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Predictions graded

Joshua Sheehy #661United States1Ivan Marrero Curbelo #350Spain2

Sets 2-6 · 6-2 · 6-7Sun 4 Oct 2026, 15:40 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions5–456%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageIvan Marrero Curbelo · 311 places

Joshua Sheehy

United States

Career-high ranking No. 536 was recorded in February 2026. A Morelia Challenger retirement was listed from March-April 2026, but no current report links it to this Kingston event.

Current ranking: #661
Peak ranking: #536 · 2026
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 188 cm

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Spain

Marrero Curbelo, 27, is a Spanish right-hander. His current No. 350 ranking is also his career best, reached in August 2026.

Current ranking: #350
Peak ranking: #350 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 15:39 · Europe/Bucharest

First qualifying round at the Villena Challenger: Ivan Marrero Curbelo, ranked 365, against Joshua Sheehy, ranked 769.

Sheehy has lost his last six completed matches and is 2-8 on hard courts; Marrero Curbelo is the likely winner. At 1.44 he is the one reviewed price worth taking — the 1.50 for him to win the first set, and again the second, asks more than his set records support.

Context

Sheehy, ranked 769, arrives with very little winning form behind him.
Sheehy's 14 tracked matches in the last-15 window produced only two wins, and his hard-court subset is 2-8 from 10 completed best-of-three matches between 24 May and 13 September 2026. That is the baseline he brings into a first qualifying round against a player ranked 404 places above him. The counts are small and cover only part of a season, so this is context rather than a forecast in itself.
- Last-15 window: 2 wins, 12 losses in 14 completed matches tracked.
- Hard-court record within the same window: 2 wins, 8 losses in 10 completed best-of-three matches, 24 May to 13 September 2026.
Marrero Curbelo, the higher-ranked player here, has rarely settled matches quickly on this surface.
His scoreline spread across 14 completed hard-court best-of-three matches (21 June to 27 September 2026) is three 2-0 wins, five 2-1 wins, two 1-2 losses and four 0-2 losses, averaging 2.5 sets and 23.3 games per match. That pattern points to a match that may take time to settle even if he is favoured. There is a counterweight in his starts: he lost the opening set in 8 of those 14 matches, so a fast beginning is not assured. The 14-match sample excludes one retirement.
- 14 completed hard-court best-of-three matches tracked, 21 June to 27 September 2026.
- Scorelines: five 2-1 wins, two 1-2 losses, four 0-2 losses, three 2-0 wins; 2.5 sets and 23.3 games per match on average.
- Set one: 6 wins, 8 losses across the same 14 matches.
Opening sets have been the most competitive part of Sheehy's recent hard-court record.
His set-one games average is 5.2 won against 4.8 lost, and he took the opening set in half of his hard-court matches in the sample. Turning that into match wins has been the problem: he is 2-8 overall in the same 10-match sample, with five 1-2 defeats. Only one tiebreak appears in the entire set-one sample, so those early sets have usually been settled by a single break. The 10-match sample excludes one retirement.
- 10 completed hard-court best-of-three matches tracked, 24 May to 13 September 2026.
- Set one: 5 wins, 5 losses, averaging 5.2 games won and 4.8 lost, with one tiebreak.
- Overall record in the same sample: 2 wins, 8 losses.
Marrero Curbelo's most recent listed result came against a lower-ranked opponent.
Potenza sits 171 places below Marrero Curbelo, and the 4-6, 6-4, 3-6 scoreline went the distance. It followed a 1-2 loss to Maks Kasnikowski (234) on 7 September, though Marrero Curbelo did beat Blaise Bicknell (414) in a deciding set on 25 August. One result does not outweigh a 404-place ranking gap, but it shows his recent run has not been clean.
- 27 September 2026: lost 1-2 to Luca Potenza (536), 13 games to 16.
- 7 September 2026: lost 1-2 to Maks Kasnikowski (234).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

−6.7ppshort

Marrero Curbelo starts as the higher-ranked player, though set-one records are close.

