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Predictions graded

Jakub VrbaCzechia0Spencer Johnson #451United States2

Sets 2-6 · 4-6Mon 21 Sept 2026, 18:05 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions5–456%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Jakub Vrba

Czechia

Czech player on the ATP tour. No current singles ranking or reliable public profile detail was available for this fixture, so his recent hard-court results are the main context.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Spencer Johnson

United States

American player currently ranked No. 451. Every match in his recent sample was played on hard courts.

Current ranking: #451
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Sep 2026, 11:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Ranked 451 Johnson against unranked Vrba, whose 6-1 hard-court run makes this closer than the ranking suggests.

Johnson is still the likelier winner, but the 1.15 quoted on him asks far more than his form justifies. The one price that rewards a bet is Vrba to win at 4.75, paying for a player who took six of seven second sets in his recent sample.

Context

The second set has been the strongest part of Vrba's short recent run.
The sample is seven matches and two retirements from the same window were excluded from the aggregate, so the 6-1 second-set mark is a lean rather than a settled rate. It matters here because his first sets in that sample went 3-4, meaning any route to a win likely runs through the middle set, and it fits three second-set tiebreaks in those seven matches.
- Vrba's hard-court setEvidence covers 7 matches from 24-30 August 2026.
- He won 6 of 7 second sets, averaging 6.29 games won and 4.43 lost.
- He won 3 of 7 first sets, and three of his seven matches went to a deciding set.
- Two retirements in the same window were excluded from the aggregate.
The opening set has been the steadiest part of Johnson's recent hard-court season.
A 10-5 first-set record with four tiebreaks in those 15 matches points to an opener that is usually close but tends to land his way. Vrba went 3-4 in first sets in his seven-match sample, so the opening set is where the ranking gap shows most clearly. It does not settle the match: Johnson is only 9-6 in second sets, and five of his 15 hard-court matches went to a decider.
- Johnson's hard-court setEvidence covers 15 matches from 14 July to 20 September 2026.
- He won 10 of 15 first sets, averaging 5.6 games won and 4.0 lost.
- Four of his 15 hard-court matches featured a first-set tiebreak.
- He won 9 of 15 second sets, and seven of his 15 matches finished 2-0 in his favour.
Johnson arrives off a completed win rather than a rest day.
The straight-sets result means Johnson has recent competitive court time and no physical problem recorded in that match. It also means his legs carry an extra match: his 15-match hard-court sample averages 96.3 minutes per outing. Vrba's most recent completed match dates to 30 August, so the two arrive with very different recent workloads.
- Johnson beat Jan Kobierski 7-6, 6-3 on 20 September 2026.
- Johnson won 13 games to 9 in the two-set match.
That loss is the one clear blemish in Vrba's short recent window.
It came against a player ranked far below Johnson and is the only 0-2 result in his seven-match hard-court sample, which otherwise produced three 2-1 wins and three 2-0 wins. The three-week gap between 30 August and this match means his form rests on a short, older stretch rather than current results. Two retirements from the same period were excluded from the aggregate.
- Vrba lost 2-6, 6-7 to Bryce Nakashima (ranked 711) on 30 August 2026.
- Vrba won 8 games to 13 in the two-set match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Johnson's higher ranking, stronger serve numbers and first-set record give him a slight advantage.
- Johnson is ranked 451 and is 10-5 on hard courts over 15 matches.
- Johnson wins 75.9% of first-serve points and 52.8% of total points.
- Johnson is 10-5 in first sets on hard courts.
- Johnson has seven 2-0 wins in 15 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSpencer JohnsonEstimated chance55%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets average well above the line, with frequent tiebreaks.
- Vrba's second sets average 10.7 total games on hard courts.
- Johnson's second sets average 10.7 total games.
- Vrba has three second-set tiebreaks in seven hard-court matches.
- Johnson has five second-set tiebreaks in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' hard-court matches average just above the line, with several close sets.
- Vrba's hard-court matches average 23.9 total games.
- Johnson's hard-court matches average 23.6 total games.
- Vrba went to a deciding set in 3 of 7 hard-court matches.
- Johnson went to a deciding set in 5 of 15 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 23.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Johnson's first-set games average just above the line, while Vrba's average is below it.
- Johnson's first sets average 9.6 total games on hard courts.
- Johnson has four first-set tiebreaks in 15 matches.
- Vrba's first sets average 8.6 total games.
- Vrba's recent first sets include a 4-6 and a 2-6 loss.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Johnson's first-set record and game averages are clearly stronger than Vrba's.
- Johnson is 10-5 in first sets on hard courts, winning 67%.
- Johnson averaged 5.6 first-set games won and 4.0 lost.
- Vrba is 3-4 in first sets with a negative game difference.
- Johnson has four first-set tiebreaks in 15 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonSpencer JohnsonEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes are the most frequent outcome in both players' recent hard-court samples.
- Johnson has seven 2-0 wins in 15 hard-court matches.
- Vrba has three 2-0 wins in 7 hard-court matches.
- Johnson's average match length is 2.33 sets.
- Vrba's hard-court scorelines include three 2-1 results but also three 2-0 results.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Vrba's second-set record is much stronger than Johnson's, and he often raises his level after the opener.
- Vrba is 6-1 in second sets on hard courts.
- Vrba averaged 6.3 second-set games won and 4.4 lost.
- Johnson is 9-6 in second sets, winning 60%.
- Vrba won the second set in all six of his hard-court wins.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostJakub VrbaEstimated chance54%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have tiebreak-heavy records, especially in second sets.
- Johnson has eight matches with a tiebreak in 15 hard-court matches.
- Vrba has three matches with a tiebreak in seven hard-court matches.
- Johnson has four first-set and five second-set tiebreaks.
- Vrba has three second-set tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance56%

