FranceMouilleron-Le-Captif - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Alberto Barroso Campos #635Spain2Thijs Boogaard #481Netherlands0

Sets 6-2 · 6-2Sun 27 Sept 2026, 14:41 Predictions gradedQ1I.hard

Predictions3–538%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageThijs Boogaard · 154 places

Alberto Barroso Campos

Spain

Barroso Campos, 30, is the right-hander in this matchup. He reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 316 in August 2024; ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #635
Peak ranking: #316 · 2024
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Thijs Boogaard

Netherlands

Boogaard, 481, is the right-hander in this matchup. Reliable public profile detail beyond his ranking, 183 cm height and two-handed backhand is thin. Use the form section as the main player context.

Current ranking: #481
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Sep 2026, 02:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Boogaard's 8-3 hard-court record and 8 of 11 opening sets meet Barroso Campos's longer matches in this indoor qualifying opener at Mouilleron-le-Captif.

Boogaard is the likely winner, most plausibly in straight sets. His 1.25 price asks for more than that form justifies, and no quoted price in the reviewed markets is worth backing.

Context

Boogaard's hard-court sample is small but consistent in shape: short matches, with only two of his eight wins needing a third set.
If that pattern holds, Barroso Campos will need to win a set to stay in the match, something he managed in eight of his 12 hard-court matches since 18 June.
- Hard-court setEvidence, best-of-3: 11 completed matches from 17 June to 23 September 2026, record 8-3.
- Scorelines: six 2-0 wins, two 2-1 wins and three 0-2 defeats; average 21.2 total games and 2.18 sets per match.
- Set one: 8 wins, 3 losses, averaging 5.82 games won and 4.36 lost, with four set-one tiebreaks.
- One retirement was excluded from that same-surface sample.
Indoor hard compresses the time available on serve and return, shifting the emphasis to first-strike serving and early ball-striking. Barroso Campos, 30, lists clay as his preferred surface and has played almost exclusively on hard courts over the past two months, so this event offers no return to the slower conditions he knows best. Boogaard's most recent matches on 22-23 September were also indoors on hard courts, a 6-1 6-0 win followed by a 6-4 7-6(4) loss the next day, so surface familiarity is not one-sided. The limitation is that no court-speed measurement or player comment on the conditions at this edition is available.
- Main draw for the Mouilleron-le-Captif Challenger 75 published .
- Event listed as an indoor hard-court Challenger 75 in week-39 tournament coverage.
- Main draw and qualifying draw both confirmed for the event .
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 02:20 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Thijs Boogaard

1.25fair 1.49

BetBugs 67% · Market 80%

−13.0ppshort

Boogaard has the stronger hard-court and opening-set records, while Barroso Campos has lost eight of twelve hard-court matches.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Boogaard has the stronger hard-court and opening-set records, while Barroso Campos has lost eight of twelve hard-court matches.
- Boogaard is 8-3 in 11 hard-court matches in setEvidence; Barroso Campos is 4-8 in 12.
- Boogaard won set1 in 8 of 11 hard-court matches; Barroso Campos won set1 in 6 of 12.
- Boogaard is ranked 481; Barroso Campos is ranked 699.
- Boogaard won six of eleven hard-court matches 2-0.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostThijs BoogaardEstimated chance67%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A straight-set Boogaard win is the most common route in the sample, which keeps the total below 23.5.
- Boogaard won six of eleven hard-court matches 2-0.
- Barroso Campos's hard-court scorelines include seven straight-set matches in 12.
- Boogaard's average total games is 21.2; Barroso Campos's is 25.3.
- Boogaard's total sets average is 2.18.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 23.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets average above the line, and tiebreaks are frequent.
- Boogaard's set1 average total games is 10.18 in 11 hard-court matches.
- Barroso Campos's set1 average total games is 10.42 in 12 hard-court matches.
- Boogaard has 4 set1 tiebreaks in 11 hard-court matches.
- Barroso Campos has 3 set1 tiebreaks in 12 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results dominate both players' hard-court samples, especially Boogaard's wins.
- Boogaard won six of eleven hard-court matches 2-0.
- Barroso Campos's hard-court scorelines include seven straight-set matches in 12.
- Boogaard's total sets average is 2.18.
- Barroso Campos has three 2-0 wins in 12 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Boogaard's set-one record is clearly stronger, and he starts matches more reliably than Barroso Campos.
- Boogaard won set1 in 8 of 11 hard-court matches.
- Barroso Campos won set1 in 6 of 12 hard-court matches.
- Boogaard's set1 games average 5.82 won, 4.36 lost.
- Boogaard has four set1 tiebreaks in 11 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostThijs BoogaardEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Boogaard has a modest edge in second sets, though his set-two record is less dominant than his set-one record.
- Boogaard won set2 in 6 of 11 hard-court matches.
- Barroso Campos won set2 in 5 of 12 hard-court matches.
- Boogaard's set2 games average 5.0 won, 4.0 lost.
- Barroso Campos's set2 games average 5.33 won, 5.5 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostThijs BoogaardEstimated chance58%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results without a tiebreak are common enough in the sample to give no a slight edge.
- Boogaard's hard-court matches had no tiebreak in 5 of 11.
- Barroso Campos's hard-court matches had no tiebreak in 7 of 12.
- Boogaard's set2 average total games is 9.0.
- Barroso Campos has 7 straight-set hard-court matches in 12.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance52%

