United StatesSan Diego - USAFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Tyler Zink #337United States0Federico Agustin Gomez #200Argentina2

Sets 2-6 · 3-6Tue 22 Sept 2026, 19:37 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–633%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFederico Agustin Gomez · 137 places

Tyler Zink

United States

Enters this match at No. 337 in the ATP singles ranking, listed at 185 cm and playing right-handed with a two-handed backhand. Verified age, career-high ranking and preferred-surface data were not available for this card.

Current ranking: #337
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Federico Agustin Gomez

Argentina

The higher-ranked player in this fixture at No. 200 in the ATP singles ranking, listed at 191 cm and playing right-handed with a two-handed backhand. Verified age, career-high ranking and preferred-surface data were not available for this card.

Current ranking: #200
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Sep 2026, 12:44 · Europe/Bucharest

First round at the San Diego Challenger on hard court: Gomez is the higher-ranked favourite (No.200 to No.337), but his hard-court evidence is three matches and he has yet to win a first set on the surface.

Zink's hard-court matches usually stretch past two sets. A Gomez win at 1.73 is priced about right, and 1.8 for him to take the opening set offers little; the 3.8 on Gomez winning 2-1 in sets is the one price worth a look.

Context

Zink, ranked 337, has played by far the larger hard-court sample of the two players.
Those 14 matches averaged 26.8 games and 2.57 sets, and his first sets produced 4.57 games won against 5.93 lost with four tiebreaks. He won only two of the 14 in straight sets, so a short finish has been rare. The counterweight is that a deciding-set habit cuts both ways: four of those three-setters were wins and four were losses.
- 14 hard-court matches tracked from 14 July to 14 September 2026: 6 wins, 8 losses
- Eight of those 14 went to a third set (four 2-1 wins, four 1-2 losses); only two were straight-set wins
- First sets on hard: 4-10, averaging 4.57 games won and 5.93 lost, with four tiebreaks
- Hard-court matches averaged 26.8 total games and 2.57 sets
Gomez is the higher-ranked player at No.200 but brings almost no hard-court evidence into this match.
Across those three matches he averaged 3.67 games won and 6.00 lost in first sets, and 3.00 against 6.00 in second sets, with one tiebreak along the way. His two defeats came in straight sets, so the small sample points to slow starts rather than control. The hard-court aggregate also excludes one retirement, leaving a three-match slice that should not be read as a settled pattern.
- Three hard-court matches tracked from 24 August to 17 September 2026: 1 win, 2 losses
- First sets on hard: 0-3, averaging 3.67 games won and 6.00 lost
- Second sets on hard: 1-2, averaging 3.00 games won and 6.00 lost, with one tiebreak
- The hard-court aggregate excludes one retirement, leaving a very small sample
The 200th-ranked Gomez arrives with the better overall record but the smaller hard-court base.
Nine wins from 14 completed matches is a solid run, yet the surface split narrows it: the hard-court portion is three matches with two defeats. No serve, return or game totals are available for Gomez in this window, so the record rests on results alone. Zink, by contrast, has a 14-match hard-court sample to read from.
- Overall last-15 window: 9 wins, 5 losses in 14 completed matches
- Hard-court subset in the same window: 1 win, 2 losses in 3 matches
- Serve, return and game totals are not available for Gomez in this window
That result is the one hard-court win Gomez carries into the San Diego first round.
It fits the shape of a player who concedes the opening set before working back into the match, consistent with his 0-3 first-set record on the surface in this window. The second-set tiebreak means the match turned on fine margins rather than a clear run of control. It is a single match, and his other two hard-court outings in the same three-match sample were straight-set defeats.
- 15 September 2026: beat Daniel Milavsky (No.312) 4-6, 7-6, 6-2 on hard
- Only hard-court win among the three hard matches tracked for Gomez from 24 August to 17 September 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Federico Agustin Gomez

