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Predictions graded

Guilherme ValdoleirosPortugal0Vladyslav Orlov #501Ukraine2

Sets 1-6 · 1-6Sun 4 Oct 2026, 09:05 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions7–278%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Guilherme Valdoleiros

Portugal

Public player-profile information is limited; he is listed as 27 for this Porto qualifying match.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Vladyslav Orlov

Ukraine

Ranked No. 502. Fourteen of his last 15 completed matches were played on clay, where he went 10-4, and his only hard-court match in that stretch was a three-set loss on 9 September. He was named in Ukraine's Davis Cup doubles pair for the September World Group II tie against Cyprus.

Current ranking: #501
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 08:59 · Europe/Bucharest

The clay record points one way: Orlov is 9-3 with six 2-0 wins and 11-1 in clay second sets, against an unranked opponent with only three clay matches.

His first sets are even at 6-6 and both samples are small, so a longer match is possible. The reviewed prices — Orlov at 1.01, the second set at 1.05, 2-0 at 1.12 — all ask more certainty than that record gives. None is worth backing.

Context

Orlov's second-set record on clay is the strongest single number in either player's file.
His even first-set record offers no edge, so a dropped or tight opening set does not appear to derail him; the second-set figures point to him closing quickly once ahead, and both tiebreaks in the sample came in second sets rather than the opener.
- 12 completed clay matches, 19 July–28 August 2026; one retirement excluded from the aggregate.
- First sets: 6-6, averaging 4.0 games won to 4.67 lost.
- Second sets: 11-1, averaging 6.25 games won to 4.17 lost, with both sample tiebreaks in second sets.
- Total games average 22.3 per match; 7 of the 12 matches finished in straight sets.
The match opens Centre Court at 09:00 . That gives the fixture a defined start-time and court setting within qualifying. No court-condition detail accompanies the schedule.
- The order of play lists Valdoleiros–Orlov first on Centre Court at 09:00.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 08:57 · Europe/BucharestTennisTemple match listingen.tennistemple.com · 4 Oct 2026
Valdoleiros has been playing his recent tennis on hard courts, so this clay sample is both small and dated.
Three completed clay matches from six weeks earlier, with no tiebreaks and an average of 15.7 total games, give little to judge his level on the surface. His more recent September results came on hard courts, so they do not automatically translate into how he will look here.
- Three completed clay matches, 26 July–29 August 2026: one win, two losses.
- All three finished in straight sets — one 2-0 win, two 0-2 losses — with no tiebreaks in the sample.
- Average 15.7 total games per match; 19 of 47 games won (40.4%).
Orlov's latest completed match, on 27 September 2026, ended in straight sets on hard court.
It does not alter the clay record from July and August, but it is the freshest evidence on him and it was a loss. With no serve or return metrics in the brief, that recent hard-court form is the only current check on the clay numbers.
- 27 September 2026, hard court: lost 6-7 2-6 to Michael Geerts (ranked 344), winning 8 games to 13.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Vladyslav Orlov

1.05fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 95.2%

−15.2ppshort

Orlov's second-set record on clay is overwhelmingly strong, and he often takes control after the opener.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Vladyslav Orlov

1.01fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 99%

−21.0ppshort

Orlov has a much larger and stronger clay record, while Valdoleiros has little clay evidence and recent losses.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Vladyslav Orlov 2-0