Set 2 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

1.50fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 66.7%

−8.7ppshort

Marrero Curbelo's set-two record is level and his overall hard-court form is stronger.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Marrero Curbelo has the stronger ranking and a much better hard-court win record, while Sheehy has lost his last six completed matches.
- Ivan Marrero Curbelo is ranked 365, Joshua Sheehy 769.
- Marrero Curbelo has 8 wins and 6 losses on hard courts in the last 15 window; Sheehy has 2 wins and 8 losses.
- Marrero Curbelo's hard-court set evidence shows 8 wins from 14 completed best-of-three matches; Sheehy has 2 wins from 10.
- Sheehy has lost his last six completed matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIvan Marrero CurbeloEstimated chance76%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players often go the distance on hard courts, and their recent matches frequently passed 24.5 games.
- Sheehy's hard-court matches average 25.1 total games; Marrero Curbelo's average 23.3.
- Both players' recent completed matches went over 24.5 games in four of their last six.
- Marrero Curbelo's 14 hard-court matches average 2.5 sets, and Sheehy's 10 also average 2.5 sets.
- Three-set matches are common for both.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 24.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Marrero Curbelo's second sets frequently last at least 10 games, and Sheehy's set-two matches often go long.
- Sheehy's set-two matches average 9.8 total games; Marrero Curbelo's average 10.21.
- Marrero Curbelo's last six completed matches had set two go over 9.5 games in five of six.
- Sheehy's set-two matches had three tiebreaks in 10 hard-court matches.
- Their combined set-two average is about 10.0 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have recently played set ones that often reached at least 10 games.
- Sheehy's set-one matches average 10.0 total games; Marrero Curbelo's average 9.07.
- Four of Sheehy's last six completed matches had set one go over 9.5 games.
- Four of Marrero Curbelo's last six completed matches had set one go over 9.5 games.
- Their combined set-one average is about 9.5 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Marrero Curbelo starts as the higher-ranked player, though set-one records are close.
- Marrero Curbelo won set one in 6 of 14 hard-court matches; Sheehy won it in 5 of 10.
- Marrero Curbelo's set-one games average is 4.36 won and 4.71 lost.
- Sheehy's set-one games average is 5.2 won and 4.8 lost.
- Marrero Curbelo is the higher-ranked player by 404 places.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonIvan Marrero CurbeloEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have frequently been taken to a deciding set on hard courts, making a three-set match plausible.
- Both players' hard-court matches average exactly 2.5 sets.
- Marrero Curbelo has five 2-1 wins and two 1-2 losses in 14 hard-court matches.
- Sheehy has five 1-2 losses in 10 hard-court matches.
- Recent matches for both include several three-set battles.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Marrero Curbelo's set-two record is level and his overall hard-court form is stronger.
- Marrero Curbelo won set two in 7 of 14 hard-court matches.
- His set-two games average is 5.0 won and 5.21 lost.
- Sheehy won set two in 4 of 10 hard-court matches.
- Marrero Curbelo has a better overall hard-court win record (8-6 vs 2-8).
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostIvan Marrero CurbeloEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of Marrero Curbelo's matches and a majority of Sheehy's have finished without a tiebreak.
- Marrero Curbelo's hard-court matches had no tiebreak in 12 of 14 matches.
- Sheehy's hard-court matches had no tiebreak in 6 of 10 matches.
- Combined, 18 of 24 hard-court matches had no tiebreak.
- Both players average 2.5 sets per match.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance73%

Joshua Sheehy

3W 12L

7-5 6-3#510Patrick Zahraj

7-5 6-0#502Evan Zhu

6-2 ret.#1851Luis Britto

6-3 2-6 7-6(2)#346Abedallah Shelbayh

4-6 7-6(5) 7-5#794Renta Tokuda

4-6 6-3 6-0#343Edward Winter

6-3 6-7(2) 7-5#524Christian Langmo

6-3 6-2—Kelly Giese

7-6(3) 7-6(2)#409Sebastian Gorzny

2-6 6-3 6-4#438Enzo Aguiard

6-2 6-4#373Daniel Masur

6-3 6-4#445Nerman Fatic

6-3 6-4#469Quinn Vandecasteele

6-2 6-4#338Tyler Zink

7-5 6-3#678Bruno Kuzuhara

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

8W 7L

6-4 4-6 6-3#536Luca Potenza

4-6 7-5 6-0#234Maks Kasnikowski

6-4 2-0 ret.#781Oskari Paldanius

6-4 6-2#206Andres Andrade

3-6 7-5 6-2#414Blaise Bicknell

6-4 6-4#768Lucas Andrade Da Silva

6-2 4-6 6-3—Lev Seidman

6-3 6-3#367Mathys Erhard

2-6 7-6(4) 6-1#234Maks Kasnikowski

6-1 3-6 6-3#674Filip Peliwo

6-3 6-4#230Alejandro Moro Canas

6-4 6-3#190Facundo Mena

2-6 7-6(8) 6-2#450Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

6-4 6-3—Enrique Collar

6-3 6-3#693Keshav Chopra

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JSJoshua SheehySheehy

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Ivan Marrero CurbeloCurbeloIC

Ivan Marrero Curbelo carries the stronger recent form — Joshua Sheehy's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In58.8%+7.5pp66.3%

1st Serve Won71.2%+5.2pp66.0%

2nd Serve Won46.3%+4.4pp50.7%

Aces / Match6.3+5.21.1

Double Faults / Match5.12.1 fewer3.0

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won33.2%+6.7pp39.9%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted43.9%+5.1pp38.8%

Break Pts Saved70.0%+18.0pp52.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won47.7%+2.3pp50.0%

Serve · 2–3

58.8%1st Serve In+7.5pp66.3%

71.2%1st Serve Won+5.2pp66.0%

46.3%2nd Serve Won+4.4pp50.7%

6.3Aces / Match+5.21.1

5.1Double Faults / Match2.1 fewer3.0

Return · 0–1

33.2%Return Pts Won+6.7pp39.9%

Pressure · 2–0

43.9%Break Pts Converted+5.1pp38.8%

70.0%Break Pts Saved+18.0pp52.0%

Points · 0–1

47.7%Total Pts Won+2.3pp50.0%