PortugalBraga - PortugalFinished

Predictions graded

Oleksii Krutykh #522Ukraine2Francisco Rocha #803Portugal1

Sets 6-7 · 6-2 · 6-2Sun 4 Oct 2026, 13:35 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions4–544%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageOleksii Krutykh · 281 places

Oleksii Krutykh

Ukraine

Krutykh reached a career-high No. 160 on 27 February 2023 and is currently No. 522. His 2026 activity has been concentrated on clay, although the sources do not explicitly designate a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #522
Peak ranking: #160 · 2023
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Francisco Rocha

Portugal

Reached a career-best No. 675 in July 2025. Current ATP singles ranking is No. 803.

Current ranking: #803
Peak ranking: #675 · 2025
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 15:35 · Europe/Bucharest

Qualifying-round clay in Braga, with Krutykh ranked 449 and holding a 9-6 clay record over his last 15 tracked matches, against Rocha at 854, who has lost both of his two tracked clay matches.

Krutykh is the likely winner, most probably in straight sets, but every reviewed price asks more than the evidence supports: 1.15 to win, 1.25 per set, 1.55 for 2-0. No quoted price is worthwhile.

Context

Krutykh has played almost all of his recent clay tennis in two-set matches, in both directions.
Straight sets is the most likely shape of this match if the pattern holds, and it also flags that his clay results have swung between convincing wins and straight-set defeats rather than running consistently close.
- Home clay set evidence: 15 matches from 2026-08-03 to 2026-09-23, with scorelines of 2-0 (8), 2-1 (1), 0-2 (5) and 1-2 (1).
- Those matches average 21.1 total games and 2.13 sets, and four of the 15 included a tiebreak.
- Krutykh's clay record over the same window is 9 wins and 6 losses.
Rocha's only tracked clay tennis is a two-match sample that went badly.
Two matches cannot show how he will handle the surface in Braga; they establish only that the small amount of clay evidence on file is unfavourable, against a much larger body of clay results for his opponent.
- Away clay set evidence: 2 matches from 2026-07-18 to 2026-09-01, both scorelines 0-2.
- Rocha won 40.5% of games (17 of 42) and 45.9% of total points (122 of 266) in those clay matches.
- Neither of the two matches included a tiebreak.
Krutykh's most recent clay outing finished in a straight-set loss to a much lower-ranked opponent.
It is the counterweight to his 9-6 clay record: he can be beaten in two sets by a lower-ranked player on the surface, so his ranking edge should not be read as comfort.
- Krutykh lost 6-7 4-6 to Petros Tsitsipas (ranking 879) on clay on 2026-09-23.
- The match lasted two sets, with Krutykh winning 10 games to 13.
Rocha's most recent tracked tennis was played on hard courts rather than clay.
That result says little directly about how he will play on clay in Braga; it shows only that his latest form has been compiled on a different surface.
- Rocha lost 6-4 3-6 1-6 to Lui Maxted (ranking 394) on hard on 2026-09-27.
- It is the most recent match in his supplied tracked record.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Oleksii Krutykh

1.25fair 1.35

BetBugs 74% · Market 80%

−6.0ppshort

Krutykh's stronger clay record and better serve numbers give him a first-set edge.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Oleksii Krutykh

1.15fair 1.35

BetBugs 74% · Market 87%

−13.0ppshort

Krutykh has far more clay evidence and clearly better clay results, making him the likely winner.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Oleksii Krutykh

