ItalyBari - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Lorenzo Angelini #564Italy2Garrett Johns #381United States1

Sets 4-6 · 7-6 · 7-5Mon 28 Sept 2026, 13:53 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions0–90%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageGarrett Johns · 183 places

Lorenzo Angelini

Italy

Angelini said on 18 August 2026 that his season had brought more week-to-week continuity and a move into Challenger events.

Current ranking: #564
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Garrett Johns

United States

Johns reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 279 in November 2025. The ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #381
Peak ranking: #279 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Sep 2026, 16:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Two players from the same Italian clay swing, 133 ranking places apart: Johns, No. 442, is the likelier winner over Angelini, No. 575 — he holds a 3-2 clay record with three straight-set wins in September, though he has just lost to a player ranked 777.

Neither reviewed price is worth taking: Johns at 1.60 asks for more than his case supports, and Angelini at 2.30 asks for slightly more than his. Straight sets and no tiebreak are low-confidence leans only.

Context

Johns arrives with a small but very recent body of clay work behind him.
Five matches is a thin base for reading anything as a trend, and all of them fall inside a ten-day window in September 2026. The encouraging part is that his wins came in straight sets and none of the five produced a tiebreak; the caution is that both defeats also came in straight sets, so his clay profile has been either a clean win or a clean defeat. Two further clay matches were excluded as retirements, another reason not to stretch the sample.
- Johns's five tracked clay matches ran from 14 to 23 September 2026, with a 3-2 record.
- Three wins came 2-0 and two losses 0-2, with no three-set matches.
- None of the five matches contained a tiebreak, and his average match total was 19.6 games.
- Two further clay matches were excluded from the sample as retirements.
Angelini, ranked No. 575, moved from ITF entries into Challenger draws during 2026 and described the season as his most sustained run of week-to-week tennis. Bari is a Challenger on clay, the surface on which every one of his 15 tracked recent matches was played, so the event is a direct test of that step up. The limitation is that results have not moved with the schedule: he has lost three of his last five, including straight-set defeats to Matteo Sciahbasi and Lorenzo Rottoli. The statement places his entry here as continuity and development rather than a peak in his level.
- In an interview published, Angelini said the season had given him more week-to-week continuity and that he had moved into Challenger events, calling the Italian scene a stimulus.
ReportedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 16:02 · Europe/BucharestSpazioTenniswww.spaziotennis.com · 18 Aug 2026
Johns, 25, has spent the late summer on Italian clay and reached the last eight of the men's ITF draw at the Forte Village Tennis Project event in Santa Margherita di Pula before Andrea De Marchi beat him. De Marchi was then ranked outside the top 600, while Johns arrives at Bari as the higher-ranked player at No. 442. That separates his ranking from his recent results on this surface, and both men have been competing on the same Italian clay swing, so the 130-place gap to Angelini is not borne out by Johns's form. He also played further clay matches in Italy the following week, losing to Daniele Rapagnetta.
- Italy's national federation reported that Andrea De Marchi beat Garrett Johns to reach the semifinals of the men's ITF draw at the first autumn combined event of the Forte Village Tennis Project in Santa Margherita di Pula.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 16:02 · Europe/Bucharest
Angelini's best clay work has come at the start of matches rather than at the finish.
Nine first-set wins from 14 is better than his 7-7 match record, so the opening set has been the part of his clay game that has held up. His 6-8 record in second sets in the same matches shows that advantage has not carried through, and a first-round match against a higher-ranked opponent will test how long it lasts. The sample runs from 5 July to 23 September 2026, with one retirement excluded.
- Angelini won the first set in 9 of 14 tracked clay matches between 5 July and 23 September 2026.
- He averaged 5.1 games won to 3.9 lost in first sets, with no first-set tiebreaks.
- He won the second set in only 6 of those 14 matches, averaging 3.9 games won to 4.6 lost.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Garrett Johns

