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Predictions graded

Lucio Ratti #389Argentina1Maximo Zeitune #561Argentina2

Sets 1-6 · 6-4 · 2-6Mon 5 Oct 2026, 15:29 Predictions gradedIndoor

Predictions1–0100%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLucio Ratti · 172 places

Lucio Ratti

Argentina

Argentine right-hander, born 27 January 2004. Public player data lists a career-best No. 367 on 20 July 2026 and identifies hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #389
Peak ranking: #367 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Maximo Zeitune

Argentina

Zeitune, 20, is a 196 cm right-hander with a one-handed backhand. His career-best No. 625 was recorded in May 2026; his current ranking is No. 642.

Current ranking: #561
Peak ranking: #625 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 5 Oct 2026, 23:37 · Europe/Bucharest

A 172-place ranking gap runs the opposite way to the recent numbers: Zeitune is 10-5 in his last 15 with 74.2% of first-serve points won and 73.3% of break points saved, while Ratti is 8-7.

Zeitune to win at 2.0 is the one quoted price here that offers something. Ratti at 1.73 needs more than his recent record supports.

Context

Zeitune is ranked 561 and gives away 172 ranking places to Ratti, so these serve figures come from the lower-ranked player.
If Zeitune serves anywhere near that level, Ratti's foothold in the match will come down to the few break points he can create. The window is only 15 matches and it is not broken down by surface, so these rates describe a recent level rather than a guarantee.
- Last 15 matches: 485 of 654 first-serve points won (74.2%)
- Last 15 matches: 55 of 75 break points saved (73.3%)
- Last 15 matches: 64 aces and 21 double faults in 15 matches (4.3 and 1.4 per match)
- Record 10-5 over the same 15 matches
Ratti, the higher-ranked player at No. 389, is 8-7 over his last 15 matches.
It is one match rather than a trend, and Coria's ranking does not describe how he played that day, but the result shows Ratti's recent form can include a defeat to a player several hundred places below him. Coria also took the second and third sets, so it was not a case of a single loose set.
- 22 September 2026: lost 7-6, 3-6, 5-7 to Federico Coria, ranked 843
- Three sets, 15 games won and 19 lost
Ratti is not Martinez Portero, and a single result does not fix Zeitune's level for this match, but it shows how little he won when he met a player ranked inside the top 150. It is the counterweight to his stronger serve numbers over the same recent period.
- 9 September 2026: lost 2-6, 1-6 to Pedro Martinez Portero, ranked 130
- Three games won and 12 lost in straight sets

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Zeitune's serve and break-point saving numbers are much stronger than Ratti's, giving him the better recent clay profile.
- Ranked 561 but 10-5 in last 15 matches.
- First-serve points won 74.2%, break points saved 73.3%, and 4.3 aces per match.
- Games won 57.3% and total points won 54.1%, both better than Ratti's recent rates.
- Recent clay: 3-3 in the six listed matches, with wins over Guillen Meza (332) and lower-ranked opponents.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMaximo ZeituneEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace average of 6.1 sits under the line, and both players have recent clay matches with limited ace counts.
- Ratti averages 1.8 aces per match; Zeitune averages 4.3, combining for 6.1.
- Both players' recent matches are on clay, with 15-match samples.
- Average match duration is about 108 minutes for Ratti and 112 for Zeitune.
- Best-of-3 format with an average of about 2.3 sets per match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault average is 4.4, and Zeitune averages only 1.4 per match, making the under slightly more likely.
- Ratti averages 3.0 double faults per match; Zeitune averages 1.4, combining for 4.4.
- Ratti's first-serve-in rate is 66.6%, Zeitune's is 68.8%.
- Both players are in best-of-3 clay matches over the recent sample.
- Zeitune's 1.4 double faults per match is the lower rate in the match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Lucio Ratti

8W 7L

6-4 7-5#883Joao Victor Couto Loureiro

6-7(3) 6-3 7-5#843Federico Coria

6-1 5-7 6-4#565Lukas Pokorny

7-6(8) 7-5#554Adrian Oetzbach

6-2 6-1—Frederic Schlossmann

6-3 6-1—Nick Lemke

6-2 6-0#489Sander Jong

6-1 6-0—Maximilian Todorov

6-4 6-4#263Dominic Stricker

6-2 4-6 7-5#377Ognjen Milic

6-4 7-5#444Khumoun Sultanov

6-3 6-3#510Tai Sach

7-6(5) 6-1#248Max Basing

3-6 6-4 6-1#501Filip Jeff Planinsek

3-6 7-6(4) 6-1—Denis Petak

Maximo Zeitune

10W 5L

6-2 6-1—Diego Ortiz Gamonal

6-4 6-4#587Federico Iannaccone

6-2 6-1—Juan Jose Bianchi

7-6(7) 7-6(8)#499Alex Marti Pujolras

6-2 6-1#130Pedro Martinez Portero

6-2 4-6 7-6(1)#332Alvaro Guillen Meza

6-4 6-7(7) 6-3#543Giuseppe La Vela

6-4 6-1—Filippo Francesco Garbero

7-5 7-6(4)#813Bastian Malla

6-2 7-5—Felipe De Dios

6-4 4-6 6-2#1557Nicolas Bruna

3-6 6-2 6-3#453Felipe Meligeni Alves

6-4 6-1#680Juan Sebastian Osorio

6-0 6-3—Vitor Costa Goncalves

6-1 6-1—Ivan Dreycopp

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LRLucio RattiRatti

Last 15

1–7

9 core stats · 1 even

Maximo ZeituneZeituneMZ

Maximo Zeitune carries the stronger recent form — Lucio Ratti's route runs through return.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In66.6%+2.2pp68.8%

1st Serve Won66.2%+8.0pp74.2%

2nd Serve Won50.7%+6.1pp56.8%

Aces / Match1.8+2.54.3

Double Faults / Match3.01.6 fewer1.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.9%+1.0pp40.9%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted37.2%—37.3%

Break Pts Saved47.9%+25.4pp73.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won51.1%+3.0pp54.1%

Serve · 0–5

66.6%1st Serve In+2.2pp68.8%

66.2%1st Serve Won+8.0pp74.2%

50.7%2nd Serve Won+6.1pp56.8%

1.8Aces / Match+2.54.3

3.0Double Faults / Match1.6 fewer1.4

Return · 1–0

41.9%Return Pts Won+1.0pp40.9%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

37.2%Break Pts Converted—37.3%

47.9%Break Pts Saved+25.4pp73.3%

Points · 0–1

51.1%Total Pts Won+3.0pp54.1%