Plovdiv - BulgariaFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Tommaso Compagnucci #364Italy0Pol Martin Tiffon #209Spain2

Sets 1-6 · 6-7Wed 23 Sept 2026, 11:01 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions7–278%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePol Martin Tiffon · 155 places

Tommaso Compagnucci

Italy

Italian player born 5 November 1999. ITF lists hard as his preferred surface; his 2026 record in the retrieved official profile was predominantly on clay.

Current ranking: #364
Peak ranking: #364 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Pol Martin Tiffon

Spain

ITF lists clay as his preferred surface. He reached a career-high No. 197 on June 9, 2025.

Current ranking: #209
Peak ranking: #197 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 09:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Fifth seed Pol Martin Tiffon is the higher-ranked player with a day more rest, but Tommaso Compagnucci has the better recent clay record: 10-5 in 15 matches, 13 of them finished in straight sets.

Tiffon is the likelier winner, but his 1.36 price does not justify backing it. The 2.9 on Compagnucci is the one reviewed price that offers something.

Context

Yanaki Milev arrived in Plovdiv having just reached the final at Challenger Plovdiv 3 the previous week. Compagnucci took the match in three sets, dropping the second 1-6 before closing it out. That is a win over an opponent carrying form into the event, and it also cost him a full three-set match on the eve of this tie.
- Compagnucci beat Yanaki Milev 6-3 1-6 6-3 .
- Yanaki Milev had reached the final at Challenger Plovdiv 3 before this event.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 09:17 · Europe/Bucharest
Martin Tiffon is the fifth seed in this draw, which reflects both his standing in the field and his higher ranking than Compagnucci. He lost the opening set 1-6 to Benjamin Hassan before turning the match around to take the next two. The result keeps the seeded player on course at Plovdiv 4 going into the round of 16.
- Pol Martin Tiffon is the fifth seed at Plovdiv 4.
- He beat Benjamin Hassan 1-6 6-4 6-1 .
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 09:17 · Europe/Bucharest
Compagnucci's clay results mostly resolve inside two sets, in both directions.
Eight of his wins came 2-0 and five of his defeats came 0-2, so only two of the 15 matches reached a deciding set. Against a higher-ranked opponent who has gone to six deciders in 11 clay matches, Compagnucci's route to an upset probably needs him to take sets early rather than survive a long match, and a slow start is hard to repair when his own matches rarely stretch.
- Clay, best-of-three, 23 July to 22 September 2026: 15 completed matches, 10 wins and 5 losses, with no retirements excluded.
- Scorelines: eight 2-0 wins, five 0-2 losses and two 2-1 wins, so 13 of 15 finished in straight sets.
Tiffon's clay record is split: across the window he won two matches and lost four in deciding sets.
Tiffon's 11 clay matches average 23.5 games and have produced four tiebreaks. That volume cuts both ways against an opponent whose clay matches average 19.7 games and rarely reach a third set: if the match lengthens, the extra day away from competition Tiffon carried into it counts for more, but if Compagnucci takes the early sets, Tiffon already has four deciding-set defeats in this window.
- Clay, best-of-three, 12 May to 21 September 2026: 11 completed matches, 6 wins and 5 losses, with one retirement excluded from the sample.
- Total games average 23.5 per match; six of the 11 went to a deciding set and four included a tiebreak, across scorelines of two 2-1 wins, four 1-2 losses, four 2-0 wins and one 0-2 loss.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
He is the higher-ranked, fifth-seeded player and had a full day more to recover than an opponent who played a three-setter the previous day.
- ATP No. 215, roughly 150 places above Compagnucci at No. 366
- Clay this window: 6-5 in 11 completed matches, average 2.55 sets per match
- Four of those six clay wins came in straight sets
- Won his opener 1-6 6-4 6-1 on 21 September, a day before Compagnucci's first round
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPol Martin TiffonEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Opening sets for both players sit just below ten games on average, with tiebreaks rare in the first set.
- Set-1 totals average 8.9 games for Compagnucci and 9.1 for Tiffon
- No set-1 tiebreak in Compagnucci's 15 clay matches; one in Tiffon's 11
- Compagnucci's set-1 games: 5.0 won, 3.9 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets for these two have averaged just under ten games, with tiebreaks largely absent from Tiffon's clay sets.
- Set-2 totals average 9.5 games for Compagnucci and 8.8 for Tiffon
- Compagnucci's set-2 sets have produced 3 tiebreaks in 15 matches
- Tiffon has no set-2 tiebreaks in 11 clay matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Martin Tiffon's clay matches regularly run long and both men arrive from extended opening rounds, which lifts the chance of a total above 21.5 games.
- Compagnucci's clay matches average 19.7 games; Martin Tiffon's average 23.5
- Martin Tiffon has gone to a decider in 6 of 11 clay matches
- Both first-round matches passed 23 games
- Compagnucci has deciders in only 2 of 15 clay matches
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance53%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes dominate the combined clay record, particularly for Compagnucci, who rarely gets taken to a third set.
- Compagnucci: 13 of 15 clay matches ended in straight sets
- Tiffon: 5 of 11 clay matches ended in straight sets
- Compagnucci's straight-set scorelines include 8 wins and 5 defeats
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tiffon has the better second-set win rate and the tighter games record there, matching his stronger standing in the match.
- Tiffon is 7-4 in second sets on clay this window
- Compagnucci is 8-7 in second sets on clay
- Set-2 games: Tiffon 4.6 won to 4.2 lost; Compagnucci 4.9 to 4.7
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonPol Martin TiffonEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both men start sets well, but Tiffon's higher ranking and extra rest give him a slight pull in the opener.
- Tiffon has won the opening set in 7 of 11 clay matches
- Compagnucci has won the opening set in 10 of 15 clay matches
- Set-1 games: Tiffon 4.9 won to 4.2 lost; Compagnucci 5.0 to 3.9
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonPol Martin TiffonEstimated chance54%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks appear in only about a quarter of these two players' clay matches, and most sets are settled before 6-6.
- Tiebreak matches: Compagnucci 3 of 15, Tiffon 4 of 11 on clay
- Only one set-1 tiebreak across the two players' 26 combined set-1 sets
- Matches average just over two sets for Compagnucci, 2.55 for Tiffon
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance70%

