ItalyPalermo - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Fabrizio Andaloro #522Italy0Matyas Cerny #721Czechia2

Sets 4-6 · 1-6Sun 4 Oct 2026, 15:49 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions4–544%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFabrizio Andaloro · 199 places

Fabrizio Andaloro

Italy

Italian right-hander who reached a career-high No. 288 in February 2026. Public profile sources identify hard courts as his preferred surface; no current injury or availability restriction was verified.

Current ranking: #522
Peak ranking: #288 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Matyas Cerny

Czechia

Czech right-hander, born 15 October 2001. Public results data shows most of his recorded professional matches have been on clay; a May 2026 walkover is not supported as an active August availability issue.

Current ranking: #721
Peak ranking: #653
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 15:35 · Europe/Bucharest

Opening qualifying round at the Palermo Challenger on clay: Andaloro is the higher-ranked player (523 to 719) but has only three recent clay matches, while Cerny is 7-7 in 14 since July.

Andaloro is the marginally more likely winner, and straight sets edge a decider. No priced selections came with this match, so there is no odds figure to judge.

Context

Cerny brings the larger clay sample into this qualifying round, with no fitness or availability news reported for either player.
Cerny's clay record is 7-7 across that 14-match run, and the split of scorelines (five 0-2 losses, four 2-0 wins, three 2-1 wins, two 1-2 losses) shows his matches are usually settled without a third set. Against Fabrizio Andaloro in a best-of-three qualifier, that leans toward a two-set finish rather than a decider. One retirement is excluded from the sample, and 14 matches is still a modest base.
- 2 July to 26 September 2026: 14 completed clay matches, record 7-7, scorelines 0-2 five times, 2-0 four times, 2-1 three times, 1-2 twice
- Nine of those 14 matches ended in straight sets; one retirement excluded from the sample
Andaloro is the higher-ranked player but carries the smaller surface sample, having played three clay matches in the past week.
First sets have gone reasonably — two of three won, with 5.0 games won against 5.33 lost — but the second sets have fallen away, including 1-6 and 2-6 losses. That matters in a best-of-three qualifier, where a strong opening set can still be undone. Three matches is a narrow observation rather than a settled habit.
- 27-29 September 2026: 3 clay matches, set 1 record 2-1 with 5.0 games won and 5.33 lost, one tiebreak
- Set 2 record 1-2 with 2.67 games won and 5.0 lost; average total games 21.0 across those matches
Andaloro's ranking edge comes with a mixed recent clay record that includes one heavy defeat to a higher-ranked opponent.
Clarke was the highest-ranked player in Andaloro's recent clay run, and the scoreline was one-sided in games as well as sets, 3-12. Cerny sits at 719, so the level Andaloro meets in this qualifying round is different from that match. It is a single result and cannot stand in for a trend.
- 29 September 2026: lost to Jay Clarke (ranked 236) 2-6 1-6 on clay, 3 games won to 12 lost

