ChinaWuning - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Blake BayldonAustralia2Taisei Ichikawa #781Japan0

Sets 7-6 · 6-4Sun 4 Oct 2026, 07:00 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions2–722%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Blake Bayldon

Australia

Australian left-hander listed at 183 cm and coached by Adam Feeney. He won the Guangzhou Challenger doubles title in September 2026, and no singles ranking is listed for him in the structured match data.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Taisei Ichikawa

Japan

Left-handed player with a documented career-high ranking of No. 287 in November 2025. The requested sources did not establish a reliable preferred-surface claim or a current injury/decline narrative.

Current ranking: #781
Peak ranking: #287 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 15:06 · Europe/Bucharest

A first qualifying-round match at the Wuning Challenger pits Taisei Ichikawa, ranked 760, against the unranked Blake Bayldon, and the hard-court numbers lean one way: Ichikawa wins 51.6% of points to Bayldon's 47.5% and returns far better.

Ichikawa is the likely winner. At 5.25 he is the one price here worth taking; straight sets at 1.20, under 23.5 games at 1.38 and Bayldon at 1.12 are not.

Context

Ichikawa's hard-court sample splits sharply between how he starts matches and how he finishes them.
The edge in this sample sits in the opening set, where Ichikawa averages 4.9 games won to 4.0 lost; the second set is level at 4.25 games to 4.0. Only two of the 12 matches reached a tiebreak, both in a first set, so these sets have usually been settled before 6-6 rather than at it.
- 12 completed hard-court matches tracked between 11 August 2026 and 2 October 2026
- First sets: 8 won and 4 lost, averaging 4.92 games won and 4.00 lost
- Second sets: 6 won and 6 lost, averaging 4.25 games won and 4.00 lost
- Scorelines: six 2-0 wins, four 0-2 losses, two 1-2 losses; two matches contained a tiebreak
Bayldon's serve is the strongest single number on either side of this hard-court evidence.
That serve gives him a way to hold and keep sets close, which matters against an opponent whose main advantage is returning. The same six-match sample shows a return game that rarely breaks, and he has won 47.2% of hard-court games overall, so one loose service game can swing a set his way or against him.
- Six hard-court matches tracked: 2 wins and 4 losses
- 74% of first-serve points won (151 of 204) and 5.0 aces per match (30 in 6)
- 31.1% of return points won (97 of 312) and 47.2% of games won (50 of 106)
- 55.6% of break points saved (15 of 27)
Bayldon's hard-court record is old and short, but its shape is unusually consistent.
Two of the six were straight-set wins and four were straight-set losses, and none contained a tiebreak, which is the pattern behind any expectation of a quick match. The caveats are real: six matches is a small sample, the most recent is from October 2025, and Ichikawa's more recent 12-match sample contains two three-setters.
- Six completed hard-court matches tracked between 13 October 2024 and 19 October 2025
- Scorelines: two 2-0 wins and four 0-2 losses, no three-setters
- Average 17.7 total games per match (first sets 9.33, second sets 8.33)
- No tiebreaks in the six matches
The most recent completed match in the record was a three-set loss two days before this qualifier.
It shows the quick, straight-set pattern is not automatic: Ichikawa lost only 13 games in the match but still went out. As a single match it is a caution rather than a trend, and it says nothing about his fitness for this fixture.
- Match dated 2 October 2026 against Nino Ehrenschneider, ranked 561
- Sets: 6-1, 2-6, 2-6; 10 games won, 13 lost
- Not a retirement; completed three-set loss

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.20fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 83.3%

−13.3ppshort

The straight-set pattern holds across both players' hard-court records.

