ItalyPalermo - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Robert Guna #866Romania0Dimitris Sakellaridis #561Greece2

Sets 5-7 · 4-6Sun 4 Oct 2026, 14:23 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions6–555%

Edges4–267%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDimitris Sakellaridis · 305 places

Robert Guna

Romania

Guna is ranked No. 866 in singles. No verified career-high, playing-hand, height or preferred-surface details were available.

Current ranking: #866
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Dimitris Sakellaridis

Greece

Sakellaridis, 20, is right-handed with a two-handed backhand. He reached his career-high singles ranking of No. 555 in August 2026.

Current ranking: #561
Peak ranking: #555 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 15:25 · Europe/Bucharest

A first qualifying round on clay between two players outside the top 500: Dimitris Sakellaridis (557) against Robert Guna (866).

A Sakellaridis win in straight sets is the likeliest shape, but the 1.73 match-winner price asks more than his even clay record supports. The quotes that hold up are two sets at 1.5, Sakellaridis 2-0 at 2.6, under 20.5 games at 2.1 and Guna for the second set at 2.0.

Context

Guna's recent clay results have been decided quickly, in wins and defeats alike.
Eight of his nine wins in the window came in straight sets, and only two matches overall reached a third, producing a 19.2-game average. The pattern held in his latest outing, a 5-12 games loss to Florian Broska (326) on 30 September. One retired match was excluded from the sample, so the 14-match window is small.
- Home setEvidence (clay, best-of-3): 14 matches from 2026-07-22 to 2026-09-30, record 9-5, total games average 19.21, scorelines 2-0 x8, 2-1 x1, 0-2 x4, 1-2 x1
- One retirement excluded from that 14-match clay sample (retirementsExcluded: 1)
- Home recentMatches[0]: 2026-09-30, lost 0-2 (2-6, 3-6) to Florian Broska (ranking 326), 5 games won to 12
Sakellaridis is the higher-ranked player at 557 and the faster starter of the two on clay in this window.
He has taken two-thirds of his first sets, with a 5.17 to 4.25 games edge, yet his second sets are level at 6-6 and the games margin there narrows to 4.42 to 4.08. Across the whole 12-match clay sample he is 6-6, so the fast starts have not always converted. Only one of the 12 matches featured a tiebreak.
- Away setEvidence (clay, best-of-3): 12 matches from 2026-08-16 to 2026-09-28, record 6-6
- Set 1: 8-4, 5.17 games won to 4.25 lost; Set 2: 6-6, 4.42 games won to 4.08 lost
- Total games average 20.92 across the 12 matches; one match with a tiebreak
His last clay match before Palermo was a narrow defeat to a higher-ranked opponent, Matthew William Donald (460).
Neither set moved beyond a two-game margin, and the second went to a tiebreak. The previous day he had beaten Filippo Francesco Garbero 7-5 6-1, so a win and a narrow loss arrived within 24 hours in very different scorelines. His 14 September clay match against Alex Marti Pujolras (497) went the other way entirely at 1-6 1-6.
- Away recentMatches[0]: 2026-09-28, clay, lost 0-2 (5-7, 6-7) to Matthew William Donald (ranking 460), 11 games won to 14
- Away recentMatches[1]: 2026-09-27, beat Filippo Francesco Garbero 2-0 (7-5, 6-1), 13 games won to 6
- Away recentMatches[4]: 2026-09-14, lost 0-2 (1-6, 1-6) to Alex Marti Pujolras (ranking 497), 2 games won to 12

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Sakellaridis is higher ranked and has solid clay metrics, giving him a slight overall edge.
- Ranking 557 vs Guna's 866
- Clay record 6-6 in 12 matches
- Total points won 50.7% on clay
- Set1 wins 8 of 12
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDimitris SakellaridisEstimated chance53%