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Andaloro is higher-ranked and has a winning recent clay record, while Cerny is around .500 on the surface over a larger sample.
- Andaloro is ranked 523, Cerny 719
- Andaloro is 2-1 on clay in his last three matches; Cerny is 7-7 in 14
- Andaloro has a 49.8% total points won on clay
- Cerny's serve and return metrics are unavailable
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFabrizio AndaloroEstimated chance54%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Andaloro's second sets have consistently stayed under 9.5 games, and Cerny's average is only slightly above the line.
- Andaloro's three set2 totals on clay were 7, 7 and 9 games
- Andaloro's set2 average total is 7.67 games
- Cerny's set2 average total is 9.29 games
- Cerny has one set2 tiebreak in 14 clay matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cerny's long set1 sample stays under 9.5 games on average, and short first sets are common.
- Cerny's set1 average total is 8.57 games
- Cerny has no set1 tiebreaks in 14 clay matches
- Andaloro's set1 loss to Clarke totaled 8 games
- Andaloro's set1 average total is 10.33 games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent clay totals are close to the line, and straight-set matches often stay under 22 games.
- Cerny's 14 clay matches average 21.14 total games
- Andaloro's three clay matches average 21.0 total games
- Andaloro's two straight-set clay matches had 15 and 19 games
- Cerny has nine two-set matches in 14 clay matches
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes are the most common outcome in both players' recent clay records.
- Cerny has 9 two-set and 5 three-set matches in 14 clay matches
- Andaloro has 2 two-set and 1 three-set match in 3 clay matches
- Eleven of their combined 17 recent clay matches were straight sets
- Cerny's scorelines include five 0-2 losses and four 2-0 wins
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Andaloro has started well on clay and holds a small ranking edge, giving him a slight lead in the first set.
- Andaloro won set1 in 2 of 3 clay matches
- Cerny won set1 in 7 of 14 clay matches
- Andaloro's set1 game average is 5.0 won vs 5.33 lost
- Andaloro is the higher-ranked player
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostFabrizio AndaloroEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cerny has lost more second sets than he has won on clay, which gives Andaloro a slight chance despite his own small sample.
- Andaloro won set2 in 1 of 3 clay matches
- Cerny lost set2 in 8 of 14 clay matches
- Andaloro's set2 game average is 2.67 won vs 5.0 lost
- Cerny's set2 game average is 4.5 won vs 4.79 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostFabrizio AndaloroEstimated chance51%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been uncommon in both players' recent clay matches, making a tiebreak-free match more likely.
- Only 2 of 17 combined recent clay matches had a tiebreak
- Cerny had one tiebreak in 14 clay matches
- Andaloro had one tiebreak in 3 clay matches
- Cerny has no set1 tiebreaks in 14 clay matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance85%

Fabrizio Andaloro

8W 7L

6-2 6-1#236Jay Clarke

7-6(3) 1-6 6-3#864Filippo Moroni

6-4 6-3—Francesco Giuseppe Colasanto

6-4 6-4#554John Echeverria

6-7(2) 6-0 6-3#546Menelaos Efstathiou

6-2 6-1#874Andrea Colombo

6-0 6-2—Evan Galea

6-2 4-6 6-3#459Emile Hudd

6-3 7-6(4)#895Giulio Perego

7-5 6-1#643Tiago Cacao

6-3 6-4#652Goncalo Marques

6-1 4-6 6-4—Joao Dinis Silva

4-6 6-1 6-4—Pablo Perez Navarro

5-7 6-0 6-3—Rodrigo Fernandes

6-4 7-6(5)#596Joao Domingues

Matyas Cerny

8W 7L

6-4 6-2—Stepan Baum

6-4 6-4—David Petrofsky

6-0 4-6 6-4#494Filip Jeff Planinsek

6-3 6-2#391Johan Nikles

4-6 7-5 6-4#468Filip Misolic

6-1 6-4#282Daniel Michalski

6-4 6-7(9) 6-4#666Karol Filar

6-0 5-0 ret.—Milosz Sroka

6-2 6-3#319Radu Mihai Papoe

6-2 6-2#455Dusan Obradovic

6-1 4-6 6-2#349Norbert Gombos

1-6 6-3 6-2#884Ignacio Carou

6-4 6-2#802Luca Castagnola

6-4 6-2#638Pietro Orlando Fellin

6-2 6-1—Leonardo Angeloni

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FAFabrizio AndaloroAndaloro

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Matyas CernyCernyMC

Matyas Cerny carries the stronger recent form — Fabrizio Andaloro's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In56.1%+1.5pp57.6%

1st Serve Won61.9%+4.9pp66.8%

2nd Serve Won52.1%—51.7%

Aces / Match2.5+1.21.3

Double Faults / Match3.51.8 fewer1.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won42.9%+2.1pp40.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted44.4%+1.8pp42.6%

Break Pts Saved52.9%+3.6pp56.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.1%—50.5%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

56.1%1st Serve In+1.5pp57.6%

61.9%1st Serve Won+4.9pp66.8%

52.1%2nd Serve Won—51.7%

2.5Aces / Match+1.21.3

3.5Double Faults / Match1.8 fewer1.7

Return · 1–0

42.9%Return Pts Won+2.1pp40.8%

Pressure · 1–1

44.4%Break Pts Converted+1.8pp42.6%

52.9%Break Pts Saved+3.6pp56.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.1%Total Pts Won—50.5%