Previous match context available

Tommaso Compagnucci

10W 5L

6-3 1-6 6-3#627Yanaki Milev

6-4 6-3#438Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

6-1 6-2—Riccardo Carpano

6-2 6-2#266Dominic Stricker

6-3 6-7(1) 6-4#280Juan Manuel La Serna

6-3 6-2#415Ryan Nijboer

7-5 6-3#897Max Dahlin

6-2 6-4#225Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-3 7-5#760Aleksandr Braynin

6-4 6-2#72Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-4 7-6(3)#330Dali Blanch

6-2 6-1—Siddhant Banthia

6-2 6-4#491Filip Jeff Planinsek

6-2 7-6(3)#365Sebastian Sorger

6-3 6-2—Alex Huszar

Pol Martin Tiffon

7W 8L

1-6 6-4 6-1#428Benjamin Hassan

6-3 2-6 6-2#72Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-7(5) 6-4 6-1#615Oleksandr Ovcharenko

6-4 6-4#370Juan Pablo Ficovich

7-5 6-3#162Tom Gentzsch

6-4 ret.#362Marko Topo

6-4 6-2#140Pablo Llamas Ruiz

6-4 6-4#316Gilles Arnaud Bailly

2-6 6-2 7-6(5)#212Chun Hsin Tseng

6-1 2-6 7-6(2)#185Joel Schwaerzler

6-4 6-4#592Pietro Orlando Fellin

6-2 3-6 7-6(5)#225Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-2 6-3#790Yannick Theodor Alexandrescou

7-5 6-1#247Jay Clarke

6-2 6-2#262Charles Broom

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TCTommaso CompagnucciCompagnucci

Last 15

6–1

9 core stats · 2 even

Pol Martin TiffonTiffonPT

Tommaso Compagnucci carries the stronger recent form — Pol Martin Tiffon's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In64.4%+5.5pp58.9%

1st Serve Won68.9%—69.2%

2nd Serve Won51.2%+1.4pp49.8%

Aces / Match2.1+1.13.2

Double Faults / Match1.51.5 fewer3.0

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.1%+1.4pp38.7%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted43.8%+6.3pp37.5%

Break Pts Saved57.3%—57.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.2%+1.7pp49.5%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

64.4%1st Serve In+5.5pp58.9%

68.9%1st Serve Won—69.2%

51.2%2nd Serve Won+1.4pp49.8%

2.1Aces / Match+1.13.2

1.5Double Faults / Match1.5 fewer3.0

Return · 1–0

40.1%Return Pts Won+1.4pp38.7%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

43.8%Break Pts Converted+6.3pp37.5%

57.3%Break Pts Saved—57.6%

Points · 1–0

51.2%Total Pts Won+1.7pp49.5%