United StatesColumbus - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Braden Shick #219United States2Ozan Baris #486United States1

Sets 7-6 · 0-6 · 6-3Mon 28 Sept 2026, 21:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions4–544%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBraden Shick · 267 places

Braden Shick

United States

Reliable public profile detail beyond the supplied ranking and playing style was limited. Use structured recent-form and hard-court data as the main context.

Current ranking: #219
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Ozan Baris

United States

The 22-year-old American is right-handed and 185 cm tall. His supplied current ranking of No. 486 matches the career high listed by Sofascore.

Current ranking: #486
Peak ranking: #486
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Sep 2026, 01:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Shick, ranked No. 202, is the better player here but has lost four of his last six, while Baris, No. 416, arrives off a San Diego qualifying week.

Shick still looks the likelier winner, with his second sets the strongest part of his hard-court record. At the reviewed prices — 1.6 for Shick to win, 1.65 for the second set, and 2.2 and 2.1 on Baris — nothing is worth taking.

Context

Shick, ranked No. 202, has been noticeably stronger in second sets than in first sets during this hard-court window.
The 13-match sample, which excludes one retirement, covers tournament play from late June to 21 September 2026 and describes how Shick's matches have tended to be shaped. Opening sets have been a weakness at 6-7 while second sets are 9-4, so the two should be weighed differently. It remains a modest sample rather than a settled pattern.
- Shick won 6 of 13 first sets and 9 of 13 second sets in completed hard-court matches from 30 June to 21 September 2026.
- One retirement was excluded from the sample.
- First sets averaged 10.2 total games and second sets 9.8; five of the 13 matches included a tiebreak.
Shick arrives in Columbus off a defeat to a player ranked more than 600 places below him.
Maloney's ranking makes the result stand out, and it came in Shick's last completed match before this first round. Shick won nine games to Maloney's 13 across the two sets, so the second set was close without ever turning his way. It is one result rather than a trend, since his hard-court record in the window is still 8-5, but it forms part of a run of four losses in his last six tracked matches.
- Shick lost 3-6 6-7 to Patrick Maloney (No. 864) on 21 September 2026.
- Shick won 9 games and Maloney 13.
- Shick has lost four of his last six tracked hard-court matches.
Columbus is a Challenger 75 on hard courts, the tier where Shick (No. 202) and Baris (No. 416) are currently building their rankings, and the main draw was published with this pairing in the first round. The surroundings explain the matchup: the field sits outside the top 100, so neither player is stepping up in class or facing a ranking gap created by a main-tour draw. For both, this first round is the difference between a second match and another week ended on day one, which is why their Challenger-level results carry more weight than distant form.
- The 2026 Columbus event is an ATP Challenger 75 on the week's Challenger calendar alongside Porto, Curitiba, Mouilleron-le-Captif, Bari and Jingshan.
- The Columbus Challenger 75 main-draw singles draw was published .
- The opening-round match is scheduled for 28 September 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 01:19 · Europe/Bucharest
Baris needed two qualifying wins in San Diego, including a comeback from a set down against Alex Rybakov, so his most recent hard-court sample contains more competitive matches than a single early exit. The 6-1 6-3 defeat to Igor Marcondes reads differently once Marcondes's week is accounted for: Marcondes reached the San Diego final and stayed in the United States for Columbus. The usable signal for this fixture is that Baris's qualifying wins came against opponents ranked below him, while his most recent meeting with a player inside the top 350 ended in a heavy straight-set loss.
- Baris beat Shunsuke Mitsui 6-1 6-2 in the first qualifying round at the San Diego Challenger.
- Baris beat Alex Rybakov 1-6 6-3 6-4 in the final qualifying round, reported as his second successful qualifying run of 2026.
- Baris lost 6-1 6-3 to Igor Marcondes in the San Diego main draw .
- Marcondes reached the San Diego final, losing to Nishesh Basavareddy 7-5 6-4, and remained in the United States for Columbus.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 01:19 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Braden Shick

1.60fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 62.5%

−4.5ppshort

Shick is the higher-ranked player and has a winning hard-court record against clearly stronger opposition than Baris has been beating.

