PortugalWTA Caldas Da RainhaFinished

Predictions graded

Margaux Rouvroy #346France0Sofia Johnson #459United Kingdom2

Sets 4-6 · 2-6Sun 13 Sept 2026, 13:30 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions8–0100%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMargaux Rouvroy · 113 places

Margaux Rouvroy

France

Rouvroy, 25, is a right-hander. Her singles career high is No. 211, reached in September 2024.

Current ranking: #346
Peak ranking: #211 · 2024
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Sofia Johnson

United Kingdom

Johnson, 22, is a right-hander whose preferred surface is hard. Her singles career high is No. 454, reached in August 2026.

Current ranking: #459
Peak ranking: #454 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 03:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Sofia Johnson is a strong favorite over Margaux Rouvroy based on superior recent form, serve, and return stats.

Johnson's set dominance and Rouvroy's poor hard-court record point to a likely straight-sets win. Betting value lies in Johnson -3.5 games and under 20.5 total games, while the match winner odds are too short.

Context

Johnson, ranked 459, has been in excellent form on hard courts recently, winning 11 of her last 15 matches on the surface. Rouvroy, ranked 346, has struggled overall with only 5 wins in her last 15 matches.
Johnson's recent hard-court success includes wins over players ranked inside the top 200, while Rouvroy's only hard-court win in her last three attempts came against a lower-ranked opponent. This form gap suggests Johnson enters with a clear edge in confidence and match rhythm on this surface. However, Rouvroy's overall ranking is higher, and she has shown the ability to compete against stronger players in the past.
- Johnson's last 15 hard-court record: 11-4 (73.3% win rate).
- Rouvroy's last 15 overall record: 5-10 (33.3% win rate).
- Rouvroy's last 3 hard-court matches: 1 win, 2 losses.
- Johnson's recent wins include victories over Kayla Cross (ranked 162) and Harmony Tan (ranked 216).
Rouvroy's recent hard-court serve numbers are below her career averages, while Johnson's serve has been a reliable weapon in her recent matches.
Rouvroy's low first-serve points won percentage indicates she is not getting enough free points on serve, which could put pressure on her service games. Johnson's stronger serve and return numbers suggest she can control rallies from the start. However, Rouvroy's sample size on hard courts is small (3 matches), so her numbers may improve with more matches.
- Rouvroy hard-court last 3: first-serve points won 53.2%, second-serve points won 42.3%.
- Johnson hard-court last 15: first-serve points won 62.3%, second-serve points won 46.4%.
- Rouvroy's career first-serve points won: 60%, second-serve points won: 41%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Sofia Johnson

1.15fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 87%

0.0ppshort

Johnson's superior recent form and serve/return structural edge on hard courts make her a strong favorite.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Johnson's superior recent form and serve/return structural edge on hard courts make her a strong favorite.
- Sofia Johnson last 15 overall record 11-4 (73.3%), Margaux Rouvroy 5-10 (33.3%)
- Johnson last 15 total points won 53.2% vs Rouvroy 47.5%
- Johnson last 15 return points won 50.9% vs Rouvroy 46.2%
- Johnson last 15 first serve points won 62.3% vs Rouvroy 54.2%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSofia JohnsonEstimated chance72%

