FranceSaint-Tropez - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Mickael Kaouk #950France1Justin Boulais #403Canada2

Sets 7-5 · 3-6 · 2-6Sun 20 Sept 2026, 08:10 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions5–456%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJustin Boulais · 547 places

Mickael Kaouk

France

Kaouk, 18, is a right-hander listed at 175 cm. His singles ranking was 950 on 18 September 2026.

Current ranking: #950
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 18
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Justin Boulais

Canada

Boulais, 24, is a left-hander with a one-handed backhand and is listed at 183 cm. His current ranking is 403 and his career high is No. 363.

Current ranking: #403
Peak ranking: #363
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 11:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Boulais is the rightful favorite at 63% on superior serve numbers (69.6% vs 63.4% first-serve points won) and stronger opposition, but his 1.33 price implies 75% and offers clear negative value.

The better angles are tiebreak Yes (~57%), over 6.5 double faults (60%), over 9.5 first-set games (60%) and under 5.5 aces (62%), with Kaouk +3.5 a live underdog look given Boulais's 38.4% return points won.

Context

Boulais, 403, is the left-hander here with a one-handed backhand and a hard-court base built on 82 tour-level hard wins; Kaouk is an unranked French player whose 2026 has been split between clay and indoor hard.
The 15-match window favours Kaouk on results (8-7 against Boulais's 5-10), but the level behind those numbers runs the other way: Boulais's recent defeats came to Bonzi (No. 92), Walton (No. 102) and Monday (No. 298), and he beat Zhizhen Zhang (No. 152) in July. Kaouk's September wins were against an unranked opponent and No. 769 Ponchet, and he lost his latest match 0-6 3-6 to No. 321 Matusevich.
- Kaouk has won 8 of 15 tracked matches (53.3%) and Boulais 5 of 15 (33.3%); both samples cover all 15 matches.
- Boulais's recent losses include Bonzi (No. 92), Walton (No. 102), Holmgren (No. 241) and Monday (No. 298), and he beat Zhizhen Zhang (No. 152) 6-2 7-6(6) on 13 July.
- Kaouk's September wins came against unranked Nicolas Ifi and No. 769 Matt Ponchet; his last two defeats were to No. 539 Zahraj (2-6 4-6) and No. 321 Matusevich (0-6 3-6 on 15 September).
Boulais, 403 and 183cm, is left-handed with a one-handed backhand and a serve that produced 3.5 aces a match in the tracked window. Kaouk, unranked, serves with far less power (0.9 aces a match) and does most of his work from the back of the court.
Boulais wins 69.6% of first-serve points and saves 59.2% of break points, so Kaouk's return game (44.9% of return points won, 46.7% of break points converted) is his clearest route to pressure. Boulais's own return numbers are the weakest part of his profile at 38.4% of return points and 37.8% of break points converted, so the exchange does not point only one way.
- Boulais averages 3.5 aces and wins 69.6% of first-serve points; Kaouk averages 0.9 aces and wins 63.4% of first-serve points.
- Kaouk wins 44.9% of return points and converts 46.7% of break points; Boulais wins 38.4% of return points and converts 37.8% of break points.
- Both leak on second serve: Boulais at 4.4 double faults a match and 51.7% of second-serve points won, Kaouk at 3.5 double faults and 44.8%.
Four tracked indoor-hard matches inside Kaouk's last-15 window produced a 2-2 record and 45.9% of games won, with 53.7% of first serves in and 38.9% of second-serve points won. His 11-match clay sample from the same period reads better (53.4% of games won, 67.4% of first serves in), but four matches is too small a base for a firm surface conclusion.
- Inside Kaouk's last-15 window, his indoor-hard split covers four matches: 2-2, 45.9% of games won, 53.7% of first serves in, 38.9% of second-serve points won.
- His 11-match clay split in the same window shows 53.4% of games won, 67.4% of first serves in and 46.0% of return points won.
- Kaouk's 2026 surface record lists 7-2 on hard and 2-5 on indoor hard, and St. Tropez is played on hard courts.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Boulais holds the decisive serve/return structural edge (stronger first- and second-serve points won) and has been competing against markedly higher-quality opposition, which outweighs Kaouk's marginally better raw recent win-loss record built at ITF level.
- Boulais last-15 window: 5-10 overall, but against far stronger fields (losses to Bonzi #92, Walton #102; wins over Zhizhen Zhang #152 and Yuta Shimizu #399 in Jul 2026).
- Boulais last-15 serve structure: 69.6% first-serve points won and 51.7% second-serve points won vs Kaouk's 63.4% / 44.8% (both 15 matches tracked).
- Kaouk last-15: 8-7 overall but only 2-2 on indoor hard (45.9% games won, 4 matches tracked); he lost his two most recent hard matches 0-6 3-6 to #321 (15 Sep 2026) and 2-6 4-6 to #539 (11 Sep 2026).
- Boulais is ranked No.403 with 238 career matches (51.3% win) and 30 hard-court wins in 2026; Kaouk is unranked with 45 career matches (51.1% win).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJustin BoulaisEstimated chance63%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreak-heavy first-set patterns in both last-15 windows (Boulais especially) point to a long opening set on this hard court.