Set 2 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Braden Shick

1.65fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 60.6%

−3.6ppshort

Shick's second-set record is the strongest part of his hard-court sample, and Baris's four straight-set losses often ended poorly.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Shick is the higher-ranked player and has a winning hard-court record against clearly stronger opposition than Baris has been beating.
- ATP ranking 202 against 416
- 8 wins and 5 losses in 13 tracked hard-court matches
- Baris's 10-5 hard record is built on wins over opponents ranked 511, 536 and 884
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBraden ShickEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Shick's matches regularly run long, often through a deciding set, which pulls the combined games expectation around the line.
- Shick's hard-court matches average 23.7 total games
- Baris's hard-court matches average 21.5 games with only one tiebreak in 15
- Both average about 2.4 sets per completed match
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Baris's opening sets have usually been short, and both players have recent lopsided first sets.
- Baris's opening sets average 8.5 total games
- Baris has had no first-set tiebreak in 15 hard-court matches
- Shick has lost 7 of 13 opening sets, several by wide margins
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The two second-set averages sit narrowly under the line, with Baris's matches particularly unlikely to reach a tiebreak.
- Baris's second sets average 9.1 total games
- Baris has had only 1 second-set tiebreak in 15 hard matches
- Shick's second sets average 9.8 games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Shick's second-set record is the strongest part of his hard-court sample, and Baris's four straight-set losses often ended poorly.
- Shick has won 9 of 13 second sets on hard
- Baris has won 9 of 15 second sets on hard
- Shick's second sets average 9.8 games to Baris's 9.1
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostBraden ShickEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes are the most common single outcome for both players, keeping two-set finishes modestly more likely.
- Shick's scorelines include five 2-0 wins and three 0-2 losses in 13 matches
- Baris's scorelines include five 2-0 wins and four 0-2 losses in 15 matches
- Baris's matches average 2.4 sets; Shick's 2.38
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Shick's overall edge translates into a slight lean in the first set, though neither player has a strong opening-set record.
- Shick has won 6 of 13 opening sets on hard
- Baris has won 7 of 15 opening sets on hard
- Shick's opening sets average 10.2 games against Baris's 8.5
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonBraden ShickEstimated chance53%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' sets have been settled without a tiebreak, especially Baris's short opening sets.
- Baris has had only 1 tiebreak in 15 hard-court matches
- Shick has had 5 tiebreak matches in 13, but 8 without one
- Baris's opening sets average just 8.5 games
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance76%

Previous match context available

Braden Shick

9W 6L

6-3 7-6(5)#864Patrick Maloney

6-4 6-7(5) 6-4#218Jeff Wolf

6-3 6-4#594Erik Arutiunian

6-4 6-1#125Shintaro Mochizuki

6-4 7-5#160Clement Tabur

6-2 6-2#143Mark Lajal

6-2 6-3#206Andres Andrade

6-7(5) 6-3 6-3#242August Holmgren

6-7(5) 6-2 7-5#900Benjamin Thomas George

5-7 6-3 6-2#221Rio Noguchi

6-2 6-3#182Bernard Tomic

4-6 7-5 6-3#410Timo Legout

7-6(6) 6-4#258Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-4 4-1 ret.#359Dhakshineswar Suresh

6-1 6-2#314Fajing Sun

Ozan Baris

10W 5L

6-1 6-3#324Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

1-6 6-3 6-4#511Alex Rybakov 6-1 6-2#536Shunsuke Mitsui

6-4 4-6 6-4#513Evan Zhu

6-4 4-6 6-2#884Lorenzo Claverie

6-3 6-4—Nikita Filin

6-2 1-6 6-3#874Luca Pow

6-1 6-3—Mitchell Sheldon

6-0 6-2#198Edas Butvilas

6-4 7-5#203Liam Broady

6-4 6-2#749Vignesh Gogineni

2-6 6-3 6-4#297Johannus Monday

6-3 6-1#872Maxwell Exsted

5-7 7-6(5) 7-5#863Oliver Bonding

6-1 6-2—Nikita Filin

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

BSBraden ShickShick

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Ozan BarisBarisOB

Ozan Baris carries the stronger recent form — Braden Shick's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In58.1%+4.1pp62.2%

1st Serve Won68.5%+2.7pp71.2%

2nd Serve Won54.0%—54.5%

Aces / Match5.3+2.42.9

Double Faults / Match3.11.3 fewer1.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won38.1%+1.9pp40.0%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted46.1%+6.7pp39.4%

Break Pts Saved65.8%+7.8pp58.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.8%+1.0pp51.8%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

58.1%1st Serve In+4.1pp62.2%

68.5%1st Serve Won+2.7pp71.2%

54.0%2nd Serve Won—54.5%

5.3Aces / Match+2.42.9

3.1Double Faults / Match1.3 fewer1.8

Return · 0–1

38.1%Return Pts Won+1.9pp40.0%

Pressure · 2–0

46.1%Break Pts Converted+6.7pp39.4%

65.8%Break Pts Saved+7.8pp58.0%

Points · 0–1

50.8%Total Pts Won+1.0pp51.8%