1.73fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 57.8%

−0.8ppshort

Gomez has the ranking and recent-results edge, while Zink has been losing to much lower-ranked opponents on this surface.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Gomez has the ranking and recent-results edge, while Zink has been losing to much lower-ranked opponents on this surface.
- Gomez is ranked 200, with Zink at 337
- Gomez won 9 of his last 14 completed matches; Zink won 6 of 15
- Zink's hard-court record is 6-8 in 14 matches and he has lost to opponents ranked 549 and 657
- Gomez's hard-court sample is only 3 matches (1-2)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFederico Agustin GomezEstimated chance57%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets on hard have typically needed more than nine games to separate them.
- Zink's hard-court first sets average 10.5 total games
- Gomez's hard-court first sets average 9.67 total games
- Four of Zink's 14 hard-court first sets reached a tiebreak
- Zink's hard-court first-serve rate is 57.8%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Zink's hard-court matches regularly run past 24 games because neither his serve nor his return dominates.
- Zink's 14 hard-court matches averaged 26.8 total games
- Zink's hard-court matches averaged 2.57 sets
- Zink's hard-court first-serve rate is 57.8%, leaving second serves under pressure
- Five of Zink's 14 hard-court matches featured a tiebreak
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 24.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in this window have generally sat around ten games, keeping this line close.
- Zink's hard-court second sets average 10.0 total games
- Gomez's hard-court second sets average 9.0 total games
- One of Zink's 14 hard-court second sets reached a tiebreak
- Gomez's second-set games lost average is 6.0
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Zink rarely wins or loses quickly, and his 2-14 straight-set record on hard points to a deciding set.
- Eight of Zink's 14 hard-court matches went to three sets (scorelines 2-1 four times, 1-2 four times)
- Zink's hard-court matches averaged 2.57 sets
- Zink won only two of 14 hard-court matches in straight sets
- Gomez went three sets once in three hard-court matches
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Zink's first-set record is the weakest part of his hard-court game, and Gomez's ranking edge should show early.
- Zink has won only 4 of 14 first sets on hard
- Gomez lost all three of his hard-court first sets
- Zink's first-set game average is 4.57 won against 5.93 lost
- Gomez is the higher-ranked player at 200
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonFederico Agustin GomezEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Zink has been noticeably stronger in second sets than first sets on this surface.
- Zink won 8 of 14 second sets on hard
- Gomez won 1 of 3 second sets on hard
- Zink's second-set game average is 5.29 won against 4.71 lost
- Zink's hard-court scorelines include four 2-1 wins and four 1-2 losses
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostTyler ZinkEstimated chance51%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Breaks have been common enough for both players that most sets avoid the 7-6 finish.
- Five of Zink's 14 hard-court matches had a tiebreak; nine did not
- Two of Gomez's three hard-court matches had no tiebreak
- Zink's hard-court break-point conversion is 34%
- Gomez's hard-court sets average around 9-10 games
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance66%

Tyler Zink

6W 9L

6-4 3-6 6-3#250Abedallah Shelbayh

6-4 6-2#657Luis Queiroz Miguel

6-3 7-5#104Valentin Royer

7-5 5-7 6-4#767Lucas Andrade Da Silva

6-4 3-6 6-3#172Gauthier Onclin

7-6(2) 5-7 7-6(4)#549Millen Hurrion

7-6(2) 6-4#702Strong Kirchheimer

3-6 6-1 6-3#446James Kent Trotter

6-3 6-3#218Jeff Wolf

3-6 6-3 7-5#460Karl Poling

6-4 6-3#720Nicolas Arseneault

7-6(1) 6-3#168Zhizhen Zhang

6-1 5-7 7-6(2)#179Alexis Galarneau

7-6(1) 6-7(5) 7-6(13)#810Adhithya Ganesan

6-2 6-3#61Arthur Gea

Federico Agustin Gomez

9W 6L

6-3 6-0#166Darwin Blanch

4-6 7-6(2) 6-2#312Daniel Milavsky

6-4 6-2#426Aziz Dougaz

6-2 4-2 ret.#213Maxim Mrva

7-5 6-4#368Daniel Elahi Galan

6-1 6-4#438Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

6-2 7-5#239Henri Squire

6-4 6-2#89Jan Choinski

7-6(4) 2-6 7-5#251Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

6-3 6-3#395Samuele Pieri

6-4 6-2#287Max Schoenhaus

6-3 5-7 6-3#37Matteo Arnaldi

6-3 7-6(4)#489Niels Mcdonald

6-4 6-4#169Andrea Guerrieri

5-7 6-2 6-4#229Raul Brancaccio

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TZTyler ZinkZink

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Federico Agustin GomezGomezFG

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In58.2%+5.8pp64.0%

1st Serve Won71.1%+2.2pp68.9%

2nd Serve Won53.9%+9.2pp44.7%

Aces / Match6.9+3.33.6

Double Faults / Match1.91.7 fewer3.6

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won34.0%+3.5pp37.5%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted33.7%+15.0pp48.7%

Break Pts Saved61.6%+2.4pp64.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won48.9%—49.3%

Serve · 4–1

58.2%1st Serve In+5.8pp64.0%

71.1%1st Serve Won+2.2pp68.9%

53.9%2nd Serve Won+9.2pp44.7%

6.9Aces / Match+3.33.6

1.9Double Faults / Match1.7 fewer3.6

Return · 0–1

34.0%Return Pts Won+3.5pp37.5%

Pressure · 0–2

33.7%Break Pts Converted+15.0pp48.7%

61.6%Break Pts Saved+2.4pp64.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

48.9%Total Pts Won—49.3%

Tyler Zink

Federico Agustin Gomez

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Federico Agustin Gomez

Federico Agustin Gomez 2-1

Federico Agustin Gomez

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Tyler Zink

Federico Agustin Gomez

Stat Battle