United StatesTiburon - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Karue Sell #748Brazil0Michael Mmoh #181United States2

Sets 3-6 · 2-6Mon 14 Sept 2026, 23:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions2–433%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMichael Mmoh · 567 places

Karue Sell

Brazil

Sell, 32, resumed full-time professional competition in late 2023 after a near four-year hiatus. He reached his career-high No. 258 in November 2024.

Current ranking: #748
Peak ranking: #258 · 2024
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Michael Mmoh

United States

Former world No. 81, achieved in September 2023. The supplied current ranking is No. 181; ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #181
Peak ranking: #81 · 2023
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 16:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Mmoh is the favorite due to ranking and career hard-court record, but his recent form and low first-serve percentage make him vulnerable.

Sell's competitiveness and Mmoh's double-fault issues suggest a close match, so the over on total games and double faults are better betting angles than backing Mmoh at short odds.

Context

Mmoh, 28, is ranked No. 173 and has extensive hard-court experience with 212 career wins on the surface. Sell, 32, is ranked No. 748 and has played mostly lower-level events.
Mmoh's recent hard-court record is slightly better than Sell's, and his ranking advantage suggests he has faced stronger competition. However, both players have losing records in their last 15 matches overall, so neither arrives with strong momentum.
- Mmoh's last 12 hard-court matches: 6 wins, 6 losses (50%).
- Sell's last 11 hard-court matches: 5 wins, 6 losses (45.5%).
- Mmoh is ranked No. 173, Sell is ranked No. 748.
Sell has played only four clay matches in 2026, going 2-2. His career clay record is 29-31, and he has not played a hard-court match since August 2025.
Sell's lack of recent hard-court matches could leave him less sharp than Mmoh, who has played 12 hard-court matches in the same period. However, Sell's last hard-court results were mixed, so the impact is uncertain.
- Sell's 2026 clay record: 2 wins, 2 losses.
- Sell's last hard-court match was on August 6, 2025.
- Mmoh has played 12 hard-court matches in his last 15.
This match is on outdoor hard courts at the Tiburon Challenger 125, which suits Mmoh's stronger hard-court record and recent serve numbers. Sell's limited recent hard-court play adds uncertainty to his level.
- The 2026 tournament listing places the event in Tiburon, California, on outdoor hard courts from 14 to 20 September at Challenger 125 level.
ReportedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 16:00 · Europe/BucharestEntry List ATP Challenger Tiburon 2026canaltenis.com · 11 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Michael Mmoh

1.25fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Mmoh's higher ranking and stronger career hard-court record are offset by his recent struggles, making the 1.25 odds unattractive.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Mmoh's higher ranking, stronger hard-court career record, and slightly better recent hard-court serve numbers give him the edge in this outdoor hard-court Challenger match.
- Michael Mmoh ranking 173 vs Karue Sell ranking 748
- Mmoh last15 hard record 6-6 (50%), Sell last15 hard record 5-6 (45.5%)
- Mmoh career hard wins 212 vs Sell career hard wins 108
- Mmoh last15 first serve points won 71.5% vs Sell 68.9%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMichael MmohEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have competitive recent hard-court numbers and similar return stats, suggesting a close match likely to exceed 21.5 total games.
- Sell last15 average duration 123.2 minutes, Mmoh 114.4 minutes
- Sell last15 games won 51.6%, Mmoh 49.4%
- Both players have similar return points won (Sell 40.9%, Mmoh 38.7%)
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players holding serve reasonably well and neither dominating on return, the first set is likely to be tight and go over 9.5 games.
- Sell last15 first serve points won 68.9%, Mmoh 71.5%
- Sell last15 break points saved 56.3%, Mmoh 63.8%
- Both players have moderate return points won (Sell 40.9%, Mmoh 38.7%)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mmoh's stronger serve and break-point saving in recent hard-court matches should help him take the opening set, though Sell's high career first-set conversion adds uncertainty.
- Mmoh last15 first serve points won 71.5% vs Sell 68.9%
- Mmoh last15 break points saved 63.8% vs Sell 56.3%
- Sell last15 first set win conversion 92% (career)
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMichael MmohEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mmoh's high double fault rate on hard courts, combined with Sell's moderate rate, makes over 8.5 total double faults likely.
- Mmoh last15 double faults per match 6.2, Sell 2.9
- Mmoh last15 hard double faults per match 6.4
- Combined average double faults per match 9.1
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mmoh's strong ace rate on hard courts combined with Sell's moderate ace count makes over 8.5 total aces a reasonable expectation.
- Mmoh last15 aces per match 5.1, Sell 3.7
- Mmoh last15 hard aces per match 5.2
- Combined average aces per match 8.8
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance52%

Karue Sell

7W 8L

6-3 2-6 7-6(4)#645John Hallquist Lithen

5-7 7-5 6-0—Rafael Tosetto

6-3 6-4—Teodor Davidov

7-5 2-6 6-1#394Jack Kennedy

6-3 6-2#268Yu Hsiou Hsu

6-4 6-3#472Miguel Tobon

6-4 6-2#62Corentin Moutet

6-3 6-4#420Yosuke Watanuki

2-6 7-6(6) 7-6(4)#396Yuta Shimizu

7-6(3) 6-3#116Patrick Kypson

6-1 7-5#782Naoki Nakagawa

6-2 2-6 6-0#400Trevor Svajda

4-6 6-3 7-6(3)—Dominique Rolland

6-2 6-1#900Rudy Quan

6-0 6-2#857Isaiah Strode

Michael Mmoh

6W 9L

7-5 6-4#120Henrique Rocha

6-3 7-5#195Edas Butvilas

6-4 6-4#157Rei Sakamoto

6-4 6-2#196Harry Wendelken

7-5 6-4#97Benjamin Bonzi

6-3 6-4#268Yu Hsiou Hsu

7-6(7) 3-6 3-3 ret.—William Manning

7-6(3) 7-6(5)#396Yuta Shimizu

4-6 6-3 6-2#121Vilius Gaubas

7-6(4) 6-4#84Aleksandar Kovacevic

6-2 6-4#319Filippo Romano

6-2 6-4#222Colton Smith

1-6 6-1 6-2#403Justin Boulais

6-3 6-3#179Bernard Tomic

6-2 6-2#445Timo Legout

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KSKarue SellSell

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Michael MmohMmohMM

Karue Sell carries the stronger recent form — Michael Mmoh's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In60.2%+4.2pp56.0%

1st Serve Won68.9%+2.6pp71.5%

2nd Serve Won47.7%+1.8pp45.9%

Aces / Match3.7+1.45.1

Double Faults / Match2.93.3 fewer6.2

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.9%+2.2pp38.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted46.7%+4.4pp42.3%

Break Pts Saved56.3%+7.5pp63.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.5%+0.8pp49.7%

Serve · 3–2

60.2%1st Serve In+4.2pp56.0%

68.9%1st Serve Won+2.6pp71.5%

47.7%2nd Serve Won+1.8pp45.9%

3.7Aces / Match+1.45.1

2.9Double Faults / Match3.3 fewer6.2

Return · 1–0

40.9%Return Pts Won+2.2pp38.7%

Pressure · 1–1

46.7%Break Pts Converted+4.4pp42.3%

56.3%Break Pts Saved+7.5pp63.8%

Points · 1–0

50.5%Total Pts Won+0.8pp49.7%