TürkiyeWTA SamsunFinished

Predictions graded

Anastasia Tikhonova #262Russia0Mariia Tkacheva #663Russia2

Sets 2-6 · 2-6Sun 4 Oct 2026, 10:35 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions5–456%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAnastasia Tikhonova · 401 places

Anastasia Tikhonova

Russia

Right-hander whose career-high singles ranking is No. 151, reached in January 2024. Official player data lists hard courts as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #262
Peak ranking: #151 · 2024
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Mariia Tkacheva

Russia

Ranked No. 663 in singles and has played almost exclusively on hard courts in her recent record. No reliable public information on her age, career-high ranking, handedness, height or preferred surface was found, so the form section is the main context.

Current ranking: #663
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Oct 2026, 22:12 · Europe/Bucharest

A Samsun qualifying opener pairs No.

256 Tikhonova with No. 663 Tkacheva, who has landed a higher share of first serves and won more return points than her opponent on hard courts. Tikhonova is the likelier winner, most probably in straight sets, but neither reviewed match-winner price — 1.6 for Tikhonova, 2.3 for Tkacheva — offers anything worth taking.

Context

Tikhonova, No. 256, arrives having just tested herself against a top-100 opponent in Turkey.
That 29 September match is the strongest recent form line for Tikhonova: she stayed with a top-100 opponent for three sets and won 15 games to 16, though she lost the match after dropping the second-set tiebreak. It shows the kind of level she has been facing, which Tkacheva's recent opponents do not match.
- Tikhonova faced Simona Waltert, then ranked No. 98, in Adana on 29 September 2026
- She won the first set 6-3, lost the second in a tiebreak and lost the third 3-6
- She won 15 games to Waltert's 16 across the match
The 1 October quarterfinal means Tikhonova was still competing in Adana three days before this fixture, after playing Adana qualifying and a main-draw singles match there. The trip from Adana to Samsun crosses much of Turkey, so she arrives with match rhythm but no rest week since mid-September. Tkacheva's most recent recorded singles match was 16 September, more than two weeks earlier. The contrast is the useful part: Tikhonova carries the heavier recent workload into the opening day of Samsun qualifying.
- Tikhonova partnered Elena Pridankina in the Adana Open doubles
- The pair reached the quarterfinals and were scheduled to face Ayla Aksu Kahraman and Aysegul Mert on 1 October 2026
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 22:10 · Europe/Bucharest
The sequence put Tikhonova on both sides of the qualifying cut within three days at a WTA 250 event. It is the clearest recent illustration of her competing week to week at WTA 250 and 125 level while ranked outside the top 250. The first-round scoreline against Quevedo was one-sided, so the late entry did not translate into a competitive match. It does not carry directly into a 125-level qualifying round, but it shows how she has been getting into main draws.
- Whitney Osuigwe beat Tikhonova in Sao Paulo qualifying
- Osuigwe withdrew through illness and Tikhonova took her place in the main draw as a lucky loser
- Kaitlin Quevedo beat Tikhonova in the first round 6-0, 6-2
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 22:10 · Europe/Bucharest
Tkacheva, ranked No. 663, has generally started her hard-court matches less securely than she has finished them.
Tkacheva has done her better work in second sets, so a fast Tikhonova start would not settle the match. The same 15-match sample contains only one tiebreak, which suggests these sets tend to be decided before a shootout, and her second sets average 8.07 games.
- Tkacheva's 15 hard-court matches between 27 January and 16 September 2026 include 10 second-set wins and five second-set losses
- Her first-set record in the same sample is 8-7
- The sample contains one tiebreak across those 15 matches
- Her second sets average 4.6 games won to 3.47 lost, a total of 8.07 games

