ChinaWTA SuzhouFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Han Shi #242China2Yidi Yang #393China0

Sets 6-4 · 7-6Mon 5 Oct 2026, 02:27 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions9–282%

Edges1–325%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHan Shi · 151 places

Han Shi

China

Chinese right-hander ranked No. 242. Her recent record is built almost entirely on hard courts, with 10 wins in her last 13 hard-court matches tracked. She reached the Ankara Open round of 16 with a 6-1, 6-1 opening win over Alya Naz Altinel.

Current ranking: #242
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Yidi Yang

China

Ranked No. 393, the higher-ranked player in this match. Recent tracked matches are predominantly on hard courts, with no verified career-high ranking or surface preference available.

Current ranking: #393
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 19:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Han Shi is the higher-ranked, more consistent hard-courter, but Yidi Yang's 10-3 second-set record and straight-sets qualifying win keep this final qualifying round live.

Han Shi looks the likelier winner, yet four quoted prices offer potential value: Yang to win at 4.25, Yang in either the first or second set at 3.3, and over 21.5 games at 2.2. Han Shi's 1.22 match price and the 1.29 either-set prices ask more than her record justifies.

Context

Yang has been a far more reliable player after the opening set than during it, which is worth knowing when reading the early stages of this qualifying round.
The split gives Yang a real foothold in a match where she is the lower-ranked player: her second-set numbers point to a player who can still drag a contest into a decider after losing the opener. It also fits the narrow margins in her recent scorelines rather than one-sided defeats. Han Shi's own 8-7 first-set record leaves room for Yang to take the opening set on the day.
- Yang has won 10 of 13 second sets on hard, losing three, across a sample running from 5 June to 4 October 2026.
- She is 5-8 in first sets over the same 13 hard-court matches.
- Her second sets average 8.69 total games against 9.54 in first sets.
- The 13-match surface sample excludes one retired match.
Both players won their Suzhou qualifying opener, but by different routes. Shi needed three sets and dropped the first set to Chengyiyi Yuan, while Yang finished Rina Saigo in two sets. The one-set gap is the only workload difference between them for the next qualifying round, since both played on the same day and hold the same rest window. That makes it a modest physical-cost difference attached to set count rather than to unequal recovery time.
- Han Shi won 3-6, 6-4, 6-4 after losing the opening set.
- Yidi Yang won 6-3, 6-3 in straight sets.
- Both qualifying matches were played on hard court.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 19:17 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majorswww.tennismajors.com · 4 Oct 2026
Both players are Chinese and this WTA 125 is staged in their home country, so neither travels abroad for this fixture. The immediate prize is a place in the main draw of a 32-player field, with 16 qualifiers competing for those spots. It is a 125-level tournament rather than a tour-level event, which sets the scale of what is at stake for the winner.
- The Suzhou Open is a WTA 125 hard-court event.
- It runs 5-11 October 2026 in Suzhou, China.
- The singles draw has 32 players and 16 qualifiers.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 19:17 · Europe/BucharestWTAwww.wtatennis.com · 4 Oct 2026
Han Shi has been winning more often than not in this window, but often without closing matches out in two sets.
The pattern matters for this qualifying round because it points to a longer contest: five of her wins in the window needed a third set, and only seven of the 15 finished in straight sets. Her matches average 24.0 games, which is the shape of a match that goes deep rather than one that ends early. Her five 2-0 wins are the counterweight, showing she can also finish in two.
- Han Shi's 15 completed hard-court matches from 2 September to 4 October 2026 produced five 2-1 wins, three 1-2 defeats, five 2-0 wins and two 0-2 losses.
- Her hard-court matches average 24.0 total games across those 15 matches.
- Her opening sets average 9.67 games and her second sets 9.87.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Han Shi holds the ranking and hard-court record advantage and wins a higher share of games than Yang, whose recent hard-court results are below .500.
- Han Shi is 10-5 on hard in her last 15 completed matches; Yidi Yang is 5-8 in her last 13 on the surface.
- Han Shi has won 56.4% of games (203/360) and 52.5% of points on hard this window.
- Han Shi is ranked 231 against Yang's 388, and no previous meeting is listed.
- Yang has no serve, return, break-point or point data available for this surface.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHan ShiEstimated chance60%

