ItalyBiella - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Lorenzo BeraldoItaly0Dimitris Sakellaridis #561Greece2

Sets 5-7 · 3-6Sun 13 Sept 2026, 12:00 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions4–267%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Lorenzo Beraldo

Italy

Beraldo is listed as right-handed with a two-handed backhand. The required profile checks did not identify verified age or singles-ranking data.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Dimitris Sakellaridis

Greece

Sakellaridis, 20, is right-handed with a two-handed backhand. He reached his career-high singles ranking of No. 555 in August 2026.

Current ranking: #561
Peak ranking: #555 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 15:03 · Europe/Bucharest

Sakellaridis holds a slight edge over Beraldo due to better recent form and return stats, but the match winner odds offer no value.

The best bets are over 21.5 total games and over 2.5 sets, as both players tend to play close, extended matches.

Context

Sakellaridis, ranked 561, has a career win rate near 50% and has played over 450 matches, mostly on hard courts but with solid clay experience.
In his last 15 matches, Sakellaridis has won 69.1% of first-serve points and 41.2% of return points, while Beraldo has won 60.6% and 39.9% respectively. Sakellaridis also saves break points at a higher rate (59.8% vs 43.8%). These differences could matter in tight games, though Beraldo's higher first-serve percentage (69.5% vs 59.7%) may help him avoid pressure.
- Sakellaridis: first-serve points won 69.1%, return points won 41.2%, break points saved 59.8% in last 15 matches.
- Beraldo: first-serve points won 60.6%, return points won 39.9%, break points saved 43.8% in last 15 matches.
- Beraldo's first-serve percentage is 69.5% compared to Sakellaridis' 59.7%.
Beraldo is an Italian player with no ATP ranking, and his career has been almost entirely on clay, where he has a 45% win rate.
In his last five matches, Beraldo lost to Matic Dimic, Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini, and Pierluigi Basile, with the latter two losses coming in straight sets. His only wins were against unranked opponents. This suggests he may struggle against Sakellaridis, who has a similar overall record but has shown better recent form on hard courts.
- Beraldo's last five results: L, W, W, L, L (all on clay).
- Loss to Pierluigi Basile (ranked 562) was 6-1 6-3.
- Wins came against unranked players Uros Manasijevic and Felix Romeo.
Sakellaridis is a 25-year-old Greek player who has been active on both hard and clay courts this season.
Sakellaridis played on September 9, 10, and 11, with his last match going three sets and lasting over two hours. Beraldo's last match was on September 8, giving him more rest. This workload difference could be a factor if the match goes long, though Sakellaridis has shown he can handle frequent play.
- Sakellaridis played three matches between September 9-11, including a three-set loss on September 11.
- Beraldo's last match was on September 8, giving him five days of rest before this match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Dimitris Sakellaridis

1.29fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Sakellaridis's superior return game and break point conversion, combined with his greater experience, give him a slight edge despite Beraldo's better career clay win percentage.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Sakellaridis's superior return game and break point conversion, combined with his greater experience, give him a slight edge despite Beraldo's better career clay win percentage.
- Sakellaridis has a career clay win percentage of 83/459 (18.1%) vs Beraldo's 29/64 (45.3%), but Sakellaridis has far more experience with 459 career matches.
- Sakellaridis last 15 overall record is 8-7 (53.3%) with 50.4% total points won; Beraldo is 8-7 (53.3%) with 48.2% total points won.
- Sakellaridis has a higher return points won (41.2% vs 39.9%) and break point conversion (48.5% vs 42.9%) in last 15.
- Beraldo's recent form is mixed with losses to unranked players; Sakellaridis has wins over higher-ranked opponents like Petr Nesterov (rank 301).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDimitris SakellaridisEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
The combined average games per match for both players exceeds 21.5, and their similar competitive levels suggest a longer match.
- Beraldo's last 15 matches average 95.3 minutes and 21.6 games per match (162 games / 15 matches).
- Sakellaridis's last 15 matches average 97.3 minutes and 22.6 games per match (176 games / 15 matches).
- Both players have similar games won percentages around 50%, indicating competitive matches.
- Recent matches for both have often gone to three sets or close two-set scores.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be closely contested, with both players capable of holding serve, pushing the total games over 9.5.
- Beraldo's recent first sets have varied, with scores like 6-3, 6-4, 3-6, 6-0.
- Sakellaridis's recent first sets include 6-4, 4-6, 6-2, 3-6.
- Both players have first serve percentages around 60-70%, leading to competitive games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.60
The read
The closeness of the matchup and both players' tendency to go to deciding sets make a three-set match more likely than not.
- Beraldo has a deciding set win percentage of 56% and has played several three-set matches recently.
- Sakellaridis has a deciding set win percentage of 54% and also has recent three-set matches.
- Both players have similar overall records and competitive stats, suggesting a close match.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sakellaridis's stronger first serve and higher first set conversion rate suggest he is more likely to take the opening set.
- Sakellaridis has a first set win conversion of 87% career, indicating he often starts strong.
- Beraldo's first set win conversion is 78%, slightly lower.
- In last 15 matches, Sakellaridis has a higher first serve points won (69.1% vs 60.6%).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonDimitris SakellaridisEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have relatively high double fault rates, especially Sakellaridis, making over 5.5 total double faults likely.
- Sakellaridis averages 4.1 double faults per match in last 15, with 3.6 on clay.
- Beraldo averages 2.5 double faults per match in last 15.
- Combined average double faults per match is 6.6, above the 5.5 line.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sakellaridis's ace count is the main driver; if he reaches his average, the total could exceed 5.5, though Beraldo's low ace count makes this a low-confidence pick.
- Sakellaridis averages 3.1 aces per match in last 15, with 4.0 on hard and 2.7 on clay.
- Beraldo averages only 0.7 aces per match in last 15.
- Combined average aces per match is around 3.8, but Sakellaridis's higher ace rate could push total over 5.5 if he serves well.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Lorenzo Beraldo