- Boulais's last-15 opening sets reached 10+ games in 10 of 15 matches, including four 7-6 first sets since 13 Jul 2026.
- Kaouk produced a 7-6 first set on 8 Sep 2026 (6-4 7-6 vs Ponchet) and a 6-7 opener on clay in Aug 2026.
- Boulais's 51.7% second-serve points won and Kaouk's 44.8% mean both players concede return chances, extending opening sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Boulais's game-heavy match profile with both players' high double-fault and breakable-serve rates suggests a total creeping past the low-20s line.
- Boulais's last-15 matches average 23.1 total games (347 games / 15 matches) with 113.0 minutes average duration.
- Kaouk's last-15 matches average 19.8 total games (297 / 15) with 102.4 minutes average duration.
- Both players' hard-court sets frequently go to tiebreaks, with Boulais recording at least one tiebreak set in roughly two-thirds of recent matches.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Boulais is the rightful favorite but his weak return game (38.4% return points won) and recent losses to a sub-600 opponent make a four-game spread risky, favoring the underdog on the handicap.
- Kaouk's last-15 return points won (44.9%) is higher than Boulais's (38.4%), giving him counter-punching value.
- Boulais has lost twice to No.605 Matisse Bobichon in Sep 2026, showing he does not dominate lower-ranked opponents.
- Kaouk's last-15 break-point conversion (46.7%, 56/120) exceeds Boulais's 37.8% (37/98).
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMickael Kaouk +3.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Boulais's superior serving (69.6% first-serve points won last 15) plus Kaouk's slow hard-court starts support the first-listed set going to the stronger server.
- Boulais opened with a first-set score of 10+ games in 10 of his last 15 matches, and won or reached a tiebreak in the opening set repeatedly in Sep 2026 (7-6 vs Arribage 13 Sep, 7-6 vs Bobichon 14 Sep).
- Kaouk's recent opening sets on hard have been poor: 0-6 vs Matusevich (15 Sep 2026) and 2-6 vs Zahraj (11 Sep 2026).
- Kaouk's indoor-hard last-15 profile shows a 38.9% second-serve points won rate (4 matches tracked), giving Boulais early return opportunities.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostJustin BoulaisEstimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
If Boulais takes the opener his serve/return edge (69.6% vs 63.4% first-serve points won) usually carries into set 2, though the narrow overall points-won gap keeps confidence low.
- Boulais closed out straight-set wins in his last 15 with second sets of 6-2 (13 Sep 2026), 6-3 (6 Sep 2026) and 6-3 (14 Jul 2026).
- Kaouk's set-2 losses on hard this month were 3-6 vs Matusevich and 4-6 vs Zahraj (Sep 2026).
- Both players sit near 51% total points won in the last-15 window (Kaouk 50.8%, Boulais 49.7%), so the edge is narrow.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonJustin BoulaisEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent-window set-count data for both players shows short, two-set outcomes dominate, so the Under 2.5 line is favored despite the competitive matchup.
- Only 4 of Boulais's last 15 matches (27%) and 3 of Kaouk's last 15 (20%) reached a deciding set.
- Kaouk's average match duration in the last 15 is 102.4 minutes with 19.8 total games per match.
- Boulais's last-15 set record is 14-20 (41.2%), reflecting straight-set losses rather than long three-set battles.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Very low ace production from Kaouk (0.9/match) plus Boulais's modest 3.5/match rate makes a 5.5 ace line a comfortable Under.
- Kaouk last-15: 0.9 aces per match (14 aces in 15 matches, 953 serves tracked).
- Boulais last-15: 3.5 aces per match (52 in 15 matches), dropping to 3.0 per match on indoor hard (only 2 matches tracked).
- Neither player exceeds a 67% first-serve-in rate in the recent window (Kaouk 63.9%, Boulais 56.7%), limiting free points.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players carry high, well-covered double-fault rates in the last-15 window, so the combined fault total should clear 6.5.
- Boulais last-15: 4.4 double faults per match (66 in 15), including 4.8 per match on hard (13 matches tracked).
- Kaouk last-15: 3.5 double faults per match (53 in 15), rising to 4.3 per match on indoor hard (4 matches tracked, 17 DF).
- Kaouk's career double-fault tally (102 in 45 matches) and Boulais's (716 in 238) confirm a persistent fault-prone profile.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both recent windows show tiebreak-heavy set patterns, and equally leaky second serves suggest at least one set reaching 6-6.
- Boulais featured at least one tiebreak set in roughly 10 of his last 15 matches, including 7-6(0) vs Arribage (13 Sep 2026) and 7-6(6) vs Bobichon (14 Sep 2026).
- Kaouk had tiebreak sets in 5 of his last 15 matches (e.g. 6-4 7-6 vs Ponchet, 8 Sep 2026).
- Boulais's 56.7% first-serve-in rate and Kaouk's 38.9% second-serve points won on indoor hard keep games close on serve.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance57%