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Anastasia Tikhonova

1.60fair 1.64

BetBugs 61% · Market 62.5%

−1.5ppshort

Tikhonova has faced stronger opponents recently and is ranked much higher, while Tkacheva has struggled against lower-ranked players.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Tikhonova has faced stronger opponents recently and is ranked much higher, while Tkacheva has struggled against lower-ranked players.
- Tikhonova is ranked 256, Tkacheva 663.
- Tikhonova is 5-5 on hard courts in her last 10 completed matches; Tkacheva is 7-8 on hard in 15.
- Tikhonova took a set from world No. 98 Simona Waltert on 29 September.
- Tkacheva's recent hard-court losses include defeats to opponents ranked 410, 565 and 561.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAnastasia TikhonovaEstimated chance61%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The average second-set length for both players is comfortably below 9.5 games.
- Tikhonova's second-set average total is 8.9 games.
- Tkacheva's second-set average total is 8.07 games.
- Combined second-set average is about 8.5 games.
- Second-set tiebreaks are rare in the sample.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first-set game averages for both players sit below the 9.5 threshold.
- Tikhonova's first-set games won/lost averages are 4.8 and 4.4.
- Tkacheva's first-set games won/lost averages are 4.53 and 4.07.
- Combined first-set total average is about 8.9 games.
- Only 3 of 25 combined hard matches had a first-set tiebreak.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Straight-set outcomes are more common in the samples, which slightly favors the under.
- Tikhonova's 10 hard-court matches average 20.9 games.
- Tkacheva's 15 hard-court matches average 20.07 games.
- 64% of combined hard-court matches were straight sets.
- Tkacheva's second-set average total is 8.07 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 20.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set outcomes are the more common result for both players in the supplied hard-court data.
- 64% of combined hard-court matches finished in straight sets.
- Tikhonova's last three wins were all in straight sets.
- Tkacheva's last three wins were all in straight sets.
- Combined scorelines: 16 straight-set results from 25 hard matches.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tikhonova's strong first-set record and ranking advantage give her the better chance to start ahead.
- Tikhonova has won the first set in 7 of 10 hard-court matches.
- Tkacheva has won the first set in 8 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Tikhonova is the higher-ranked player at No. 256.
- Tikhonova's first-set average is 4.8 games won to 4.4 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAnastasia TikhonovaEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tikhonova's higher ranking and match advantage give her a slight lead for the second set despite Tkacheva's strong second-set record.
- Tikhonova has won the second set in 4 of 10 hard-court matches.
- Tkacheva has won the second set in 10 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Tikhonova's overall match-win chance is rated higher.
- Tkacheva's second-set average is 4.6 games won to 3.47 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostAnastasia TikhonovaEstimated chance53%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most recent hard-court matches for both players have finished without a tiebreak.
- Tikhonova's hard-court tiebreak rate is 3 in 10 matches.
- Tkacheva's hard-court tiebreak rate is 1 in 15 matches.
- Combined, 21 of 25 hard matches had no tiebreak.
- Both players average fewer than one tiebreak per match.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tikhonova's high double-fault rate lifts the combined average above the 8.5 threshold.
- Tikhonova averages 6.1 double faults per hard-court match.
- Tkacheva averages 2.7 double faults per hard-court match.
- Combined average is 8.8 double faults per match.
- Tikhonova has a 47.2% first-serve-in rate on hard.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace average sits just below the 6.5 threshold.
- Tikhonova averages 3.8 aces per hard match.
- Tkacheva averages 2.6 aces per hard match.
- Combined average is 6.4, slightly under 6.5.
- Tkacheva's first-serve-in rate is 60.6% but she averages under three aces.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance52%

Anastasia Tikhonova

7W 8L

3-6 7-6(4) 6-3#98Simona Waltert

6-1 6-2#211Viktoria Hruncakova

7-6(3) 6-2#867Aysegul Mert

6-2 6-4#188Anastasia Gasanova

6-0 6-2#78Kaitlin Quevedo

6-2 6-2#241Whitney Osuigwe

6-2 6-1#444Maria Florencia Urrutia

6-7(5) 6-1 6-1#165Elsa Jacquemot

6-4 6-4#157Nao Hibino

6-4 4-6 7-5#124Darja Semenistaja

6-3 6-2#301Nastasja Mariana Schunk

6-4 6-0#239Ane Mintegi Del Olmo

6-3 6-0#552Ruth Roura Llaverias

6-4 6-1#323Jessica Pieri

6-2 7-5#785Lola Giza

Mariia Tkacheva

7W 8L

1-6 7-5 6-2#410Elena Milovanovic

4-6 6-1 6-2#565Yasmin Ezzat

6-2 6-4#783Maria Herazo

6-2 6-1—Sofia Martianova

7-6(2) 3-6 6-1#561Dune Vaissaud

6-4 6-1—Katarina Kujovic

2-6 6-3 6-3—Andrea Lola Popovic

6-1 6-1—Soha Sadiq

6-3 6-0#696Asylzhan Arystanbekova

6-2 6-0—Aleksandra Khomitskaya

6-4 3-6 6-4#110Anastasia Zakharova

6-1 6-1#34Nikola Bartunkova

6-3 3-6 6-3#559Shilin Xu

6-1 6-2#40Donna Vekic

6-2 6-2#254Sara Saito

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ATAnastasia TikhonovaTikhonova

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Mariia TkachevaTkachevaMT

Mariia Tkacheva carries the stronger recent form — Anastasia Tikhonova's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In48.6%+12.0pp60.6%

1st Serve Won66.8%+4.5pp62.3%

2nd Serve Won47.5%+3.2pp50.7%

Aces / Match3.9+1.32.6

Double Faults / Match5.32.6 fewer2.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won42.3%+2.2pp44.5%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted50.0%+1.3pp48.7%

Break Pts Saved51.9%+7.6pp44.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.7%+1.2pp50.9%

Serve · 2–3

48.6%1st Serve In+12.0pp60.6%

66.8%1st Serve Won+4.5pp62.3%

47.5%2nd Serve Won+3.2pp50.7%

3.9Aces / Match+1.32.6

5.3Double Faults / Match2.6 fewer2.7

Return · 0–1

42.3%Return Pts Won+2.2pp44.5%

Pressure · 2–0

50.0%Break Pts Converted+1.3pp48.7%

51.9%Break Pts Saved+7.6pp44.3%

Points · 0–1

49.7%Total Pts Won+1.2pp50.9%