Games4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Yang has kept almost all of her hard-court defeats to three games or fewer, so she only needs a reasonably competitive scoreline.
- Yang's recent completed hard-court margins are +6 against Saigo and -3 against Ferro.
- Her heaviest listed loss this window was 6-3, 6-3 to Sijia Wei (-6 games).
- Han Shi has produced only one margin of six games or more in six listed hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonYidi Yang +5.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Yang only needs to stay within three games, and her recent hard-court defeats have mostly been tight scorelines.
- Yang's two most recent completed hard-court matches were a 12-6 win and an 11-14 loss.
- Her recent hard-court defeats have generally been by small margins.
- Han Shi's average game margin across six listed hard-court matches is just over +2.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonYidi Yang +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Both players' matches average more than 22 games, and a three-set match or a long straight-setter pushes this total past the mark.
- Han Shi's hard-court matches average 24.0 total games; Yang's average 22.5.
- Han Shi's opening sets average 9.67 games and her second sets 9.87.
- Yang has played a three-set match in 5 of her last 13 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets average slightly above the mark, so ten games or more is the marginally more common outcome.
- Han Shi's opening sets average 9.67 games; Yang's average 9.54.
- Han Shi has had 4 first-set tiebreaks in 15 hard-court matches; Yang one in 13.
- Han Shi's most recent opening set was 3-6 (9 games).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Yang's second sets are the shortest split either player has, which pulls the expected total just below the mark.
- Yang's second sets average 8.69 total games on hard.
- Yang has won 10 of 13 second sets, often at 6-3 or 6-4.
- Her qualifying win finished 6-3, 6-3.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Han Shi has the better opening-set record, while Yang has lost eight of her last 13 first sets on this surface.
- Han Shi is 8-7 in first sets on hard; Yang is 5-8.
- Han Shi averages 5.4 games won and 4.27 lost in opening sets; Yang 4.54 and 5.0.
- Han Shi lost the opening set 3-6 in her qualifying win over Chengyiyi Yuan.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonHan ShiEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are strong in second sets, with Han Shi slightly ahead on ranking and overall game numbers.
- Han Shi is 10-5 in second sets on hard; Yang is 10-3.
- Han Shi averages 5.67 games won and 4.2 lost in second sets; Yang 5.31 and 3.38.
- Han Shi is 10-5 overall on hard against Yang's 5-8.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonHan ShiEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players close out a good share of matches in straight sets, so a two-set finish is about as likely as a decider.
- Han Shi finished 7 of 15 hard-court matches in two sets.
- Yang finished 8 of 13 hard-court matches in two sets.
- Yang's five wins this window were all 2-0.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks are uncommon in Yang's matches and only appear in a minority of Han Shi's, so a match without one is the more likely outcome.
- Only 2 of Yang's 13 hard-court matches this window contained a tiebreak.
- Han Shi had 6 tiebreaks across 15 matches and 38 sets.
- Yang's most recent win finished 6-3, 6-3 with no tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance70%

Previous match context available

Han Shi

10W 5L

3-6 6-4 6-4#442Chengyiyi Yuan

7-6(6) 4-6 6-2#54Qinwen Zheng

6-7(5) 7-5 6-3#117Elvina Kalieva

6-0 6-2#761Tereza Mihalikova

6-3 6-4#225Berfu Cengiz

6-1 5-7 6-2#210Ayla Aksu

6-1 6-1—Alya Naz Altinel

5-7 6-3 6-4#437Unknown Player

7-6(4) 6-3#615Unknown Player

6-3 7-6(2)#459Tahlia Kokkinis

6-7(5) 6-2 6-2#437Unknown Player

6-1 6-1#248Fangran Tian

1-6 7-6(6) 6-1#187Darya Astakhova

4-6 6-4 6-1#263Haruka Kaji

6-4 6-4#288Rina Saigo

Yidi Yang

5W 10L

6-3 6-3#288Rina Saigo

6-4 2-6 6-1#108Fiona Ferro

6-2 2-6 6-4#573Michika Ozeki

6-3 6-3#421Sijia Wei

6-3 6-3#815Meng Yi Chen

7-5 6-1#604Polina Leykina

3-6 4-1 ret.#568Ayano Shimizu

6-2 5-7 7-6(3)#405Jiaqi Wang

6-4 2-6 7-5#716Peangtarn Plipuech

6-4 6-2#615Unknown Player

6-3 6-1—Alisa Vasileva

7-6(5) 4-6 7-5#583Junhan Zhang

6-3 3-6 7-5#177Mai Hontama

6-2 6-2#342Kira Pavlova

6-2 6-3#295Yufei Ren

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HSHan ShiShi

Last 15

5–2

9 core stats · 2 even

Yidi YangYangYY

Han Shi carries the stronger recent form — Yidi Yang's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In64.1%+2.7pp61.4%

1st Serve Won66.9%+7.0pp59.9%

2nd Serve Won46.1%+0.9pp45.2%

Aces / Match3.9+2.61.3

Double Faults / Match4.20.5 fewer3.7

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won46.3%—46.7%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted47.2%+3.1pp50.3%

Break Pts Saved55.0%—54.7%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.5%+2.0pp50.5%

Serve · 4–1

64.1%1st Serve In+2.7pp61.4%

66.9%1st Serve Won+7.0pp59.9%

46.1%2nd Serve Won+0.9pp45.2%

3.9Aces / Match+2.61.3

4.2Double Faults / Match0.5 fewer3.7

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

46.3%Return Pts Won—46.7%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

47.2%Break Pts Converted+3.1pp50.3%

55.0%Break Pts Saved—54.7%

Points · 1–0

52.5%Total Pts Won+2.0pp50.5%

Han Shi

Yidi Yang

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 21.5

Yidi Yang

Yidi Yang

Yidi Yang

Result1 of 1 landed

Games4 of 5 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Han Shi

Yidi Yang

Stat Battle