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Predictions graded

Nicolas Garcia LongoArgentina0Tomas Farjat #817Argentina2

Sets 6-7 · 4-6Sun 20 Sept 2026, 13:05 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions10–377%

Edges5–183%

Player Profiles

Nicolas Garcia Longo

Argentina

Right-handed with a two-handed backhand and listed at 175 cm. Reliable public age and ranking details are limited.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Tomas Farjat

Argentina

Farjat, 25, is a right-hander whose preferred surface is clay. His ATP career-high ranking was No. 363 on 28 August 2023.

Current ranking: #817
Peak ranking: #363 · 2023
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 19:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Farjat is the better clay player and the likelier winner, probably in two sets, though his recent winning margins are thin and his recorded matches stop on 28 July while Garcia Longo played on 11 September.

Three quoted prices hold up: Under 24.5 games at 3, Under 2.5 sets at 1.6 and Garcia Longo to win at 4.25. Farjat at 1.18, and 1.65 for a straight-sets win, do not justify those odds.

Context

Garcia Longo has started slowly throughout this clay sample, which shapes how the opening of this qualifying match is likely to unfold.
Winning only three of 14 opening sets, with no tiebreak in any of those 14 clay matches, tells you his sets are usually settled well before the closing games. Against Farjat that points to the first set going to the higher-ranked player, though it says nothing about whether Garcia Longo can turn a match around later, since his second-set record is better than his first.
- Clay set evidence: 14 completed matches, 3 June to 11 September 2026
- Set 1: 3 wins, 11 losses; 2.8 games won and 5.2 lost per opening set
- No tiebreaks across the 14 clay matches
Farjat is only 6-7 on clay in this sample, so the split between his first and second sets is more revealing than the overall record.
The second set is where Farjat has separated himself on clay, and Garcia Longo has won just five of his 14 second sets. Five straight-sets wins out of six explain why a 2-0 finish is the likeliest single scoreline, but Farjat also went to a deciding set in six of these 13 matches, so the two-set route is far from automatic.
- 13 completed clay matches, 1 February to 28 July 2026
- Set 1 record 7-6; set 2 record 9-4
- Scorelines: five wins 2-0, one win 2-1, five losses 1-2, two losses 0-2; four matches contained a tiebreak
- Two retired matches are excluded from this clay set sample
Garcia Longo's recent clay results are mostly one-sided defeats with a single clear exception.
The 12-4 win shows he can handle a similarly ranked opponent on this surface. It falls between 3-12 defeats to Lorenzo Gagliardo on 25 August and to Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto on 11 September, so it reads as a one-off rather than the start of a run, and the rest of the sample is a 5-9 clay record.
- 8 September 2026: beat Ignacio Antonio Becerra Otarola (ranked 860) 6-1, 6-3, 12-4 in games on clay
- The win is the only straight-sets result among the six most recent Garcia Longo matches in the record
The two clay samples cover different windows, which is worth keeping in mind when comparing their recent form.
A gap in the record is not evidence of injury or lost fitness; it only means the available results for Farjat stop on 28 July. It does mean Garcia Longo's September results are on the board and Farjat's are not, so the case for the ranked player rests on clay form from February to July.
- 28 July 2026: lost to Tim Handel (ranked 668) 6-7, 2-6, 8-13 in games on clay
- Latest date in Farjat's match record: 28 July 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Farjat has the better clay results and wins a clear majority of first and second sets, so he starts ahead of a lower-ranked opponent.
- Clay record 6-7 over 13 completed matches; set 1 run 7-6 and set 2 run 9-4
- Ranked 817, facing an opponent with no current ranking
- Five of his six clay wins came in straight sets
- Average 24.2 total games per clay match
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTomas FarjatEstimated chance66%

