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Predictions graded

Oscar Jose Gutierrez #723Spain1Yanaki Milev #7502

Sets 2-6 · 6-4 · 1-6Sun 4 Oct 2026, 08:07 Predictions gradedGravel

Predictions1–0100%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageOscar Jose Gutierrez · 27 places

Oscar Jose Gutierrez

Spain

Gutierrez, 33, is a right-hander who identifies clay as his preferred surface. His ATP career high was No. 363 in November 2019.

Current ranking: #723
Peak ranking: #363 · 2019
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Yanaki Milev

He reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 443 on 26 August 2024 and was No. 750 on 27 July 2026. All 10 of his listed ITF singles finals were played on clay, including four titles.

Current ranking: #750
Peak ranking: #443 · 2024
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 15:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Two clay regulars ranked outside the top 600 meet in Palermo, and Milev's steadier results make him the likelier winner — he has beaten opponents ranked 280, 341 and 579, while Gutierrez's recent wins came against unranked players.

Gutierrez's 6-9 run and 3.7 double faults per match work against him, yet his return numbers keep him in rallies. Of the selections reviewed, only Gutierrez to win at 19 offers value.

Context

Milev, ranked 611, has shown he can beat opponents well inside the top 300 on clay.
La Serna's ranking of 280 sits far above Milev's 611, so this is the clearest evidence that Milev can handle a higher-ranked clay opponent. The counterweight is that it took three sets, and it came in a window where he also lost to Compagnucci (366) and Kravchenko (309). One result does not settle the matchup, but it is the sort of win Gutierrez has not managed recently.
- 4 September 2026: Milev beat Juan Manuel La Serna, ranked 280, 6-3 3-6 6-1 on clay in a completed best-of-three match.
- Milev won 15 games to La Serna's 10; the match is one of six completed clay matches listed in his recent window.
Gutierrez, ranked 700, has handed opponents 56 double faults in 15 matches while hitting 30 aces.
In the same 15 matches he won 47.5% of second-serve points and saved 55.0% of break points (61 of 111), so he has absorbed pressure rather than folding under it. Even so, nearly two more double faults than aces per match gives Milev's return game repeated openings in a clay match where rallies are long. The sample is small and spans a matter of weeks, so this reads as a tendency rather than a fixed pattern.
- Gutierrez's 15-match sample: 6 wins, 9 losses, 56 double faults (3.7 per match) and 30 aces (2.0 per match).
- Across the same 15 completed matches he won 47.5% of second-serve points and saved 55.0% of break points (61 of 111).
Rodenas is ranked 70 places below Gutierrez, and Gutierrez did not win more than three games in either set, so this is a notable entry at the top of his recent record. It does not describe how he will play in Palermo, but it is the freshest evidence available, and it sits alongside his 6-9 run in the wider 15-match window. His aggregate total points won (49.5%) shows these matches are rarely one-sided; this scoreboard was.
- 29 September 2026: Gutierrez lost 3-6 3-6 to Pedro Rodenas, ranked 630, on clay, winning 6 games to 12.
- It is the most recent of the 15 completed matches tracked in his sample.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Milev has been the more reliable clay performer, winning most matches against opponents in the 280-580 ranking band while Gutierrez has beaten mainly unranked players and lost his last two on clay in straight sets.
- Milev is 8-6 in his last 14 completed matches, all on clay, and has beaten opponents ranked 341, 280 and 579 in this window.
- Gutierrez is 6-9 in his last 15; his recent clay wins came against unranked opponents, while his losses include Rodenas (630) and Gakhov (446) in straight sets.
- Gutierrez holds a 47.7% games-won and 37.1% sets-won rate over that 15-match sample, with 55.0% of break points saved.
- Milev sits 89 ranking places higher (611 vs 700); no serve or return metrics are available for him and neither player has setEvidence samples.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonYanaki MilevEstimated chance67%

Oscar Jose Gutierrez

6W 9L

6-3 6-3#630Pedro Rodenas

6-2 6-4#446Ivan Gakhov

6-7(6) 6-4 6-2—Bernardo Munk Mesa

6-2 7-6(4)#454Santiago Rodriguez Taverna

7-5 5-7 6-4—Juan Ignacio Gallego

6-3 6-3—Asier Meneses Perny

7-6(5) 6-3—Ferdinand Livet Novkirichka

6-2 6-2—Valentin Lapalu

6-4 6-0#328Carlos Sanchez Jover

6-0 5-7 7-5—Ivan Iutkin

6-4 6-4#884Tom Zeuch

6-2 6-2#327Marko Topo

6-4 6-3#630Pedro Rodenas

6-7(5) 6-1 6-4#396Eric Vanshelboim

6-2 1-6 6-3—Sergio Planella Hernandez

Yanaki Milev

9W 6L

6-3 1-6 6-3#366Tommaso Compagnucci

6-2 6-1#525Luca Wiedenmann

6-1 3-6 6-3#579Kirill Kivattsev

6-0 6-2#309Georgii Kravchenko

6-4 5-7 6-2#341Valerio Aboian

6-3 3-6 6-1#280Juan Manuel La Serna

7-5 6-0#659Ignacio Parisca

7-6(6) 3-6 6-4#301Petr Nesterov

2-6 7-6(8) 7-5#446Ivan Gakhov

6-2 6-7(4) 6-4—Jose Dominguez Alonso

5-0 ret.#631Carlos Lopez Montagud

6-3 6-2—Bernardo Munk Mesa

6-3 6-1#883George Lazarov

6-4 6-4#308Oriol Roca Batalla

6-4 7-5#533Pedro Vives Marcos

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

OGOscar Jose GutierrezGutierrez

Last 15

1–5

9 core stats · 3 even

Yanaki MilevMilevYM

Yanaki Milev carries the stronger recent form — Oscar Jose Gutierrez's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–1 · 3 even

1st Serve In59.1%—58.8%

1st Serve Won66.6%+2.9pp63.7%

2nd Serve Won47.5%+5.2pp52.7%

Aces / Match2.0—1.8

Double Faults / Match3.7—3.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won40.2%+1.6pp41.8%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted41.3%+2.6pp43.9%

Break Pts Saved55.0%+13.6pp68.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.5%+1.3pp50.8%

Serve · 1–1 · 3 even

59.1%1st Serve In—58.8%

66.6%1st Serve Won+2.9pp63.7%

47.5%2nd Serve Won+5.2pp52.7%

2.0Aces / Match—1.8

3.7Double Faults / Match—3.5

Return · 0–1

40.2%Return Pts Won+1.6pp41.8%

Pressure · 0–2

41.3%Break Pts Converted+2.6pp43.9%

55.0%Break Pts Saved+13.6pp68.6%

Points · 0–1

49.5%Total Pts Won+1.3pp50.8%