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Predictions graded

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo #3892Santiago De La Fuente #724Argentina1

Sets 6-1 · 6-7 · 6-0Sun 4 Oct 2026, 13:00 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions3–633%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJoaquin Aguilar Cardozo · 335 places

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

He completed four consecutive ITF singles titles in August 2026. His published match record is predominantly on clay.

Current ranking: #389
Peak ranking: #389
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 168 cm

Santiago De La Fuente

Argentina

Argentinian right-hander ranked No. 724 whose tracked 2026 record consists almost entirely of South American clay events. He is the No. 9 seed in the Curitiba Challenger 75 qualifying and reached the final qualifying round. Reliable public profile information beyond his ranking and recent clay results is thin.

Current ranking: #724
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 15:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Aguilar Cardozo arrives with 14 wins in 15 clay matches, 12 of them in straight sets, while De La Fuente, ranked 392 places lower, has still won 10 of 14 opening sets.

A straightforward Aguilar Cardozo win, probably in two sets, is the likely outcome. Of the prices reviewed, De La Fuente at 10.0 carries a value edge; Aguilar Cardozo at 1.02 asks far too much.

Context

Aguilar Cardozo won four consecutive ITF singles titles in August 2026, all on clay, which is the same surface he and his most recent opponents have been playing on. The streak places him in an active competitive rhythm coming into a Chilean clay fixture against a lower-ranked opponent, and his stored record over the past month is almost entirely clay wins. The counterpoint is level: ITF titles rank below the Challenger tier, so the run is a current form indicator for this match rather than proof he converts that form against a more Challenger-tested opponent.
- Aguilar Cardozo won four consecutive ITF singles titles in August 2026.
- The run was played on clay, the surface of all of his stored recent matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 15:30 · Europe/BucharestInfobrisaswww.infobrisas.com · 30 Aug 2026TennisExplorerwww.tennisexplorer.com · 30 Aug 2026
Starting sets well is the most reliable part of De La Fuente's clay game and his main route into this match.
His first-set record of 10 wins and 4 losses is stronger than his second-set record of 8 and 6, so the early games are where he has been most competitive. Aguilar Cardozo has won 13 of his 15 opening sets in the same period, so even that strength faces a stiff test here.
- 14 tracked clay matches, 14 July – 28 September 2026: first set won 10, lost 4.
- First-set games average 5.5 won to 3.93 lost; second-set games average 4.5 won to 3.86 lost.
That win over a top-130 opponent is the best evidence of Aguilar Cardozo's current level, and it also shows he can be extended.
He won 12 of his 15 tracked clay matches in straight sets, so the Comesana match is the exception; it suggests a stronger opponent can take a set off him. De La Fuente, ranked No. 728, has not faced anyone at that level in his own sample.
- 23 September 2026: beat Francisco Comesana, ranked No. 123, 2-1 (7-5, 6-7, 6-4) on clay.
- 12 of Aguilar Cardozo's 15 tracked clay matches (19 August – 26 September 2026) finished 2-0.
The favourite's clay sample is otherwise close to flawless, so the Barrena result is the clearest sign that he can be beaten on this surface.
Barrena sits more than 100 ranking places above De La Fuente, and the loss is the only blemish in a 14-1 clay stretch from 19 August to 26 September 2026. It sets the level De La Fuente would need to reach to trouble him, rather than suggesting an upset is likely.
- 26 September 2026: lost 0-2 (4-6, 3-6) to Alex Barrena, ranked No. 220, on clay.
- Aguilar Cardozo's tracked clay record: 14 wins, 1 loss in 15 matches from 19 August to 26 September 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Aguilar Cardozo has dominated this surface over a sustained run and has beaten much higher-ranked clay opponents than the one he faces here.
- Aguilar Cardozo is 14-1 in 15 tracked clay matches, winning 28 of 32 sets (87.5%) and 65.3% of games.
- He has taken the first set 13 of 15 times and the second set 13 of 15 times on clay.
- Ranking gap: ATP 336 against ATP 728; his recent wins include opponents ranked 123, 193 and 347.
- De La Fuente is 9-5 on clay, but his recent losses came to players ranked 526, 860 and 329.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJoaquin Aguilar CardozoEstimated chance80%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Aguilar Cardozo wins his opening sets by wide margins often enough that nine games or fewer is the more likely outcome.
- Aguilar Cardozo's first sets average 8.67 total games.
- De La Fuente's first sets average 9.43 total games.
- Aguilar Cardozo has played no first-set tiebreak in 15 clay matches.
- Aguilar Cardozo allows only 2.87 games per opening set.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second-set game totals sit below the line, and Aguilar Cardozo usually closes sets out quickly.
- Aguilar Cardozo's second sets average 9.0 total games.
- De La Fuente's second sets average 8.36 total games.
- Neither player has played more than one second-set tiebreak in this window.
- Aguilar Cardozo has won the second set 13 of 15 times, often by a clear margin.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A dominant favourite winning in straight sets usually finishes near or below 19 games on this surface.
- Aguilar Cardozo's tracked clay matches average 19.2 total games and 99.7 minutes.
- His set-one games average is 5.8 won to 2.87 lost; set two is 5.87 to 3.13.
- He won 12 of 15 matches in straight sets, often by wide margins.
- De La Fuente's set-two games average is 4.5 won to 3.86 lost.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 19.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Two-set finishes are the clear norm in both players' recent clay samples, and the ranking gap points the same way.
- 25 of the 29 combined tracked clay matches finished in two sets.
- Aguilar Cardozo has won 12 of 15 matches 2-0.
- De La Fuente has been involved in 12 straight-set matches out of 14.
- Both players average roughly 2.1 sets per completed clay match.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Aguilar Cardozo has started almost every recent match on the front foot and rarely gives the opening set away.
- Aguilar Cardozo has won the first set in 13 of 15 clay matches.
- His first-set game average is 5.8 won to 2.87 lost.
- De La Fuente has lost the opening set 4 times in 14 clay matches.
- Aguilar Cardozo has saved 62% of break points in this window.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJoaquin Aguilar CardozoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Aguilar Cardozo's second-set record matches his first-set dominance, so he is likely to hold the edge again.
- Aguilar Cardozo has won the second set in 13 of 15 clay matches.
- His second-set game average is 5.87 won to 3.13 lost.
- De La Fuente has lost the second set 6 times in 14 clay matches.
- Aguilar Cardozo converts 53.7% of his break points on clay.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostJoaquin Aguilar CardozoEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Aguilar Cardozo wins most of his clay matches without dropping a set and is a clear favourite on ranking and form.
- Aguilar Cardozo has won 12 of 15 clay matches 2-0.
- He has won the first set 13 of 15 times and the second set 13 of 15 times.
- His only loss in the window was 0-2, so he has not often been taken to a decider.
- De La Fuente has lost 0-2 in four of his last 14 clay matches.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostJoaquin Aguilar Cardozo 2-0Estimated chance68%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player reaches 6-6 often, and the ranking gap points to sets decided by wider margins.
- Only 5 tiebreaks occurred across the 29 combined tracked clay matches.
- Aguilar Cardozo has won 65.3% of his clay games, limiting 6-6 sets.
- He has played just one second-set tiebreak in 15 matches.
- De La Fuente's two first-set tiebreaks are the main source of tiebreak risk here.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance80%

