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Predictions graded

Carole Monnet #196France0Anastasia Gasanova #191Russia2

Sets 2-6 · 1-6Thu 24 Sept 2026, 09:12 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions8–562%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAnastasia Gasanova · 5 places

Carole Monnet

France

French player, born 1 December 2001, with a WTA-listed career-high singles ranking of No. 158 in November 2025. The ITF profile lists clay as her preferred surface; no current fitness concern surfaced in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #196
Peak ranking: #158
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Anastasia Gasanova

Russia

Gasanova, 27, is a right-hander. Her recorded career-high singles ranking is No. 121, reached in 2022.

Current ranking: #191
Peak ranking: #121 · 2022
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 172 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 15:57 · Europe/Bucharest

Two players separated by 11 ranking places meet in Ankara's second round, and Gasanova's hard-court record, 8-5 with 55.7% of games won, makes her the likelier winner, though Monnet's habit of close sets and Gasanova's six double faults a match keep it open.

Gasanova at 1.4 asks more than that edge justifies. Monnet to win at 2.9 and the match to finish in two sets at 1.45 are the two quoted prices that come out ahead.

Context

Gasanova's serve produces little free-point value, though she has limited the damage with her break-point defence.
Gasanova's last 15 matches contain 89 double faults against just 10 aces, and the hard-court split is 78 double faults in 13 matches, roughly six per outing. That is a lot of free points in a match where Monnet's recent sets have been close, and it is her clearest route to staying level without winning long rallies. The counterweight is that Gasanova still saves 58.7% of break points and takes 52.1% of total points across the same 15 matches.
- Gasanova's last 15 matches include 89 double faults and 10 aces, an average of 5.9 double faults per match.
- On hard courts she has 78 double faults in 13 matches, 6.0 per match, against nine aces.
- Across those 15 matches she wins 47.6% of second-serve points and saves 58.7% of break points.
Gasanova is the higher-ranked player here and the draw's sixth seed, and she has already banked a routine two-set win on these courts while conceding six games. That ranking edge is modest, with roughly ten places separating the two entrants, so the seeding frames the match without separating them. It matters mainly because Monnet has been beating players ranked below Gasanova and losing to those above her, which puts this fixture on the edge of that pattern. The limitation is that Gasanova's first-round opponent sits outside the top 200, so the win establishes little about how she handles a player of Monnet's level.
- Gasanova advanced past Anastasia Tikhonova 6-2 6-4 in the first round .
- Gasanova is seeded sixth in the 32-woman Ankara draw.
ReportedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 15:56 · Europe/Bucharest
Monnet's passage to the last 16 came in straight sets but needed a second-set tiebreak against world No. 227 Fiona Crawley, so the 6-1 7-6(4) line overstates the comfort. The more useful signal is her pattern this autumn: every win has come against a player ranked outside the top 150, while her defeats have been to higher-ranked opponents such as Sloane Stephens and Barbora Krejcikova. Gasanova, at No. 195, sits among the opponents Monnet has been beating rather than the ones who have beaten her. The counterpoint is that Monnet's last three matches have all been on hard courts, the surface in play here, so nothing about a change of conditions explains the gap in opposition.
- Monnet beat Fiona Crawley 6-1 7-6(4) in the first round .
- Monnet is the only French player entered at the Ankara Open.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 15:56 · Europe/Bucharest
A WTA qualifying draw and a competitive first-round loss to Sloane Stephens give a sharper gauge of Monnet's level than the 125 tier does, and the tiebreak second set shows she was not outclassed. She then moved from Guadalajara to Ankara with a week between matches, enough time to travel and adjust to new conditions. The limitation is that this is level-of-opposition information rather than a playing condition: the events sit a continent apart and a week apart, so nothing carries over directly. Read alongside her wider stretch, it points to a player who competes with higher-ranked opposition without yet converting those chances.
- Monnet came through qualifying at the Guadalajara Open.
- She lost 6-4 7-6(5) to Sloane Stephens in the main draw on 14 September 2026, then entered the 125 event in Ankara.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 15:56 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gasanova has the better hard-court record and the more efficient game numbers, while Monnet's serve data is unavailable.
- Gasanova is 8-5 in 13 hard-court matches this window, winning 55.7% of games (137-109) and 52.5% of points.
- Monnet is 4-3 on hard in the same window with no serve or return metrics supplied.
- Gasanova converted 50.4% of break points and saved 58.3% on hard.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAnastasia GasanovaEstimated chance56%