Games1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Guna is unlikely to lose by four or more games given the close matchup.
- Guna recent clay losses by -7, -5 games
- Sakellaridis recent losses include -10, -3 games
- Match is close with Sakellaridis 53% favorite
- Guna unlikely to lose by 4+ games
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostRobert Guna +3.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets on clay for both players tend to be shorter than 9.5 games.
- Guna set2 total games average 8.43
- Sakellaridis set2 total games average 8.50
- Combined average 8.47
- Second sets often 6-3 or 6-4
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First-set totals for both players average below 9.5 on clay.
- Guna set1 total games average 9.29
- Sakellaridis set1 total games average 9.42
- Combined average 9.35
- First sets often 6-3 or 6-4
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Both players often finish matches in straight sets with modest game totals.
- Guna clay total games average 19.21
- Sakellaridis clay total games average 20.92
- Guna's straight-set wins often under 20 games
- Combined average around 20.1
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 20.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sakellaridis is slightly favored to at least match Guna's total games.
- Sakellaridis wins or ties game count in 4 of 6 recent clay matches
- Sakellaridis match win 53%
- Sakellaridis recent clay wins by +7, +7, +5
- Guna -0.5 probability 47%
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonDimitris Sakellaridis +0.5Estimated chance53%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both players have mostly finished in straight sets on clay.
- Guna 12 of 14 matches straight sets
- Sakellaridis 8 of 12 matches straight sets
- Combined three-set rate about 23%
- Set betting gives 22% three-set chance
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Sakellaridis has a strong first-set record and the ranking edge.
- Set1 wins 8 of 12 on clay
- Set1 games won average 5.17
- Set1 games lost average 4.25
- Ranking 557
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonDimitris SakellaridisEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Guna has been notably stronger in second sets on clay.
- Set2 wins 9 of 14 on clay
- Set2 games won average 4.93
- Set2 games lost average 3.5
- Set2 win rate 64%
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostRobert GunaEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been rare in these players' recent clay matches.
- Guna had 3 tiebreaks in 14 matches
- Sakellaridis had 1 tiebreak in 12 matches
- Combined tiebreak rate 15%
- Most matches finished without a tiebreak
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance75%

Robert Guna

10W 5L

6-2 6-3#326Florian Broska

7-6(3) 0-6 6-3—Vlad Cristian Breazu

6-4 1-0 ret.#285Filip Cristian Jianu

6-3 6-1—Daniele Minighini

6-3 7-5#878Iannis Miletich

6-1 6-3#562Ignacio Monzon

6-3 6-2—Leonardo Angeloni

6-4 6-0—Alejandro Mateo Berge Nourescu

6-0 6-1#795Rares Teodor Pieleanu

7-5 6-2#846Francesco Ferrari

6-3 6-2—Rares Andrei Golescu

6-3 6-3#319Radu Mihai Papoe

6-1 6-2#792Yannick Theodor Alexandrescou

7-6(3) 2-6 7-5#701Samir Hamza Reguig

6-3 7-6(2)#1377Vladislav Melnic

Dimitris Sakellaridis

8W 7L

7-5 7-6(6)#460Matthew William Donald

7-5 6-1—Filippo Francesco Garbero

1-6 7-5 6-4—Lorenzo Berto

6-3 6-2#1557Alessandro Ceppellini

6-1 6-1#497Alex Marti Pujolras

7-5 6-3—Lorenzo Beraldo

6-4 4-6 6-4#539Leonardo Rossi

4-6 7-6(2) 6-0—Antonio Marigliano

6-2 7-5—Giammarco Gandolfi

6-3 6-1#597Bruno Fernandez

3-6 6-1 6-2#886Iiro Vasa

6-4 6-3—Tim Hammes

3-6 6-1 6-2—Alessandro Hunziker

3-6 6-3 6-4#615Oleksandr Ovcharenko

6-2 6-1#836Gian Luca Tanner

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

RGRobert GunaGuna

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Dimitris SakellaridisSakellaridisDS

Robert Guna carries the stronger recent form — Dimitris Sakellaridis's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In56.6%+4.2pp60.8%

1st Serve Won70.5%+5.0pp65.5%

2nd Serve Won52.7%+6.8pp45.9%

Aces / Match2.7+0.43.1

Double Faults / Match1.33.0 fewer4.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won44.8%—44.2%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted49.0%—49.2%

Break Pts Saved41.4%+18.1pp59.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.3%+2.1pp51.2%

Serve · 3–2

56.6%1st Serve In+4.2pp60.8%

70.5%1st Serve Won+5.0pp65.5%

52.7%2nd Serve Won+6.8pp45.9%

2.7Aces / Match+0.43.1

1.3Double Faults / Match3.0 fewer4.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

44.8%Return Pts Won—44.2%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

49.0%Break Pts Converted—49.2%

41.4%Break Pts Saved+18.1pp59.5%

Points · 1–0

53.3%Total Pts Won+2.1pp51.2%

Robert Guna

Dimitris Sakellaridis

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Under 20.5

Robert Guna

Dimitris Sakellaridis 2-0

Dimitris Sakellaridis

Dimitris Sakellaridis

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 5 landed

Sets2 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Robert Guna

Dimitris Sakellaridis

Stat Battle