Alberto Barroso Campos

5W 10L

5-7 7-6(1) 6-1#554Alec Deckers

6-7(6) 7-6(4) 7-5#850Kenny de Schepper

6-1 7-5#433Jonas Forejtek

7-5 6-2#873Andrea Colombo

7-6(2) 7-6(4)#887Pavlos Tsitsipas

6-2 6-1—Alexander Bravo

6-4 6-7(4) 6-4#332Tiago Pereira

6-1 6-2—Salvador Monteiro

6-2 7-5#421Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-7(1) 6-3 6-3#381Massimo Giunta

6-3 6-3#177Clement Chidekh

6-3 6-4#632Guillaume Dalmasso

6-2 7-5#394Lui Maxted

3-6 6-4 6-4—Diogo Morais

7-5 7-5#290Carl Emil Overbeck

Thijs Boogaard

10W 5L

6-4 7-6(4)#899Lucas Renard

6-1 6-0—Love Nyqvist

6-2 7-6(0)—Sergey Petrov

7-6(2) 6-2#774Conor Gannon

6-1 6-3—Zian Vanderstappen

6-1 6-4—Karim Mabrouk

6-1 6-1#187Jan Kumstat

6-0 4-6 4-2 ret.#519Gerard Campana Lee

3-6 7-6(3) 6-4#172Gauthier Onclin

7-5 2-6 7-5#354Tiago Torres

7-6(4) 6-2#526Fabrizio Andaloro

7-6(5) 6-0#290Carl Emil Overbeck

6-3 3-6 6-4#413Patrick Schoen

7-6(8) 6-3#651Goncalo Marques

6-3 4-6 7-6(6)#6Daniil Medvedev

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ACAlberto Barroso CamposCampos

Last 15

1–6

9 core stats · 2 even

Thijs BoogaardBoogaardTB

Thijs Boogaard carries the stronger recent form — Alberto Barroso Campos's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–3 · 2 even

1st Serve In59.6%+2.3pp61.9%

1st Serve Won68.3%—68.2%

2nd Serve Won50.1%+5.2pp55.3%

Aces / Match2.9+0.43.3

Double Faults / Match3.4—3.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.5%+4.3pp40.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted38.9%+2.3pp36.6%

Break Pts Saved49.5%+11.2pp60.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.5%+3.4pp51.9%

Serve · 0–3 · 2 even

59.6%1st Serve In+2.3pp61.9%

68.3%1st Serve Won—68.2%

50.1%2nd Serve Won+5.2pp55.3%

2.9Aces / Match+0.43.3

3.4Double Faults / Match—3.3

Return · 0–1

36.5%Return Pts Won+4.3pp40.8%

Pressure · 1–1

38.9%Break Pts Converted+2.3pp36.6%

49.5%Break Pts Saved+11.2pp60.7%

Points · 0–1

48.5%Total Pts Won+3.4pp51.9%