ChinaWTA JingshanFinished

Predictions graded

Amelia Rajecki #392United Kingdom1Yuhan Wang #733China2

Sets 4-6 · 6-3 · 6-7Tue 29 Sept 2026, 10:06 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions2–820%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAmelia Rajecki · 341 places

Amelia Rajecki

United Kingdom

British player ranked No. 392 in the WTA list used for this match, down from No. 382 in late August 2026. She was the fifth seed in singles at the W35 Kyoto event in September 2026 and won doubles titles at W50 Leiria with Madelaine Brooks and W35 Kyoto with Abe.

Current ranking: #392
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Yuhan Wang

China

Chinese player listed at No. 733 in the current rankings. Her tracked 2026 results come on hard courts, including the September indoor hard events in China.

Current ranking: #733
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Sep 2026, 03:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Rajecki arrives at No. 393 having won two qualifying matches; Wang, a home wildcard at No. 744, has won 11 of 13 first sets on hard and eight of her 13 completed hard-court matches in straight sets.

Rajecki is the likelier winner, probably in two sets, but none of the reviewed prices — Rajecki 1.8 to win, 1.8 to take the first set, the match to finish in two sets at 1.5, Wang at 2.0 — is worth taking.

Context

Rajecki needed two qualifying wins, including a three-set match against Hiroko Kuwata, to reach this main draw, so she carries five sets of qualifying singles plus doubles matches at the venue into the first round while her opponent enters directly as a wildcard. The straight-sets win over sixth-seeded Chengyiyi Yuan is the most substantive singles result of her Jingshan run. Qualifying form at this level is a limited guide to main-draw opposition, so the route mainly signals match sharpness and workload rather than a change in level.
- Rajecki beat Hiroko Kuwata 6-1 1-6 6-1 in the penultimate qualifying round
- Rajecki beat sixth seed Chengyiyi Yuan 6-3 7-5 in the final qualifying round to qualify for the main draw
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Sep 2026, 03:10 · Europe/Bucharest
Wang has been a fast starter on hard courts from early August into late September, and the opening set is where her recent record is strongest.
Rajecki has won seven of nine first sets in her own hard-court sample, so both players have started well, and the opening set carries extra weight because Wang's hard-court matches average only 2.23 sets. Wang's 11-of-13 figure comes from a 13-match window with one retirement excluded, so it is a small sample rather than a settled pattern.
- Wang won 11 of 13 first sets across 13 completed hard-court matches from 5 August to 27 September 2026, averaging 5.6 games won and 2.5 lost per opening set.
- One retired match is excluded from that 13-match sample.
- Only one of the 13 matches contained a first-set tiebreak.
Rajecki's hard-court matches have tended to run long, with a deciding set coming about as often as a straight-sets result.
Rajecki is more likely than Wang to be dragged into a third set, and her 2-1 and 1-2 split shows she wins and loses those deciding sets in equal measure. A match she is favoured to win can still run long, which is worth holding against any read that assumes a quick two-set finish. The window is nine matches.
- Rajecki's nine completed hard-court matches from 14 July to 26 September 2026 averaged 23.1 games and 2.44 sets.
- Four of the nine went to a deciding set: two 2-1 wins and two 1-2 losses.
- Three of the nine matches featured a tiebreak.
This is the opening round of the main draw at a WTA 125 event, so neither player carries a completed main-draw match at this tournament. Wang holds a wildcard, which places her straight into the draw, and her No. 744 ranking sits more than 350 places below Rajecki's No. 393. Rajecki has already played singles and doubles on these same outdoor hard courts this week, while Wang arrives without qualifying matches at the venue.
- The fixture is listed for at 01:30 local time
- The match is scheduled on Court 2 on outdoor hard court
- Wang is listed as a wildcard with a WTA singles ranking of No. 744, against Rajecki's No. 393
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Sep 2026, 03:10 · Europe/BucharestSofascore match pagewww.sofascore.com · 29 Sep 2026Tennis.com match pagewww.tennis.com · 29 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Total SetslostUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.50fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 66.7%

−3.7ppshort

The combined set evidence points to a two-set match more often than not.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Amelia Rajecki

1.80fair 1.85

BetBugs 54% · Market 55.6%

−1.6ppshort

Rajecki has the higher ranking and solid hard-court numbers, giving her a slight edge in a close match.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Amelia Rajecki