Total GameswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 23.5

1.38fair 1.52

BetBugs 66% · Market 72.5%

−6.5ppshort

The average match for both players falls well short of 24 games.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 5.25
The read
Ichikawa's better returning and point totals should give him more break chances, while Bayldon's weak return game limits his own.
- Ichikawa is ranked 760 and 8-7 on hard in the tracked window; Bayldon is unranked and 2-4 on hard
- Hard-court points won: Ichikawa 51.6%, Bayldon 47.5%
- Return points won on hard: Ichikawa 44.3%, Bayldon 31.1%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTaisei IchikawaEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
The average match for both players falls well short of 24 games.
- Ichikawa's hard matches average 18.5 games
- Bayldon's hard matches average 17.7 games
- Combined tracked hard matches average about 18 games
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 23.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ichikawa's wins in this sample come by clear margins, so he covers this small handicap whenever he wins.
- Ichikawa's hard-court game margins in recent matches: +9, +6, +8 in wins; -3, -5, -5 in losses
- Ichikawa is 8-7 on hard in the tracked window
- Bayldon won 47.2% of hard-court games
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostTaisei Ichikawa +1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined first-set average sits below the 9.5 line for both players.
- Ichikawa's hard-court first sets average 8.9 games
- Bayldon's hard-court first sets average 9.3 games
- Combined average is about 9.1 games per first set
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
The straight-set pattern holds across both players' hard-court records.
- 16 of the 18 combined tracked hard matches ended in straight sets
- Ichikawa's average hard match lasted 2.17 sets
- Bayldon's average hard match lasted 2 sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ichikawa starts strongly in this sample while Bayldon has lost the opening set in four of six hard matches.
- Ichikawa has won set 1 in 8 of 12 hard matches
- Bayldon has won set 1 in 2 of 6 hard matches
- Ichikawa averages 4.92 games won and 4.0 lost in hard-court first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostTaisei IchikawaEstimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ichikawa holds a modest edge in second sets, though his record there is far closer than in first sets.
- Ichikawa's hard-court set2 record is 6-6
- Bayldon's hard-court set2 record is 2-4
- Ichikawa averages 4.25 games won and 4.0 lost in hard-court second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostTaisei IchikawaEstimated chance56%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The tracked hard-court sets for both players have almost always been decided before a tiebreak.
- 2 tiebreaks in 24 Ichikawa hard sets and 0 in 12 Bayldon hard sets
- Only 2 of 18 combined tracked hard matches contained a tiebreak
- Sets rarely reach 6-6 in this sample
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' double-fault averages leave room under the line.
- Bayldon 3.2 and Ichikawa 1.9 double faults per hard match
- Bayldon's hard-court count is 19 in 6 matches, Ichikawa's 25 in 13
- Combined average is about 5.1 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The two players' combined ace rate falls under the line in their tracked hard matches.
- Bayldon averages 5.0 aces per hard match (30 in 6)
- Ichikawa averages 2.7 aces per match (35 in 13)
- Combined average is around 7.7 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance58%

Blake Bayldon

6W 9L

6-3 6-1#289Sergey Fomin

6-4 6-4#897James Watt

6-4 3-6 7-5#709Tristan Mccormick

6-4 6-2#140Jurij Rodionov

6-3 6-2—Thijmen Loof

6-2 6-1—Gillian Osmont

6-4 6-4#850Wishaya Trongcharoenchaikul

6-2 6-4#631Carlos Lopez Montagud

3-6 6-2 6-1#811Lucas Bouquet

6-3 6-7(5) 6-3—Isaac Lhomond

6-3 6-4#456Blake Ellis

7-5 6-3—Nikita Volonski

6-3 6-4—Jera Staley

7-6(7) 7-6(3)—Benjamin O'Connell

6-4 6-2#831Joshua Charlton

Taisei Ichikawa

8W 7L

1-6 6-2 6-2#561Nino Ehrenschneider

6-2 6-1—Yuquan Jin

7-6(2) 6-1#1862Anthony Susanto

7-5 6-3#656Timofei Derepasko

6-2 6-2—Nikita Ianin

6-7(8) 7-5 6-2—Benjamin O'Connell

6-4 6-1—Noritaka Koizumi

6-0 6-1#686Ryuki Matsuda

6-1 7-5#890Jerry Roddick

4-6 7-6(3) 10-5#869Hiromasa Koyama

7-6(9) 2-6 10-8—Tin Chen

6-2 6-0#358Tung-Lin Wu

2-6 6-3 10-4#874Yeongseok Jeong

6-1 6-1—Kai-An Wu

6-2 6-3#281Petr Bar Biryukov

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

BBBlake BayldonBayldon

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Taisei IchikawaIchikawaTI

Taisei Ichikawa carries the stronger recent form — Blake Bayldon's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In13/15 · 13/1561.2%—61.8%

1st Serve Won13/15 · 13/1575.5%+11.3pp64.2%

2nd Serve Won13/15 · 13/1545.8%+4.4pp50.2%

Aces / Match13/15 · 13/155.7+3.02.7

Double Faults / Match13/15 · 13/154.12.2 fewer1.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won13/15 · 13/1532.0%+12.3pp44.3%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted13/15 · 13/1532.2%+15.6pp47.8%

Break Pts Saved13/15 · 13/1555.2%+1.8pp57.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won13/15 · 13/1548.4%+3.2pp51.6%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

61.2%1st Serve In13/15 · 13/15—61.8%

75.5%1st Serve Won13/15 · 13/15+11.3pp64.2%

45.8%2nd Serve Won13/15 · 13/15+4.4pp50.2%

5.7Aces / Match13/15 · 13/15+3.02.7

4.1Double Faults / Match13/15 · 13/152.2 fewer1.9

Return · 0–1

32.0%Return Pts Won13/15 · 13/15+12.3pp44.3%

Pressure · 0–2

32.2%Break Pts Converted13/15 · 13/15+15.6pp47.8%

55.2%Break Pts Saved13/15 · 13/15+1.8pp57.0%

Points · 0–1

48.4%Total Pts Won13/15 · 13/15+3.2pp51.6%