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

14W 1L

6-4 6-3#220Alex Barrena

6-2 6-4#193Juan Pablo Varillas

7-5 6-7(5) 6-4#123Francisco Comesana

6-2 6-1#347Carlos Maria Zarate

6-1 6-2—Mateo Del Pino

6-4 7-5—Federico Aguilar Cardozo

6-2 6-2#347Carlos Maria Zarate

4-6 6-4 7-6(2)#329Gonzalo Villanueva

6-1 6-3#842Lorenzo Gagliardo

6-4 6-2—Federico Aguilar Cardozo

6-2 6-2—Joao Vitor Scramin Do Lago

6-3 6-1#329Gonzalo Villanueva

6-3 6-3#887Maxwell Exsted

6-1 6-1#757Rodrigo Alujas

6-1 6-4—Nathan Cox

Santiago De La Fuente

9W 6L

2-6 6-2 7-6(5)#526Pedro Sakamoto

7-6(5) 6-3#1576Boris Arias

7-5 6-1#860Matias Franco Descotte

7-6(3) 6-4#329Gonzalo Villanueva

6-3 6-2—Tomas Jordi Leston

6-4 6-0—Tobia Grandinetti

6-2 6-3#887Maxwell Exsted

6-2 6-3—Mateo Del Pino

6-3 6-3—Corey Craig

6-3 6-4#329Gonzalo Villanueva

6-2 1-6 6-3—Dakotah Bobo

6-2 6-4#842Lorenzo Gagliardo

6-2 6-2—Alvaro Frutos Alonso

6-3 4-2 ret.#878Fermin Tenti

6-3 6-1—Maximo Ayrton Almada

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JCJoaquin Aguilar CardozoCardozo

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Santiago De La FuenteFuenteSF

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo carries the stronger recent form — Santiago De La Fuente's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In13/15 · 15/1568.6%+4.1pp64.5%

1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/1566.7%+5.2pp61.5%

2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/1552.9%+2.1pp50.8%

Aces / Match13/15 · 15/150.8+0.31.1

Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/152.10.5 fewer1.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/1550.3%+2.6pp47.7%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/1553.7%+5.7pp48.0%

Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/1562.0%+2.6pp59.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/1556.2%+3.6pp52.6%

Serve · 3–2

68.6%1st Serve In13/15 · 15/15+4.1pp64.5%

66.7%1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+5.2pp61.5%

52.9%2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+2.1pp50.8%

0.8Aces / Match13/15 · 15/15+0.31.1

2.1Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/150.5 fewer1.6

Return · 1–0

50.3%Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+2.6pp47.7%

Pressure · 2–0

53.7%Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/15+5.7pp48.0%

62.0%Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/15+2.6pp59.4%

Points · 1–0

56.2%Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+3.6pp52.6%