Jakub Vrba

11W 4L

6-3 3-1 ret.#404Blaise Bicknell

6-2 7-6(6)#711Bryce Nakashima

3-6 6-3 7-5—Oliver Okonkwo

0-6 7-6(5) 6-2#857Ofek Shimanov

4-6 7-6(4) 7-5#644Ryan Colby

6-3 6-4—Alexander Frusina

6-2 6-1—Nicholas Mekhael

6-4 6-4—Alex Fuchs

6-1 6-3#673Pablo Martinez Gomez

4-6 7-6(6) 6-4#540Rudolf Molleker

6-2 2-6 6-1#580Javier Barranco Cosano

6-2 6-1—Matej Kukrika

6-1 6-0#236Andrej Nedic

6-3 3-1 ret.#727Noa Vukadin

6-4 6-3—Dmitry Kopilevich

Spencer Johnson

10W 5L

7-6(3) 6-3—Jan Kobierski

7-6(4) 7-6(6)#600Erik Arutiunian

6-1 6-7(6) 6-1#746Vignesh Gogineni

7-6(5) 4-6 7-6(9)#133Cristian Garin

6-4 6-4#181Andre Ilagan

4-6 7-6(3) 6-3#313Andres Martin

6-3 6-0#254Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-4 6-3#215Moez Echargui

6-1 6-7(4) 7-6(2)#644Ryan Colby

6-1 7-5#760Matthew Forbes

6-2 6-4#112Chak Lam Coleman Wong

6-7(5) 6-3 6-2#185Bernard Tomic

6-3 7-6(2)#112Chak Lam Coleman Wong

6-2 6-4#246Jeff Wolf

6-1 6-4#187Remy Bertola

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JVJakub VrbaVrba

Last 15

1–8

9 core stats · 0 even

Spencer JohnsonJohnsonSJ

Spencer Johnson carries the stronger recent form — Jakub Vrba's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In13/15 · 15/1552.3%+9.7pp62.0%

1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/1570.7%+5.2pp75.9%

2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/1550.3%+2.1pp52.4%

Aces / Match13/15 · 15/155.7+1.67.3

Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/154.31.7 fewer2.6

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/1536.8%+2.0pp38.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/1541.6%+1.3pp42.9%

Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/1565.6%+6.7pp58.9%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/1549.4%+3.4pp52.8%

Serve · 0–5

52.3%1st Serve In13/15 · 15/15+9.7pp62.0%

70.7%1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+5.2pp75.9%

50.3%2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+2.1pp52.4%

5.7Aces / Match13/15 · 15/15+1.67.3

4.3Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/151.7 fewer2.6

Return · 0–1

36.8%Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+2.0pp38.8%

Pressure · 1–1

41.6%Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/15+1.3pp42.9%

65.6%Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/15+6.7pp58.9%

Points · 0–1

49.4%Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+3.4pp52.8%