6 6-1#191Harold Mayot

5-7 6-2 6-4#196Federico Agustin Gomez

7-6(5) 6-1#171Matej Dodig

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MEMoez EcharguiEchargui

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Raul BrancaccioBrancaccioRB

Moez Echargui carries the stronger recent form — Raul Brancaccio's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1556.0%+6.7pp62.7%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1568.1%+5.0pp63.1%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1548.2%+1.3pp46.9%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/154.9+2.52.4

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.90.5 fewer3.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1540.5%+2.8pp37.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1540.0%+3.1pp36.9%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1553.8%+6.0pp59.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1549.8%+2.2pp47.6%

Serve · 4–1

56.0%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+6.7pp62.7%

68.1%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+5.0pp63.1%

48.2%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.3pp46.9%

4.9Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+2.52.4

2.9Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.5 fewer3.4

Return · 1–0

40.5%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.8pp37.7%

Pressure · 1–1

40.0%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+3.1pp36.9%

53.8%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+6.0pp59.8%

Points · 1–0

49.8%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.2pp47.6%