Phan Thiet - VietnamFinished

Predictions graded

Taiyo Yamanaka #830Japan0Ryuki Matsuda #764Japan2

Sets 4-6 · 4-6Mon 14 Sept 2026, 05:00 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions7–188%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRyuki Matsuda · 66 places

Taiyo Yamanaka

Japan

Yamanaka, 25, is the right-hander with a one-handed backhand in this matchup. Hard is listed as his preferred surface; his highest ranking was No. 745 in June 2025.

Current ranking: #830
Peak ranking: #745 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Ryuki Matsuda

Japan

Matsuda, 26, is the right-hander in this matchup. He reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 468 in August 2025.

Current ranking: #764
Peak ranking: #468 · 2025
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 157 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 15:35 · Europe/Bucharest

Ryuki Matsuda is favored over Taiyo Yamanaka based on superior recent form, hard-court record, and a 2-1 head-to-head lead.

Matsuda's stronger serve and first-set performance make him the likely winner, but the odds offer no value. The best betting angle is Matsuda to win, with a low-confidence lean on the over 21.5 total games.

Context

Matsuda, ranked 764, has been in strong form on hard courts, winning 11 of his last 15 matches. Yamanaka, ranked 830, has struggled with a 7-8 record in the same span.
Matsuda's recent form is clearly better, with a 73.3% win rate compared to Yamanaka's 46.7%. Matsuda has also beaten opponents ranked as high as 305, while Yamanaka's wins have come mostly against lower-ranked players. This suggests Matsuda is more likely to control the match, though Yamanaka's recent win over Egor Agafonov shows he can compete.
- Matsuda's last 15 record: 11-4 (73.3% win rate).
- Yamanaka's last 15 record: 7-8 (46.7% win rate).
- Matsuda beat Yanki Erel (ranked 305) and Shunsuke Mitsui (ranked 540) in September.
- Yamanaka's recent wins include Egor Agafonov (ranked 670) and Nikita Ianin (unranked).
Matsuda and Yamanaka have played three times, all on hard courts. Matsuda won in 2024 and 2023, while Yamanaka won in February 2023.
Matsuda's 2-1 head-to-head edge includes a straight-sets win in their most recent meeting in June 2024. However, the sample is small and the matches are spread over time, so the edge is not overwhelming. Yamanaka's lone win came in straight sets, showing he can beat Matsuda on a good day.
- Matsuda won 6-3 6-4 in June 2024.
- Matsuda won 6-0 6-2 in March 2023.
- Yamanaka won 6-4 6-1 in February 2023.
Yamanaka's first-serve percentage in his last 15 matches is 59.8%, and he wins only 48% of second-serve points. Matsuda returns well, winning 42.6% of return points.
Yamanaka's serve is a vulnerability, especially on second serves where he wins less than half the points. Matsuda's return game is above average for this level, so he should get many opportunities to break. If Yamanaka cannot improve his first-serve percentage, he will face constant pressure on his own service games.
- Yamanaka's first-serve in: 59.8% (last 15 matches).
- Yamanaka's second-serve points won: 48% (last 15 matches).
- Matsuda's return points won: 42.6% (last 15 matches).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Ryuki Matsuda