Games5 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Garcia Longo loses the majority of games on clay, so Farjat winning more games than his opponent is the likely outcome.
- Garcia Longo has won only 40.5% of clay games (100 of 247)
- Farjat's six most recent completed clay matches produced 70 games won and 71 lost
- Farjat's win share of total points on clay is limited but his opponent's is 47.1%
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonTomas Farjat -0.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 3.00
The read
Garcia Longo's clay matches are short, and most of his losses come by wide game margins, keeping the total low.
- Garcia Longo's clay matches average 17.6 total games
- Only 2 of his 14 clay matches reached a third set
- Combined projection is roughly 21 games
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 24.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
A two-game cushion for Farjat is well supported by Garcia Longo's heavy game deficits on clay.
- Garcia Longo's clay game win rate is 40.5%
- Four of Garcia Longo's five recent clay matches were lost by 8 or 9 games
- Farjat's straight-set clay wins came by margins of +4 games
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonTomas Farjat -1.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets involving Garcia Longo tend to be short because he often wins few games in them.
- Garcia Longo's second sets average 8.6 total games
- He averages 3.5 games won in second sets
- Farjat's second sets average 9.6 total games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Farjat's typical winning margin sits around four games, so a three-game cushion is a reasonable but not strong proposition.
- Three of Farjat's last six completed clay matches were won by exactly +4 games
- Garcia Longo's clay game percentage is 40.5%
- Garcia Longo lost four recent clay matches by 8 or 9 games
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonTomas Farjat -2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Garcia Longo's first sets are usually short and one-sided, which pulls the opening-set total down.
- Garcia Longo's first sets average 8.0 total games
- He has played no tiebreaks in 14 clay matches
- Farjat's first sets average 10.2 total games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Staying within three games looks slightly more likely than not given Farjat's modest recent winning margins.
- Farjat has not won a completed clay match by more than four games in the six most recent
- Garcia Longo won 100 of 247 clay games
- Garcia Longo's expected game share is around 40%
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonNicolas Garcia Longo +3.5Estimated chance53%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Garcia Longo's clay matches usually finish in two sets, which pushes the match towards a straight-sets finish.
- Garcia Longo went to a third set in 2 of 14 clay matches
- Farjat's clay average is 2.46 sets per match
- Nine of Garcia Longo's 14 clay matches ended 0-2
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Second sets are Farjat's strongest part of the match on clay, and Garcia Longo's second-set record is clearly negative.
- Won 9 of 13 second sets on clay
- Opponent has won 5 of 14 second sets on clay
- Opponent averages 3.5 games won per second set
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonTomas FarjatEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Farjat has a winning record in opening sets while Garcia Longo has started poorly, often losing the first set by a wide margin.
- Won 7 of 13 opening sets on clay
- Opponent has won only 3 of 14 opening sets on clay
- Opponent averages 2.8 games won per opening set
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonTomas FarjatEstimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.65
The read
Farjat tends to win without dropping a set and Garcia Longo tends to lose in straight sets, so this is the single most likely scoreline.
- Five of his six clay wins were in straight sets
- Opponent has lost 9 of 14 clay matches 0-2
- Farjat's straight-set wins include scorelines of 13-9 and 12-8 in games
BetBugs · Set BettingwonTomas Farjat 2-0Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Garcia Longo's clay sets are usually settled well before a tiebreak, making a tiebreak-free match the likely outcome.
- No tiebreaks in Garcia Longo's 14 completed clay matches
- Farjat has played tiebreaks in 4 of 13 clay matches
- Garcia Longo's first sets average 8.0 total games
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance83%

Nicolas Garcia Longo

5W 10L

6-2 6-1#893Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto

6-1 6-3#860Ignacio Antonio Becerra Otarola

6-4 7-5—Felipe De Dios

6-0 6-3#836Lorenzo Gagliardo

6-1 6-3#756Rodrigo Alujas

7-5 6-0—Vicente Jose Benitez

6-1 6-4#389Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

6-1 6-3—Facundo Pereyra

6-3 6-3—Jesse De Jager

6-0 6-0#505Stefan Palosi

1-6 7-5 6-2#790Rares Teodor Pieleanu

6-2 6-1#641Stefan Adrian Andreescu

6-4 6-3—Antoni Fabre

6-3 6-3#685Franco Ribero

3-6 6-3 6-1—Alexey Dubinin

Tomas Farjat

6W 9L

7-6(3) 6-2#668Tim Handel

6-2 4-6 6-3#602Jamie Mackenzie

4-6 6-2 4-3 ret.#869Samuel Alejandro Linde Palacios

6-4 7-5—Valentin Garay

6-4 7-5—Bruno Oliveira

6-4 4-6 6-3—Diego Jarry Fillol

6-4 6-4—Victor Braga

6-3 4-6 7-6(5)#713Herman Hoeyeraal

6-4 3-6 6-1—Diego Jarry Fillol

6-4 6-2—Victor Alvares De Castro Rocha

6-1 6-2#565Maximo Zeitune

6-1 ret.#347Carlos Maria Zarate

7-6(5) 6-4—Mateo Del Pino

6-4 4-6 7-5#565Maximo Zeitune

6-7(6) 6-2 6-1#228Guido Ivan Justo

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

NLNicolas Garcia LongoLongo

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Tomas FarjatFarjatTF

Tomas Farjat carries the stronger recent form — Nicolas Garcia Longo's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In13/15 · 15/1565.9%+9.9pp56.0%

1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/1556.7%+16.1pp72.8%

2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/1543.4%+1.6pp45.0%

Aces / Match13/15 · 15/151.2+5.36.5

Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/152.90.8 fewer3.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/1542.1%+7.3pp34.8%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/1541.6%—42.1%

Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/1550.0%+12.7pp62.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/1547.2%+1.0pp48.2%

Serve · 2–3

65.9%1st Serve In13/15 · 15/15+9.9pp56.0%

56.7%1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+16.1pp72.8%

43.4%2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+1.6pp45.0%

1.2Aces / Match13/15 · 15/15+5.36.5

2.9Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/150.8 fewer3.7

Return · 1–0

42.1%Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+7.3pp34.8%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

41.6%Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/15—42.1%

50.0%Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/15+12.7pp62.7%

Points · 0–1

47.2%Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+1.0pp48.2%

Nicolas Garcia Longo

Tomas Farjat

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Under 24.5

Nicolas Garcia Longo

Tomas Farjat -0.5

Tomas Farjat

Tomas Farjat 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games5 of 7 landed

Sets4 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Nicolas Garcia Longo

Tomas Farjat

Stat Battle