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Predictions graded

Gerard Campana Lee #585South Korea2Pietro Marino #898Italy0

Sets 6-1 · 7-5Sun 4 Oct 2026, 08:19 Predictions gradedGravel

Predictions1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageGerard Campana Lee · 313 places

Gerard Campana Lee

South Korea

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 318 on June 24, 2024. His professional schedule and results are predominantly on clay.

Current ranking: #585
Peak ranking: #318 · 2024
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Pietro Marino

Italy

Reached a career-high ATP ranking of No. 827 on February 26, 2024. His 2026 singles schedule has been predominantly on clay.

Current ranking: #898
Peak ranking: #827 · 2024
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 15:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Campana Lee brings a five-match clay winning run into a Palermo meeting with Marino, who sits 315 ranking places below him; a Campana Lee win is the likely outcome in this best-of-three.

Marino's 8-5 record over 13 tracked matches, and the absence of serve or return data for him, keep it from being straightforward, and with no price among the reviewed selections there is nothing to back at a quoted number.

Context

Campana Lee, ranked 515, won three of those five matches in straight sets, so the run did not depend on long deciding sets.
This is the strongest recent evidence behind the 515-ranked player going into a best-of-three on clay, and it lines up with his 12-3 record over 15 tracked matches. The counterpoint is the level of opposition across the run, which ranged from No. 210 down to No. 1149, and the fact that two of the five wins needed a third set.
- Beat Lorenzo Giustino, ranked 210, 6-3 7-5 on clay on 25 September 2026.
- Won five consecutive completed clay matches from 22 to 27 September 2026, three of them in straight sets.
Marino, ranked 830, has no serve, return or game-level metrics recorded, so his level has to be judged from scorelines alone.
The record shows a player who can win, with 8 victories in 13 tracked matches, but whose recent clay results have swung match to match. Both wins in this window, against opponents ranked 766 and 899, included a tiebreak, while the 30 September loss to Mikovic was a straight-sets defeat.
- Lost 3-6 3-6 to Mak Mikovic on clay on 30 September 2026.
- Six completed clay matches between 18 and 30 September 2026 produced two wins and four losses.
Campana Lee has since won five straight on clay, making that scoreline the outlier in the run of results.
It is the clearest evidence that a top-250 opponent can take games off him quickly, in contrast to a September run in which the opponents were ranked 530, 446, 210, 1149 and 808. Campana Lee is 12-3 over 15 tracked matches overall, so a single heavy loss sits inside a generally strong return.
- Lost 0-6 3-6 to Felix Gill, ranked 217, on clay on 16 September 2026.
- It is the only defeat among the six most recent completed matches on his record, dated 16 to 27 September 2026.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Campana Lee has the stronger ranking, fuller clay form and better overall point and game numbers, while Marino has no serve or return metrics available.
- Ranked 515 vs Marino 830; recent clay form 5-1 in last six completed matches.
- Last 15 tracked matches: 12-3, with 66.7% sets won and 55.4% games won.
- Serve/return metrics: 68.3% first-serve points won, 45.0% return points won, 52.2% total points won.
- Beat Lorenzo Giustino (#210) 2-0 on clay in the recent run.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGerard Campana LeeEstimated chance70%

Gerard Campana Lee

12W 3L

6-3 6-2#530Sander Jong

5-7 6-2 6-4#446Ivan Gakhov

6-3 7-5#210Lorenzo Giustino

6-3 2-6 6-3#1149Alejandro Garcia

6-4 6-7(4) 6-3#808Jeffrey Von Der Schulenburg

6-0 6-3#217Felix Gill

5-7 7-6(5) 6-4#376Carlos Taberner

6-2 7-5#426Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

6-3 6-1#634Gabriele Bosio

6-1 7-5#138Max Alcala Gurri

6-7(4) 6-3 6-4#337Jonas Forejtek

6-2 6-3#566Lorenzo Carboni

6-2 7-5#899Filip Pieczonka

6-3 6-4—Valentin Basel

3-6 6-2 6-1—Jiri Cizek

Pietro Marino

9W 6L

6-3 6-3—Mak Mikovic

1-6 6-3 6-1#396Eric Vanshelboim

6-4 7-5—Leonardo Primucci

6-3 6-4#665Daniele Rapagnetta

7-6(3) 6-4#766Alejandro Turriziani Alvarez

7-6(8) 7-6(5)#899Leonid Sheyngezikht

6-1 6-2—Pablo Perez Navarro

6-2 6-2—David Munoz Molina

6-4 6-2#758Gabriele Maria Noce

1-6 6-2 2-0 ret.—Jeremy Gschwendtner

6-1 6-0—Matei Marius Partal

6-1 4-2 ret.#880Mihai Razvan Marinescu

6-0 6-2#515Gerard Campana Lee

6-4 6-4—Valentin Basel

6-1 6-3#894Michael Zhu

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

GLGerard Campana LeeLee

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Pietro MarinoMarinoPM

Pietro Marino carries the stronger recent form — Gerard Campana Lee's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In59.2%+22.4pp81.6%

1st Serve Won68.3%+8.6pp59.7%

2nd Serve Won47.2%+1.2pp48.4%

Aces / Match2.7+2.20.5

Double Faults / Match1.90.8 fewer1.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won45.0%+2.9pp47.9%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted55.9%+14.6pp41.3%

Break Pts Saved52.5%—52.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won52.2%—52.6%

Serve · 2–3

59.2%1st Serve In+22.4pp81.6%

68.3%1st Serve Won+8.6pp59.7%

47.2%2nd Serve Won+1.2pp48.4%

2.7Aces / Match+2.20.5

1.9Double Faults / Match0.8 fewer1.1

Return · 0–1

45.0%Return Pts Won+2.9pp47.9%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

55.9%Break Pts Converted+14.6pp41.3%

52.5%Break Pts Saved—52.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

52.2%Total Pts Won—52.6%