SingaporeWTA SingaporeFinished

Predictions graded

Aoi Ito #236Japan2Sofya Lansere #270Russia0

Sets 6-4 · 6-4Sat 19 Sept 2026, 04:45 Predictions gradedQ1I.hard

Predictions4–450%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAoi Ito · 34 places

Aoi Ito

Japan

Ito reached a career-high No. 82 in August 2025 after making her Top 100 debut that May. Official ITF data lists hard as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #236
Peak ranking: #82 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Sofya Lansere

Russia

Born 29 September 2000 and plays right-handed.

Current ranking: #270
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Sep 2026, 15:03 · Europe/Bucharest

Aoi Ito is a marginal hard-court favorite over clay-only Sofya Lansere, backed by surface fit and long-term hard-court win totals despite a modest recent record.

The strongest angles are over 8.5 total double faults and under 6.5 total aces, with Ito match winner at medium confidence and a lean toward a longer, break-heavy match.

Context

Ito, 372 in the world, is a right-hander whose career has been built almost entirely on hard courts, with 157 of her 193 career match wins coming on the surface.
Her recent hard-court sample of 15 matches shows a 7-8 record and 50.2% of games won, so she arrives without a clear winning pattern. The 46.7% match win rate and 42.9% sets won suggest she has been losing more sets than she wins, which puts her under pressure in a best-of-three qualifying format.
- Last 15 hard-court matches: 7 wins, 8 losses (46.7% record), 15 of 35 sets won (42.9%).
- Games won: 156 of 311 (50.2%) across the same 15-match hard-court window.
- Recent form includes losses to players ranked 163, 191, 101 and 112, with wins mostly against lower-ranked opponents.
Lansere, 266 in the world, is a right-hander with 93 career wins on indoor hard courts, her most successful surface by career wins.
Her last 15 matches were all on clay, where she won 33.3% and only 46.3% of games. The switch to indoor hard courts may suit her better given her 9-5 hard-court record in 2026 and her career indoor hard-court win count, but the recent sample offers no direct evidence of current hard-court form.
- Last 15 matches all on clay: 5 wins, 10 losses (33.3%), 14 of 36 sets won (38.9%).
- 2026 hard-court record: 9 wins, 5 losses; 2026 clay record: 10 wins, 13 losses.
- Career indoor hard-court wins: 93, the highest of any surface in her career.
Ito and Lansere both rely on first serves but have struggled with double faults and second-serve effectiveness in their recent windows.
Ito's 5.7 double faults per match and 40.1% second-serve points won, alongside Lansere's 6.9 double faults and 35% second-serve points won, mean both players give opponents regular looks at second serves. In a qualifying match where breaks of serve can decide sets, this shared weakness may lead to frequent breaks and long games.
- Ito last 15 matches: 5.7 double faults per match, 40.1% second-serve points won (146/364).
- Lansere last 15 matches: 6.9 double faults per match, 35% second-serve points won (144/412).
- Both players' first-serve points won are also modest: Ito 62.1%, Lansere 56.7%.
Ito and Lansere meet in qualifying, not the main draw, at the WTA 500 indoor hard-court event in Singapore.
Qualifying means a shorter, tighter path: the winner still needs another match to reach the main draw, so both players carry the same scheduling load into this one. The indoor hard court removes weather as a factor and rewards clean ball striking from the first point.
- Singapore, 19 September 2026: the pair is listed on Court 1 in qualifying on a hard court.
ConfirmedSources checked 19 Sep 2026, 15:03 · Europe/BucharestIto vs. Lansere | Qualifying Singapore Tennis Open presented by BNP Paribas 2026 | WTA Officialwww.wtatennis.com · 19 Sep 2026Singapore 411: Dates, draws, schedule, prize money and morewww.wtatennis.com · 18 Sep 2026

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ito holds the surface-fit and recent-window edge on hard courts while Lansere arrives from a clay-only block with a 5-10 last-15 record, making Ito the marginal favorite despite the ranking gap.
- Ito last-15 hard-court record 7-8 (46.7%) with 50.2% games won and 50.6% total points won across 15 tracked matches.
- Lansere last-15 window is entirely clay (5-10, 46.3% games, 48.5% points) and she has not played a hard-court match in this window.
- Ito 2026 hard-court 13-16 vs Lansere 2026 hard-court 9-5, but Lansere's recent form is clay-only and she lost 4 of her last 5.
- Career hard-court wins: Ito 157 vs Lansere 74, a large long-term surface baseline gap.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAoi ItoEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Weak second-serve numbers on both sides and Lansere's recent tendency toward long three-setters support a higher game total in a Bo3 qualifying match.
- Ito last-15 average match duration 95.2 minutes with 50.2% games won, indicating competitive sets.
- Lansere last-15 average duration 114 minutes and 46.3% games won, with multiple three-set matches.
- Lansere's last 5 include a 4-6 6-2 7-6(3) and a 6-2 4-6 6-1, both long.
- Both players have sub-50% second-serve points won (Ito 40.1%, Lansere 35.0%), pointing to frequent breaks and longer sets.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ito's superior recent games-won and points-won rates plus the surface mismatch give her a marginal handicap edge, but the small gap keeps confidence low.
- Ito last-15 games won 50.2% vs Lansere 46.3%.
- Ito last-15 total points won 50.6% vs Lansere 48.5%.
- Lansere's last-15 window is clay-only, a surface mismatch for this indoor hard court.
- Ito has 157 career hard-court wins vs Lansere's 74.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAoi Ito -2.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ito's stronger first-serve points won and higher first-set conversion give her a slight edge to take the opener, though the thin margin keeps confidence low.
- Ito career firstSetWinConversion 89% vs Lansere 85%.
- Ito last-15 first-serve points won 62.1% vs Lansere 56.7%.
- Lansere lost the opening set in 4 of her last 5 matches (clay).
- Ito won the first set in 3 of her last 5 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAoi ItoEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players generate very few aces in the recent window, so an under on total aces is strongly supported.
- Ito last-15 aces per match 0.5 (7 in 15 matches).
- Lansere last-15 aces per match 1.2 (18 in 15 matches).
- Combined recent average is roughly 1.7 aces per match.
- Neither player has a high ace profile in career stats relative to matches played.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players post high double-fault rates in the last-15 window, making an over on combined double faults well supported.
- Ito last-15 double faults per match 5.7 (86 in 15 matches).
- Lansere last-15 double faults per match 6.9 (103 in 15 matches).
- Combined recent average is roughly 12.6 double faults per match.
- Lansere career double faults 2312 across 415 matches, a high long-term rate.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance58%