1.60fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 62.5%

−5.5ppshort

Johns is higher ranked and has won three of five recent clay matches, giving him a modest edge.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Johns is higher ranked and has won three of five recent clay matches, giving him a modest edge.
- Ranked 442 to Angelini's 575.
- Clay record 3-2 in five tracked matches, all in September.
- Won straight sets in three of those five clay matches.
- Angelini is 7-7 on clay and has lost to lower-ranked opponents recently.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostGarrett JohnsEstimated chance57%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second-set totals have generally stayed below the 9.5 line.
- Angelini's second sets average 8.4 total games on clay.
- Johns's second sets average 8.8 total games on clay.
- Their combined second-set average is about 8.5 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Angelini's shorter first sets slightly outweigh Johns's longer ones in the combined view.
- Angelini's first sets average 8.9 total games.
- Johns's first sets average 10.8 total games.
- Neither player has a first-set tiebreak in the clay samples.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The total-games averages sit near the line, with a slight lean under because most matches finish in two sets.
- Angelini's clay matches average 19.2 total games.
- Johns's clay matches average 19.6 total games.
- Only three of Angelini's 14 clay matches went to a third set.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 19.5Estimated chance51%

Sets0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results dominate both players' recent clay records.
- Angelini's clay scorelines: six 2-0, five 0-2, three three-set matches.
- Johns's five clay matches: three 2-0 and two 0-2.
- Combined, only three of 19 tracked clay matches went to a third set.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Johns has the better second-set numbers on clay, with a positive games margin.
- Johns won the second set in 3 of 5 clay matches.
- His second-set games average is 5.2 won to 3.6 lost.
- Angelini won the second set in 6 of 14 clay matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostGarrett JohnsEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Angelini's first-set record is slightly better, though the sample is small.
- Angelini won the first set in 9 of 14 clay matches.
- Johns won the first set in 3 of 5 clay matches.
- Angelini's first-set games average is 5.1 won to 3.9 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostLorenzo AngeliniEstimated chance51%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most recent clay sets have avoided tiebreaks.
- Angelini has two tiebreaks in 14 clay matches.
- Johns has no tiebreaks in five clay matches.
- Neither player has a first-set tiebreak in the clay samples.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance83%

Lorenzo Angelini

7W 8L

6-3 7-6(5)—Matteo Sciahbasi

6-2 6-3—Lorenzo Comino

6-3 6-3#812Lorenzo Rottoli

6-2 6-1#375Laurent Lokoli

0-6 6-0 6-2—Daniel Verbeek

6-1 0-6 6-4—Steffan Van Weldam

6-4 7-6(4)—Stan Put

7-5 6-1#300Petr Nesterov

4-6 6-4 6-2#620Maxime Janvier

6-2 ret.#417Pavel Lagutin

6-3 6-4—Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento

6-3 6-1#769Andres Santamarta Roig

6-4 6-2#163Max Alcala Gurri

6-3 6-0#226Inaki Montes-De La Torre

6-3 6-1#785Luca Castagnola

Garrett Johns

8W 7L

6-4 6-4#777Daniele Rapagnetta

6-4 6-2#707Tristan Mccormick

7-5 6-4#652Andrea De Marchi

7-5 6-1#759Gabriele Maria Noce

6-4 6-3#812Lorenzo Rottoli

6-2 6-2#672Max Purcell

6-7(1) 6-3 6-2#628Aidan Kim

6-4 6-1#131Pedro Martinez Portero

2-6 6-4 3-2 ret.#472Paulo Saraiva Dos Santos

3-6 6-4 6-1#410Timo Legout

6-3 6-1#632Guillaume Dalmasso

6-3 6-3#335Mees Rottgering

6-0 4-0 ret.#1033Anirudh Chandrasekar

2-6 6-1 6-1#517Alan Magadan

6-7(8) 6-2 7-6(4)#242August Holmgren

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LALorenzo AngeliniAngelini

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Garrett JohnsJohnsGJ

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1566.3%+11.7pp54.6%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1558.7%+6.6pp65.3%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1547.2%+1.9pp49.1%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/150.8+2.73.5

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.10.8 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1544.9%+4.4pp40.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1542.1%+5.3pp47.4%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1558.9%+0.9pp58.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1549.9%—49.5%

Serve · 2–3

66.3%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+11.7pp54.6%

58.7%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+6.6pp65.3%

47.2%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.9pp49.1%

0.8Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+2.73.5

2.1Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.8 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

44.9%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+4.4pp40.5%

Pressure · 1–1

42.1%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+5.3pp47.4%

58.9%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+0.9pp58.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.9%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—49.5%