Games2 of 7 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Monnet's record shows competitive scorelines even in defeat, making a seven-game loss unlikely.
- Monnet's hard-court matches average 23.6 games.
- Monnet has lost by three games in each of her last two hard-court defeats.
- Gasanova's hard-court margin averages +2.2 per match.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostCarole Monnet +6.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Monnet has not been beaten heavily on this surface recently, so a six-game loss looks unlikely.
- Monnet's hard-court matches average 23.6 games.
- Neither of Monnet's two recent hard-court losses exceeded three games.
- Gasanova's average margin on the surface is +2.2.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostCarole Monnet +5.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Monnet's close sets and frequent tiebreaks make a five-game defeat the less likely outcome.
- Monnet's two most recent hard-court defeats were by three games.
- Gasanova's average hard-court game margin is +2.2.
- Monnet's tiebreak-heavy sets limit large margins.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostCarole Monnet +4.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Monnet keeps matches close enough on this surface to stay within four games more often than not.
- Monnet's recent hard-court losses were by three games each.
- Gasanova wins 55.7% of hard-court games, giving a modest expected margin.
- Monnet has taken a set or forced tiebreaks in most recent hard matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostCarole Monnet +3.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Monnet's second sets regularly run past ten games with tiebreaks, lifting the expected total slightly above the line.
- Monnet's second sets on hard average 10.9 games with four tiebreaks in seven matches.
- Gasanova's second sets on hard average 8.7 games with no tiebreaks.
- The combined second-set average is around 9.8 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gasanova's large share of quick straight-set wins pulls the combined expectation just below the line.
- Gasanova's 13 hard-court matches average 18.9 total games.
- Monnet's 7 hard-court matches average 23.6 total games.
- Gasanova's straight-set wins in this window were often lopsided.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gasanova's habit of decisive starts drags the opening-set total slightly below the line.
- Gasanova's first sets on hard average 8.9 games with one tiebreak in thirteen matches.
- Monnet's first sets on hard average 9.7 games.
- Gasanova has won 7 of 13 first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Straight-set finishes dominate both players' hard-court records in this window.
- Gasanova has played 11 straight-set matches in 13 on hard.
- Monnet has played 5 straight-set matches in 7 on hard.
- Gasanova's hard-court matches average 2.15 sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The second set is clearly Gasanova's stronger set on hard courts, and Monnet's second-set record is below even.
- Gasanova has won the second set in 9 of 13 hard-court matches.
- Monnet has won the second set in 3 of 7 hard-court matches.
- Gasanova's second-set games average is 5.15 won against 3.54 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAnastasia GasanovaEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gasanova starts matches slightly better than Monnet and has the better first-set record on this surface.
- Gasanova has won the first set in 7 of 13 hard-court matches.
- Monnet has won the first set in 3 of 7 hard-court matches.
- Gasanova's first-set games average is 4.62 won against 4.31 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAnastasia GasanovaEstimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gasanova's sets are mostly settled by breaks, which makes a tiebreak-free match the more likely outcome.
- Gasanova has had one tiebreak in 13 hard-court matches.
- Gasanova has won 7 of 13 hard-court matches in straight sets.
- Monnet has had a tiebreak in 5 of 7 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance64%

Previous match context available

Carole Monnet

7W 8L

6-1 7-6(4)#227Fiona Crawley

6-4 7-6(5)#135Sloane Stephens

7-6(6) 6-7(4) 6-2#238Katrina Scott

7-5 6-2#848Julia Garcia

6-4 7-6(4)#249Anouk Koevermans

7-6(4) 6-3#90Kaitlin Quevedo

7-6(1) 7-5#282Elena Ruxandra Bertea

6-1 6-3#338Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

6-3 3-1 ret.#383Jessica Pieri

6-0 6-2#44Barbora Krejcikova

4-6 6-2 7-6(10)#173Rebeka Masarova

6-2 6-4#180Tatiana Prozorova

6-3 6-1#82Xiyu Wang

7-5 7-6(5)#300Martina Trevisan

6-3 6-4#38Donna Vekic

Anastasia Gasanova

9W 6L

6-2 6-4#250Anastasia Tikhonova

6-1 2-6 6-4#255Matilde Jorge

7-5 6-4#255Matilde Jorge

6-4 6-3#372Aoi Ito

6-2 6-1#213Francisca Jorge

6-1 6-0#868Iveta Dapkute

6-4 6-3#489Maria Martinez Vaquero

6-3 6-4#367Sofia Johnson

6-0 6-3#255Matilde Jorge

3-6 6-2 6-1#381Ariana Arseneault

6-4 6-1#207Madison Brengle

6-1 6-4#236Harmony Tan

7-6(3) 6-4#139Susan Bandecchi

6-3 6-2#17Naomi Osaka

6-3 6-1#137Emiliana Arango

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CMCarole MonnetMonnet

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Anastasia GasanovaGasanovaAG

Anastasia Gasanova carries the stronger recent form — Carole Monnet's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In63.8%—64.0%

1st Serve Won59.4%+1.4pp60.8%

2nd Serve Won36.2%+11.4pp47.6%

Aces / Match1.3+0.60.7

Double Faults / Match6.30.4 fewer5.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won46.7%+1.6pp48.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted51.2%+1.2pp50.0%

Break Pts Saved52.6%+6.1pp58.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.9%+3.2pp52.1%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

63.8%1st Serve In—64.0%

59.4%1st Serve Won+1.4pp60.8%

36.2%2nd Serve Won+11.4pp47.6%

1.3Aces / Match+0.60.7

6.3Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer5.9

Return · 0–1

46.7%Return Pts Won+1.6pp48.3%

Pressure · 1–1

51.2%Break Pts Converted+1.2pp50.0%

52.6%Break Pts Saved+6.1pp58.7%

Points · 0–1

48.9%Total Pts Won+3.2pp52.1%

Carole Monnet

Anastasia Gasanova

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Carole Monnet

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 7 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Carole Monnet

Anastasia Gasanova

Stat Battle