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Predictions graded

Raphael Perot #297France1Daniil Ostapenkov #553Belarus2

Sets 6-1 · 3-6 · 4-6Tue 29 Sept 2026, 14:06 Predictions gradedIndoor

Predictions0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRaphael Perot · 256 places

Raphael Perot

France

French player born 30 June 2001. Reliable public sources identify a career-best ranking of No. 365 in March 2026; no clearly sourced preferred-surface statement was found.

Current ranking: #297
Peak ranking: #365 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Daniil Ostapenkov

Belarus

Listed at No. 556 in the supplied player data and plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand. Reliable public age and career-high details were not available from the required research.

Current ranking: #553
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Sep 2026, 18:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Perot is the higher-ranked player with the stronger 15-match record, but his last completed match was a 1-6, 0-6 defeat, while Ostapenkov arrives off a straight-sets win over a higher-ranked opponent.

The lean is to Perot, and it is a low-confidence one, so it stands as a sporting opinion rather than a betting angle. No quoted price was put up for review, so there is nothing here to call value.

Context

Perot's wider sample is strong — 58.8% of games won across 15 tracked matches — which makes the Bertrand score stand apart from the rest of it.
Perot holds the better recent record in this pairing, but the newest entry in that record is a heavy straight-sets loss, which is the clearest risk attached to his form line going into this match.
- 10 September 2026: Perot lost 1-6, 0-6 to Robin Bertrand (ranked 387) on hard in his most recent completed match.
- Perot's last-15 record is 11-4, with 58.8% of games won (171 of 291) across 15 tracked matches.
Ostapenkov's supplied last-15 sample is 8-6 across 14 tracked matches, and no serve or return metrics are recorded for him.
Ostapenkov is the lower-ranked player with an incomplete statistical profile, so this straight-sets win carrying a tiebreak is the most concrete recent evidence for him; a single match does not establish a trend.
- 28 September 2026: Ostapenkov beat Quinn Vandecasteele (ranked 469) 6-2, 7-6 on indoor hard in his most recent completed match.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Perot is the higher-ranked player with stronger recent overall results and better measured serving and returning.
- Perot is ranked 297, while Ostapenkov is ranked 553.
- Perot is 11-4 in his last 15 completed matches.
- Perot won 58.8% of games and 52.9% of total points in that span.
- Ostapenkov has no serve or return metrics in the supplied data.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostRaphael PerotEstimated chance63%

Previous match context available

Raphael Perot

11W 4L

6-1 6-0#387Robin Bertrand

6-4 6-2#169Gauthier Onclin

4-6 6-2 6-3#387Robin Bertrand

7-6(3) 6-2#763Alex Knaff

6-2 7-5#882Alexandre Reco

4-6 6-1 6-2—Liam Branger

6-1 6-2#851Julio Cesar Porras

6-3 6-4#256Mika Brunold

7-5 6-3#264Dominic Stricker

6-1 6-1—Lars Goran Verwerft

6-2 6-4#332Gilles Arnaud Bailly

6-2 4-6 6-4#488Jack Loge

6-2 6-3#780Abel Forger

6-0 6-1—Bjorn Schoemacher

7-5 6-4#510Patrick Zahraj

Daniil Ostapenkov

8W 7L

6-2 7-6(3)#469Quinn Vandecasteele 7-6(4) 6-1—Ilija Palavestra 6-3 6-1#355Timo Legout 7-5 4-6 6-3#469Quinn Vandecasteele

6-3 6-4#355Timo Legout

6-2 6-2—Gus Grumet

3-1 ret.#885Egor Agafonov

6-7(4) 7-6(6) 6-1#298Florent Bax

3-6 6-3 7-6(1)#450Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

7-6(6) 6-3#475Koki Matsuda

7-6(3) 6-1#679Yurii Dzhavakian

6-2 6-4#359Tiago Torres

6-4 6-3#394Lui Maxted

6-3 7-5—Rohan Mehra

6-3 3-6 6-3#290Carl Emil Overbeck

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

RPRaphael PerotPerot

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Daniil OstapenkovOstapenkovDO

Raphael Perot carries the stronger recent form — Daniil Ostapenkov's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In62.8%+4.9pp57.9%

1st Serve Won64.2%+6.4pp70.6%

2nd Serve Won52.3%+1.6pp53.9%

Aces / Match1.3+4.65.9

Double Faults / Match1.91.3 fewer3.2

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won46.5%+8.9pp37.6%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted50.0%+7.1pp42.9%

Break Pts Saved55.7%+2.5pp53.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.9%+2.3pp50.6%

Serve · 2–3

62.8%1st Serve In+4.9pp57.9%

64.2%1st Serve Won+6.4pp70.6%

52.3%2nd Serve Won+1.6pp53.9%

1.3Aces / Match+4.65.9

1.9Double Faults / Match1.3 fewer3.2

Return · 1–0

46.5%Return Pts Won+8.9pp37.6%

Pressure · 2–0

50.0%Break Pts Converted+7.1pp42.9%

55.7%Break Pts Saved+2.5pp53.2%

Points · 1–0

52.9%Total Pts Won+2.3pp50.6%