1.50fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Matsuda's superior recent form and H2H edge on hard courts give him the advantage.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Matsuda's superior recent form and H2H edge on hard courts give him the advantage.
- Last 15 overall record: Matsuda 73.3% (11-4) vs Yamanaka 46.7% (7-8)
- Last 15 hard-court record: Matsuda 73.3% (11-4) vs Yamanaka 46.2% (6-7)
- H2H: Matsuda leads 2-1, won last meeting 6-3 6-4 in 2024
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRyuki MatsudaEstimated chance62%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined recent match lengths and competitive H2H suggest a moderately high total games line.
- Yamanaka last 15 average games per match: 20.8 (312 games / 15 matches)
- Matsuda last 15 average games per match: 18.4 (276 games / 15 matches)
- H2H matches averaged 17.7 games, but both players' recent matches often exceed 21 games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets have often been competitive, supporting an over on the set total.
- Yamanaka last 15 first-set average: 9.5 games (based on parsed sets)
- Matsuda last 15 first-set average: 9.3 games
- Both players have multiple first sets with 10+ games in recent matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Matsuda's superior recent game-winning percentage suggests he can cover a small handicap.
- Matsuda last 15 games won percentage: 56.2% vs Yamanaka 49%
- Matsuda average games won per match: 10.3 vs Yamanaka 10.2
- H2H Matsuda won by 5 and 8 games in his two wins
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonRyuki Matsuda -2.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Matsuda's stronger recent set-winning rate suggests he is likely to take the opening set.
- Matsuda first-set win conversion career: 88% vs Yamanaka 85%
- Matsuda last 15 sets won: 70% vs Yamanaka 45.5%
- Matsuda won first set in 4 of last 5 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonRyuki MatsudaEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low tiebreak frequency in recent matches, making a tiebreak unlikely.
- Yamanaka last 15 tiebreaks: 2 in 15 matches (13%)
- Matsuda last 15 tiebreaks: 3 in 15 matches (20%)
- H2H matches had no tiebreaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Matsuda's low double fault rate helps keep the combined total under the line.
- Yamanaka last 15 double faults per match: 2.8
- Matsuda last 15 double faults per match: 1.3
- Combined average double faults per match: 4.1
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players' ace rates suggest a combined total around the line, with slight over lean.
- Yamanaka last 15 aces per match: 3.3
- Matsuda last 15 aces per match: 2.7
- Combined average aces per match: 6.0
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

1-2 (3 meetings)

L6-3 6-4Taiyo Yamanaka#830vRyuki Matsuda#764Jun 6, 2024

L6-0 6-2Taiyo Yamanaka#830vRyuki Matsuda#764Mar 2, 2023

W6-4 6-1Taiyo Yamanaka#830vRyuki Matsuda#764Feb 16, 2023

3 total meetings

Previous match context available

Taiyo Yamanaka

7W 8L

6-4 6-4#670Egor Agafonov

6-3 6-4#680Timofei Derepasko

6-4 6-4—Nikita Ianin

6-2 2-0 ret.#694Shinji Hazawa

6-3 6-2—Weiyi Kong

7-5 7-5#540Shunsuke Mitsui

6-3 6-7(1) 6-1—Sergey Petrov

6-4 7-6(5)—Andrei Kunitsyn

6-1 6-2#293Matthew Dellavedova

7-6(2) 6-2#522Hikaru Shiraishi

6-3 6-4#1909Ren Nakamura

6-3 6-3#460Moerani Bouzige

3-6 7-5 6-4#646Chase Ferguson

6-2 7-5#854Hoyoung Roh

6-2 2-6 6-4#646Chase Ferguson

Ryuki Matsuda

11W 4L

6-4 6-2—Minh Phat Nguyen

6-2 6-2—Yu Tanaka

6-3 7-6(5)#782Naoki Nakagawa

6-4 6-4#305Yanki Erel

6-2 6-4#540Shunsuke Mitsui

6-0 6-1#768Taisei Ichikawa

6-3 7-6(4)#567Hyeon Chung

6-3 6-0—Kuan-Shou Chen

6-3 7-6(4)—Chun-Chien Hou

6-2 6-3—Kuan-Huai Mao

6-7(5) 6-3 10-4#408Omar Jasika

6-3 6-2#268Yu Hsiou Hsu

3-0 ret.#528Sanhui Shin

6-4 6-2#1909Ren Nakamura

7-5 4-3 ret.—Chen-Yu Lu

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TYTaiyo YamanakaYamanaka

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Ryuki MatsudaMatsudaRM

Ryuki Matsuda carries the stronger recent form — Taiyo Yamanaka's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In15/15 · 13/1559.8%+3.9pp55.9%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/1568.6%+0.9pp69.5%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/1548.0%+5.6pp53.6%

Aces / Match15/15 · 13/153.3+0.62.7

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/152.81.5 fewer1.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/1538.5%+4.1pp42.6%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/1534.8%+6.8pp41.6%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/1556.6%+3.7pp60.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/1549.4%+2.6pp52.0%

Serve · 2–3

59.8%1st Serve In15/15 · 13/15+3.9pp55.9%

68.6%1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+0.9pp69.5%

48.0%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+5.6pp53.6%

3.3Aces / Match15/15 · 13/15+0.62.7

2.8Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/151.5 fewer1.3

Return · 0–1

38.5%Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+4.1pp42.6%

Pressure · 0–2

34.8%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/15+6.8pp41.6%

56.6%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/15+3.7pp60.3%

Points · 0–1

49.4%Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+2.6pp52.0%