1.25fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 80%

−10.0ppshort

Krutykh's second-set record is solid, and Rocha has struggled to hold serve on clay.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Krutykh has far more clay evidence and clearly better clay results, making him the likely winner.
- Krutykh is ranked 449 vs Rocha 854.
- Krutykh is 9-6 on clay over his last 15 tracked matches.
- Rocha is 0-2 on clay with 40.5% games won.
- Krutykh's clay total points won is 51.5% vs Rocha's 45.9%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonOleksii KrutykhEstimated chance74%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rocha's second sets have been long even in defeat, and Krutykh's are near the line.
- Krutykh's clay second sets average 9.9 total games.
- Rocha's clay second sets average 11.0 total games.
- Krutykh had 2 tiebreaks in 15 clay second sets.
- Rocha had 0 tiebreaks in 2 clay second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets on clay often reach at least 10 games between players at this level.
- Krutykh's clay first sets average 10.0 total games.
- Rocha's clay first sets average 10.0 total games.
- Krutykh had 2 tiebreaks in 15 clay first sets.
- Rocha had 0 tiebreaks in 2 clay first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Their clay match averages sit close to the line, with a small three-set chance pushing totals upward.
- Krutykh's clay matches average 21.1 total games.
- Rocha's two clay matches average 21.0 total games.
- Krutykh's clay matches include 13% three-setters.
- Both players have recent straight-set matches near 20 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results dominate both players' clay samples.
- Krutykh won or lost in straight sets in 13 of 15 clay matches.
- Rocha's two clay matches were both straight-set losses.
- Krutykh's clay sets average is 2.13.
- Rocha's clay sets average is 2.0.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance81%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Krutykh's stronger clay record and better serve numbers give him a first-set edge.
- Krutykh won the first set in 9 of 15 clay matches.
- Rocha lost the first set in both clay matches.
- Krutykh's clay set1 games won average is 5.13.
- Rocha's clay set1 games won average is 4.0.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostOleksii KrutykhEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Krutykh's second-set record is solid, and Rocha has struggled to hold serve on clay.
- Krutykh won the second set in 9 of 15 clay matches.
- Rocha lost both clay second sets.
- Krutykh's clay set2 games won average is 5.6.
- Rocha's clay set2 games won average is 4.5.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonOleksii KrutykhEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Krutykh's strong clay form and Rocha's poor clay sets favor a straight-set win.
- Krutykh's clay scorelines include 8 wins in straight sets.
- Rocha lost both clay matches 0-2.
- Krutykh has a 9-6 clay record over his last 15 tracked matches.
- Rocha has won no clay sets in two tracked matches.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostOleksii Krutykh 2-0Estimated chance63%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their recent clay sets have been decided by breaks rather than tiebreaks.
- Krutykh had 4 tiebreaks in 15 clay matches.
- Rocha had 0 tiebreaks in 2 clay matches.
- Rocha had no tiebreaks in his last six matches overall.
- Krutykh's clay second sets included 2 tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' clay double-fault averages sum below the line, and straight-set matches reduce the total.
- Krutykh averages 2.5 double faults per clay match.
- Rocha averages 2.5 double faults per clay match.
- Krutykh's clay double faults total 38 in 15 matches.
- Rocha's clay double faults total 5 in 2 matches.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Their combined clay ace rate sits just above the 6.5 line.
- Krutykh averages 3.1 aces per clay match.
- Rocha averages 3.5 aces per clay match.
- Krutykh's first-serve points won on clay is 73.7%.
- Rocha's first-serve points won on clay is 61.0%.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%

Oleksii Krutykh

9W 6L

7-6(3) 6-4#879Petros Tsitsipas

4-6 7-5 6-3#388Massimo Giunta

7-5 6-4#635Stefan Popovic

6-3 6-4#248Matias Soto

6-4 6-2#578Federico Iannaccone

6-2 7-6(3)#727Kasra Rahmani

6-2 6-4#221Chun Hsin Tseng

6-3 6-0#275Nick Hardt

6-3 6-4#511Daniel Siniakov

6-4 6-1#321Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi

2-6 6-2 6-4#751Michael Vrbensky

6-3 7-6(4)#363Dylan Dietrich

7-5 7-5#819Jannik Opitz

7-6(4) 6-1#896David Poljak

6-4 7-5#171Matej Dodig

Francisco Rocha

5W 10L

4-6 6-3 6-1#394Lui Maxted

6-2 6-2#791Michael Agwi

6-3 6-2—Salvador Monteiro

6-1 7-5#767Benjamin Pietri

6-2 6-2#724Jack Anthrop

6-3 6-4—Joao Dinis Silva

6-2 6-4—Julien Penzlin

6-4 7-5#339Tiago Pereira

7-6(5) 6-3#643Tiago Cacao

6-4 6-4#176Gonzalo Bueno

6-4 6-7(8) 6-2#643Tiago Cacao

7-5 6-3—Lucas Marionneau

6-7(1) 6-1 7-6(5)—Matisse Farzam

6-3 3-6 7-5#459Emile Hudd

4-6 7-6(8) 6-1#312Mert Alkaya

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

OKOleksii KrutykhKrutykh

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Francisco RochaRochaFR

Oleksii Krutykh carries the stronger recent form — Francisco Rocha's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In57.2%+1.0pp56.2%

1st Serve Won73.7%+5.2pp68.5%

2nd Serve Won53.6%+5.8pp47.8%

Aces / Match3.1+0.43.5

Double Faults / Match2.51.2 fewer3.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won38.6%+2.2pp36.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted37.1%+3.1pp40.2%

Break Pts Saved65.3%+13.3pp52.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.5%+3.3pp48.2%

Serve · 4–1

57.2%1st Serve In+1.0pp56.2%

73.7%1st Serve Won+5.2pp68.5%

53.6%2nd Serve Won+5.8pp47.8%

3.1Aces / Match+0.43.5

2.5Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer3.7

Return · 1–0

38.6%Return Pts Won+2.2pp36.4%

Pressure · 1–1

37.1%Break Pts Converted+3.1pp40.2%

65.3%Break Pts Saved+13.3pp52.0%

Points · 1–0

51.5%Total Pts Won+3.3pp48.2%

Oleksii Krutykh

Francisco Rocha

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Oleksii Krutykh

Oleksii Krutykh

Oleksii Krutykh

Oleksii Krutykh 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Oleksii Krutykh

Francisco Rocha

Stat Battle