1.12fair 2.08

BetBugs 48% · Market 89.3%

−41.3ppshort

Orlov's most common clay scoreline is 2-0, and Valdoleiros has often lost in straight sets.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.01
The read
Orlov has a much larger and stronger clay record, while Valdoleiros has little clay evidence and recent losses.
- Orlov is 9-3 on clay in the supplied 12-match sample, with six 2-0 wins.
- Valdoleiros is 1-2 on clay in three matches and lost his most recent completed match 0-2.
- Orlov is ranked 501; Valdoleiros has no ranking in the evidence.
- Orlov's clay set2 record is 11-1, showing strong response after the opening set.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonVladyslav OrlovEstimated chance78%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Orlov's second sets on clay tend to be longer than nine games, often with a break or tiebreak.
- Orlov's clay second sets average 10.4 total games.
- Orlov has two tiebreaks in 12 clay matches.
- Orlov's set2 average is 6.25 games won to 4.17 lost.
- Valdoleiros's clay second sets average 6.3 total games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Orlov's clay matches often last long enough to push the total past 19.5 games.
- Orlov's 12 clay matches average 22.3 total games.
- Orlov's clay matches include five three-set matches.
- Valdoleiros's three clay matches average 15.7 total games.
- Orlov's set2 on clay averages 10.4 total games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 19.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first-set averages fall below 9.5 games, so an under-9.5 finish is slightly more likely.
- Orlov's clay first sets average 8.7 total games.
- Valdoleiros's clay first sets average 9.3 total games.
- Neither player has a clay set1 tiebreak in the supplied evidence.
- Orlov's clay set1 games-won average is 4.0.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.05
The read
Orlov's second-set record on clay is overwhelmingly strong, and he often takes control after the opener.
- Orlov is 11-1 in second sets on clay.
- Orlov's clay set2 average is 6.25 games won to 4.17 lost.
- Valdoleiros is 1-2 in second sets on clay.
- Orlov has two tiebreaks in 12 clay matches, both in second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonVladyslav OrlovEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Orlov is the stronger clay player overall, but his first-set record is only even.
- Orlov is 6-6 in first sets across 12 clay matches.
- Valdoleiros is 1-2 in first sets across three clay matches.
- Orlov has won 9 of 12 clay matches overall.
- Orlov's clay set1 average is 4.0 games won to 4.7 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonVladyslav OrlovEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' clay records lean toward straight-set finishes, especially when Orlov wins the second set.
- Orlov has six 2-0 wins in 12 clay matches.
- Valdoleiros's three clay matches all ended 2-0 or 0-2.
- Orlov's clay set2 record is 11-1, often closing matches quickly.
- Seven of Orlov's 12 clay matches finished in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been uncommon in both players' clay evidence, so a clean finish is more likely.
- Orlov has two tiebreaks in 12 clay matches.
- Valdoleiros has no tiebreaks in three clay matches.
- Orlov's clay set1 games-won average is 4.0.
- Valdoleiros's clay set1 games-won average is 4.33.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance78%

Guilherme Valdoleiros

5W 10L

6-1 6-2#387Robin Bertrand

6-0 6-1—Daniil Tsebrenko

6-4 1-6 10-6#899Blu Baker

6-2 6-1—Joshua Leon-Nestler

6-1 6-2#362Patrick Schoen

7-5 6-2#724Jack Anthrop

6-2 6-0#418Niels Visker

6-2 7-6(6)—Pedro Liborio

7-5 6-0—Daniele Minighini

6-2 6-1—Rafael Amaral

6-1 6-4—Iker Urribarrens Ramirez

6-0 6-4—Daniel Marincas

6-4 6-0—Joel Malango Ondo

7-5 7-6(3)#690Sebastian Dominko

6-4 6-4#553Daniil Ostapenkov

Vladyslav Orlov

9W 6L

7-6(3) 6-2#344Michael Geerts

1-6 7-5 6-3—David Eichenseher

6-0 6-7(3) 6-1#506Nikita Mashtakov

6-4 6-4—Borys Zgola

6-2 6-3#893Dominik Kellovsky

2-1 ret.—David Wallechner

6-2 7-6(7)#575Marcel Zielinski

6-4 6-4#836Wojciech Marek

0-6 7-5 6-2#755Niklas Guttau

6-4 6-4—Jakub Kusy

6-2 4-6 6-3#619Alexander Weis

6-1 6-2#802Luca Castagnola

6-4 7-5#888Michele Mecarelli

3-6 6-3 6-1#867Tomohiro Masabayashi

5-7 6-3 6-2#382Max Wiskandt

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

GVGuilherme ValdoleirosValdoleiros

Last 15

1–7

9 core stats · 1 even

Vladyslav OrlovOrlovVO

Vladyslav Orlov carries the stronger recent form — Guilherme Valdoleiros's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In8/15 · 15/1564.7%+4.8pp59.9%

1st Serve Won8/15 · 15/1555.4%+9.0pp64.4%

2nd Serve Won8/15 · 15/1546.2%+4.2pp50.4%

Aces / Match8/15 · 15/150.8+1.52.3

Double Faults / Match8/15 · 15/152.50.8 fewer1.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won8/15 · 15/1535.2%+7.7pp42.9%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted8/15 · 15/1543.3%—43.7%

Break Pts Saved8/15 · 15/1548.3%+13.5pp61.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won8/15 · 15/1544.1%+6.7pp50.8%

Serve · 1–4

64.7%1st Serve In8/15 · 15/15+4.8pp59.9%

55.4%1st Serve Won8/15 · 15/15+9.0pp64.4%

46.2%2nd Serve Won8/15 · 15/15+4.2pp50.4%

0.8Aces / Match8/15 · 15/15+1.52.3

2.5Double Faults / Match8/15 · 15/150.8 fewer1.7

Return · 0–1

35.2%Return Pts Won8/15 · 15/15+7.7pp42.9%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

43.3%Break Pts Converted8/15 · 15/15—43.7%

48.3%Break Pts Saved8/15 · 15/15+13.5pp61.8%

Points · 0–1

44.1%Total Pts Won8/15 · 15/15+6.7pp50.8%