Games4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Johnson's ability to win efficiently and Rouvroy's recent straight-set losses suggest a relatively short match.
- Johnson last 15 average games per match 20.5 (307 games / 15 matches)
- Rouvroy last 15 average games per match 21.4 (321 games / 15 matches)
- Johnson won 6 of last 15 matches in straight sets with 12 or fewer games
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 20.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Johnson's superior game-winning percentage and ability to win by comfortable margins support a -3.5 game handicap.
- Johnson last 15 games won 58.6% vs Rouvroy 43.9%
- Johnson last 15 average games per match 20.5 vs Rouvroy 21.4
- Johnson won 6 of last 15 matches by 6+ games
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonSofia Johnson -3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Johnson's strong first-set performances often result in fewer games, supporting under 9.5 in set 1.
- Johnson last 15 first set average games 8.9
- Rouvroy last 15 first set average games 9.3
- Johnson won first set in 10 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Johnson's ability to close out matches efficiently supports under 9.5 games in set 2.
- Johnson last 15 second set average games 8.7
- Rouvroy last 15 second set average games 9.1
- Johnson won second set in 9 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Johnson's dominant set-winning percentage and strong first-set conversion rate support her taking the opener.
- Johnson last 15 sets won 68.6% vs Rouvroy 36.1%
- Johnson career first set win conversion 89%
- Johnson last 15 hard court record 11-4
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonSofia JohnsonEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Johnson's superior set-winning rate and Rouvroy's frequent straight-set losses make a 2-0 Johnson win likely.
- Johnson last 15 sets won 68.6%
- Rouvroy last 15 sets won 36.1%
- Johnson won 8 of last 15 matches in straight sets
BetBugs · Set BettingwonSofia Johnson 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Johnson's dominance in sets reduces the likelihood of a tiebreak, as she often wins comfortably.
- Johnson last 15 sets won 68.6%
- Rouvroy last 15 sets won 36.1%
- Johnson won 8 of last 15 matches in straight sets
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 1.5 aces per match, making over 2.5 total aces plausible.
- Johnson last 15 aces per match 1.6
- Rouvroy last 15 aces per match 1.3
- Combined average aces per match 2.9
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 4 double faults per match, making over 7.5 total double faults likely.
- Johnson last 15 double faults per match 3.9
- Rouvroy last 15 double faults per match 4.0
- Combined average double faults per match 7.9
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Rouvroy's recent form and hard-court numbers are poor, making her an unlikely upset despite the high odds.

Margaux Rouvroy

5W 10L

6-3 6-4#300Matilde Jorge

6-4 6-0#439Hannah Klugman

6-4 4-6 6-3#179Yeon Woo Ku

7-6(4) 6-4#270Sofya Lansere

6-2 6-4#247Alice Rame

0-6 6-3 7-6(4)#150Lola Radivojevic

6-4 3-6 7-5#495Ekaterina Kazionova

6-1 6-1—Diana Maria Ilie

6-3 2-6 6-1#371Lea Nilsson

6-4 6-1#332Sohyun Park

6-1 6-1#343Dalila Jakupovic

4-6 6-3 6-3#219Alevtina Ibragimova

3-6 6-3 6-0#356Jenny Lim

6-4 6-3#60Ashlyn Krueger

6-1 6-4#215Erika Andreeva

Sofia Johnson

11W 4L

6-1 1-6 6-3#300Matilde Jorge

5-7 6-3 7-5#162Kayla Cross

6-2 6-2#230Xinyu Gao

4-6 6-2 6-2#329Oceane Dodin

6-3 6-4#696Mary Lewis

6-1 6-0#895Isabella Marton

6-4 6-0#174Linda Fruhvirtova

6-3 6-4#192Anastasia Gasanova

7-6(7) 7-6(2)#686Celia Cervino Ruiz

6-2 6-1#216Harmony Tan

4-6 6-0 6-2#748Jenna Defalco

6-2 6-1#745Jo-Yee Chan

5-7 6-1 6-3#169Storm Hunter

6-1 6-2#534Karman Kaur Thandi

6-3 6-4#248Caroline Dolehide

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MRMargaux RouvroyRouvroy

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Sofia JohnsonJohnsonSJ

Sofia Johnson carries the stronger recent form — Margaux Rouvroy's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In67.1%+8.2pp58.9%

1st Serve Won54.2%+8.1pp62.3%

2nd Serve Won37.8%+8.6pp46.4%

Aces / Match1.3+0.31.6

Double Faults / Match4.0—3.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won46.2%+4.7pp50.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted52.8%+3.1pp49.7%

Break Pts Saved47.0%+7.9pp54.9%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won47.5%+5.7pp53.2%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

67.1%1st Serve In+8.2pp58.9%

54.2%1st Serve Won+8.1pp62.3%

37.8%2nd Serve Won+8.6pp46.4%

1.3Aces / Match+0.31.6

4.0Double Faults / Match—3.9

Return · 0–1

46.2%Return Pts Won+4.7pp50.9%

Pressure · 1–1

52.8%Break Pts Converted+3.1pp49.7%

47.0%Break Pts Saved+7.9pp54.9%

Points · 0–1

47.5%Total Pts Won+5.7pp53.2%

Margaux Rouvroy

Sofia Johnson

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Sofia Johnson

Result1 of 1 landed

Games4 of 4 landed

Sets2 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Margaux Rouvroy @ 5.50

Margaux Rouvroy

Sofia Johnson

Stat Battle