1.80fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 55.6%

−3.6ppshort

Both start well, but Rajecki's higher ranking gives her a narrow edge in the opening set.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Rajecki has the higher ranking and solid hard-court numbers, giving her a slight edge in a close match.
- Rajecki is ranked 393, while Wang is 744.
- Rajecki is 6-3 on hard in her last 9 completed matches, with a 52.3% total points won.
- Wang has no serve or return metrics available.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAmelia RajeckiEstimated chance54%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined second-set averages sit below the line.
- Rajecki's second sets average 8.9 games.
- Wang's second sets average 8.9 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Wang's margins are consistently positive enough to cover this line.
- Wang's recent hard margins: +1, +10, +10, +4, +11, -2.
- She covered +2.5 in all six completed hard matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonYuhan Wang +2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Wang's straight-set wins often produce low game totals, making the under slightly more likely.
- Wang has kept her hard-court matches to an average of 19.8 games.
- Rajecki's hard matches average 23.1 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Wang's tendency to win first sets with few games lost makes the under slightly more likely.
- Wang's first sets average 8.2 games.
- Rajecki's first sets average 10.1 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
The combined set evidence points to a two-set match more often than not.
- Wang's completed hard matches average 2.23 sets.
- Rajecki's completed hard matches average 2.44 sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both start well, but Rajecki's higher ranking gives her a narrow edge in the opening set.
- Rajecki has won 7 of 9 first sets on hard.
- Wang has won 11 of 13 first sets on hard.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAmelia RajeckiEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Wang's better second-set win rate gives her a slight edge if the match reaches a second set.
- Wang has won 8 of 13 second sets on hard.
- Rajecki has won 5 of 9 second sets on hard.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostYuhan WangEstimated chance51%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their completed hard matches have not featured a tiebreak.
- Rajecki has had a tiebreak in 3 of 9 hard matches.
- Wang has had a tiebreak in 3 of 13 hard matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance65%

Previous match context available

Amelia Rajecki

10W 5L

6-1 1-6 6-1#888Hiroko Kuwata

5-7 6-4 6-3—Kurea Hayasaka

6-7(5) 7-6(3) 6-3#588Sayaka Ishii

6-4 6-2#824Nagi Hanatani

3-6 6-3 7-6(1)#861Maria Toma

6-0 6-2#423Ella Mcdonald

5-7 6-3 6-2#793Brooke Black

7-6(3) 6-2#453Hikaru Sato

7-5 6-3#588Sayaka Ishii

6-1 7-6(4)#154Vendula Valdmannova

6-4 7-5#211Viktoria Hruncakova

4-6 6-2 6-4#321Britt Du Pree

6-4 7-6(4)#251Alicia Dudeney

6-3 6-4#737Eliz Maloney

6-3 6-3#458Victoria Allen

Yuhan Wang

8W 7L

2-6 7-6(3) 7-5#529Anna Kubareva

6-2 6-0#291Daria Khomutsianskaya

6-0 6-2#822Yingqun Sun

6-4 7-5—Xiao Tang

6-0 6-1—Mariya Zharkikh

6-4 5-7 11-9#615Unknown Player

6-2 6-0—Kunwei Wang

6-4 6-4#295Yufei Ren

6-0 6-4#288Rina Saigo

6-2 6-1#358Kristiana Sidorova

2-6 7-6(3) 7-6(4)#478Wushuang Zheng

0-6 1-0 ret.—Yu Jun Lin

6-7(7) 6-3 6-4#583Junhan Zhang

6-3 6-1#579Ruien Zhang

6-0 6-2—Florentine Dekkers

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ARAmelia RajeckiRajecki

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Yuhan WangWangYW

Amelia Rajecki carries the stronger recent form — Yuhan Wang's route runs through return.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1559.9%+0.8pp59.1%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1571.7%+5.5pp66.2%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1550.5%+4.0pp46.5%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/157.5+6.41.1

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/155.92.5 fewer3.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1539.3%+11.4pp50.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1546.8%+5.5pp52.3%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1563.4%+1.4pp62.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1551.7%+2.8pp54.5%

Serve · 4–1

59.9%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+0.8pp59.1%

71.7%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+5.5pp66.2%

50.5%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+4.0pp46.5%

7.5Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+6.41.1

5.9Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.5 fewer3.4

Return · 0–1

39.3%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+11.4pp50.7%

Pressure · 1–1

46.8%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+5.5pp52.3%

63.4%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+1.4pp62.0%

Points · 0–1

51.7%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.8pp54.5%