Prediction history

Aoi Ito has converted only 2 of 5 recent winner projections into wins

Aoi Ito fulfilled 2 of 5 recent matchWinner projections, a 40% rate. The three misses were all subject losses, with no draws or unresolved results. The current 58% projection sits within the historical range of 55% to 65%, and the missed average probability of 59.7% was close to the matched average of 61.5%, so the misses were not confined to lower-confidence projections.

Recent evidence for Aoi Ito5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·WTA Memphis

#195Yexin Ma2-1#233Aoi Ito

BetBugsAoi Ito to win·62%

Missed

26 Jul 2026

WTA Memphis

#195Yexin Ma2-1#233Aoi Ito

Aoi Ito to win

62%probability

Yexin Ma won

Missed

25 Jul·WTA Memphis

#744Astra Sharma1-2#233Aoi Ito

BetBugsAoi Ito to win·58%

Matched

25 Jul 2026

WTA Memphis

#744Astra Sharma1-2#233Aoi Ito

Aoi Ito to win

58%probability

Aoi Ito won

Matched

18 Jul·WTA Prague

#246Aoi Ito0-2#217Gabriela Knutson

BetBugsAoi Ito to win·55%

Missed

18 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#246Aoi Ito0-2#217Gabriela Knutson

Aoi Ito to win

55%probability

Gabriela Knutson won

Missed

12 Jul·WTA Athens

#228Aoi Ito2-0#389Yasmine Mansouri

BetBugsAoi Ito to win·65%

Matched

12 Jul 2026

WTA Athens

#228Aoi Ito2-0#389Yasmine Mansouri

Aoi Ito to win

65%probability

Aoi Ito won

Matched

5 May·WTA Jiujiang

#232Aoi Ito1-2#305Lizette Cabrera

BetBugsAoi Ito to win·62%

Missed

5 May 2026

WTA Jiujiang

#232Aoi Ito1-2#305Lizette Cabrera

Aoi Ito to win

62%probability

Lizette Cabrera won

Missed

Aoi Ito

7W 8L

7-6(4) 6-2#163Gabriela Andrea Knutson

6-4 6-3#191Anastasia Gasanova

6-4 6-1#356Angelina Voloshchuk

6-3 1-6 6-2#390Reese Brantmeier

6-1 3-6 6-1#161Linda Fruhvirtova

6-2 6-4#101Oksana Selekhmeteva

6-3 6-4#112Harriet Dart

6-1 6-1#90Solana Sierra

6-3 6-4#214Katherine Sebov

6-0 6-7(8) 6-4#101Oksana Selekhmeteva

7-6(3) 2-6 6-0#174Yexin Ma

6-3 3-6 7-5#894Astra Sharma

6-4 6-4#163Gabriela Andrea Knutson

6-2 6-1#81Alina Korneeva

6-4 6-0#417Yasmine Mansouri

Sofya Lansere

5W 10L

6-2 6-2#264Aurora Zantedeschi

6-2 4-6 6-1#297Lisa Zaar

5-2 ret.#883Danka Kovinic

4-6 6-2 7-6(3)#297Lisa Zaar

6-1 6-1—Andjela Colic

6-4 6-2#198Barbora Palicova

7-6(4) 6-4#360Margaux Rouvroy

2-6 6-4 6-4#216Irene Burillo

6-1 3-6 6-1#158Lola Radivojevic

6-2 7-6(4)#151Elizara Yaneva

4-6 6-1 6-4#304Elena Malygina

6-2 6-0#201Rositsa Dencheva

6-4 1-6 6-4#343Jenny Lim

4-6 6-1 7-6(3)#564Yara Bartashevich

7-6(1) 6-3#229Francesca Curmi

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AIAoi ItoIto

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Sofya LansereLansereSL

Aoi Ito carries the stronger recent form — Sofya Lansere's route runs through return.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In65.8%+2.9pp62.9%

1st Serve Won62.1%+5.4pp56.7%

2nd Serve Won40.1%+5.1pp35.0%

Aces / Match0.5+0.71.2

Double Faults / Match5.71.2 fewer6.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won46.3%+2.1pp48.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted50.4%+2.1pp48.3%

Break Pts Saved53.7%+1.3pp55.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.6%+2.1pp48.5%

Serve · 4–1

65.8%1st Serve In+2.9pp62.9%

62.1%1st Serve Won+5.4pp56.7%

40.1%2nd Serve Won+5.1pp35.0%

0.5Aces / Match+0.71.2

5.7Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer6.9

Return · 0–1

46.3%Return Pts Won+2.1pp48.4%

Pressure · 1–1

50.4%Break Pts Converted+2.1pp48.3%

53.7%Break Pts Saved+1.3pp55.0%

Points · 1–0

50.6%Total Pts Won+2.1pp48.5%