Mickael Kaouk

8W 7L

6-0 6-3#321Anton Matusevich

6-2 6-4#539Patrick Zahraj

6-4 6-2—Nicolas Ifi

6-4 7-6(7)#769Matt Ponchet

7-6(5) 6-2—Lars Goran Verwerft

6-3 6-4#382Laurent Lokoli

6-2 6-0—Justas Trainauskas

6-2 6-3#259Marvin Moeller

7-5 3-6 7-6(3)#334Dali Blanch

6-7(8) 7-5 6-3#653Menelaos Efstathiou

6-0 6-0—Filiberto Fumagalli

6-0 6-1—Arthur Bonnaud

6-3 2-0 ret.—Yoshka Sborowsky

6-7(4) 6-4 6-2#281Matteo Martineau

6-1 6-4#433Maxime Chazal

Justin Boulais

5W 10L

7-6(6) 6-3#605Matisse Bobichon

7-6(0) 6-2—Theo Arribage

3-6 7-6(5) 6-3#605Matisse Bobichon

6-0 6-3—Matis Roche

7-6(4) 6-3#92Benjamin Bonzi

7-5 7-6(4)#102Adam Walton

6-3 6-3—Connor Church

5-7 6-2 7-5#298Johannus Monday

6-1 6-3#241August Holmgren

7-5 6-1#399Yuta Shimizu

6-2 7-6(6)#152Zhizhen Zhang

7-6(4) 6-0#452Kenta Miyoshi

6-4 6-2#599Millen Hurrion

6-7(8) 6-4 7-6(3)#350Tung-Lin Wu

7-6(2) 4-6 6-3#254Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MKMickael KaoukKaouk

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Justin BoulaisBoulaisJB

Mickael Kaouk carries the stronger recent form — Justin Boulais's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In63.9%+7.2pp56.7%

1st Serve Won63.4%+6.2pp69.6%

2nd Serve Won44.8%+6.9pp51.7%

Aces / Match0.9+2.63.5

Double Faults / Match3.50.9 fewer4.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won44.9%+6.5pp38.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted46.7%+8.9pp37.8%

Break Pts Saved53.6%+5.6pp59.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.8%+1.1pp49.7%

Serve · 2–3

63.9%1st Serve In+7.2pp56.7%

63.4%1st Serve Won+6.2pp69.6%

44.8%2nd Serve Won+6.9pp51.7%

0.9Aces / Match+2.63.5

3.5Double Faults / Match0.9 fewer4.4

Return · 1–0

44.9%Return Pts Won+6.5pp38.4%

Pressure · 1–1

46.7%Break Pts Converted+8.9pp37.8%

53.6%Break Pts Saved+5.6pp59.2%

Points · 1–0

50.8%Total Pts Won+1.1pp49.7%