8W 7L

3-6 6-3 10-7—Matic Dimic

6-3 6-0—Uros Manasijevic

6-4 6-2—Felix Romeo

6-2 6-2—Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini

6-1 6-3#562Pierluigi Basile

7-6(1) 7-5—Nicola Rispoli

4-6 6-4 10-8—Gregorio Biondolillo

6-0 6-2—Pietro Romeo Scomparin

6-2 6-1—Federico Bove

6-2 1-6 10-8—Laurens Harnoth Manrubia

6-0 7-6(3)—Raffaele Ciurnelli

6-3 2-0 ret.#692Marc Majdandzic

3-6 6-0 6-3#562Pierluigi Basile

5-7 6-4 6-2#585Martin Van Der Meerschen

6-0 6-3—Gilberto Ravasio

Dimitris Sakellaridis

8W 7L

6-4 4-6 6-4#601Leonardo Rossi

4-6 7-6(2) 6-0—Antonio Marigliano

6-2 7-5—Giammarco Gandolfi

6-3 6-1#648Bruno Fernandez

3-6 6-1 6-2#886Iiro Vasa

6-4 6-3—Tim Hammes

3-6 6-1 6-2—Alessandro Hunziker

3-6 6-3 6-4#629Oleksandr Ovcharenko

6-2 6-1#807Gian Luca Tanner

6-3 6-4#443Matthew William Donald

6-3 6-4#861Nicolas Parizzia

6-7(3) 7-6(4) 6-3#301Petr Nesterov

6-4 6-4#524Aziz Dougaz

6-4 6-3#896Younes Lalami Laaroussi

6-3 7-6(4)#494Niels Mcdonald

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LBLorenzo BeraldoBeraldo

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Dimitris SakellaridisSakellaridisDS

Dimitris Sakellaridis carries the stronger recent form — Lorenzo Beraldo's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In12/15 · 15/1569.5%+9.8pp59.7%

1st Serve Won12/15 · 15/1560.6%+8.5pp69.1%

2nd Serve Won12/15 · 15/1547.4%+3.5pp43.9%

Aces / Match12/15 · 15/150.7+2.43.1

Double Faults / Match12/15 · 15/152.51.6 fewer4.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won12/15 · 15/1539.9%+1.3pp41.2%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted12/15 · 15/1542.9%+5.6pp48.5%

Break Pts Saved12/15 · 15/1543.8%+16.0pp59.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won12/15 · 15/1548.2%+2.2pp50.4%

Serve · 3–2

69.5%1st Serve In12/15 · 15/15+9.8pp59.7%

60.6%1st Serve Won12/15 · 15/15+8.5pp69.1%

47.4%2nd Serve Won12/15 · 15/15+3.5pp43.9%

0.7Aces / Match12/15 · 15/15+2.43.1

2.5Double Faults / Match12/15 · 15/151.6 fewer4.1

Return · 0–1

39.9%Return Pts Won12/15 · 15/15+1.3pp41.2%

Pressure · 0–2

42.9%Break Pts Converted12/15 · 15/15+5.6pp48.5%

43.8%Break Pts Saved12/15 · 15/15+16.0pp59.8%

Points · 0–1

48.2%Total Pts Won12/15 · 15/15+2.2pp50.4%

Lorenzo Beraldo

Dimitris Sakellaridis

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 21.5

Over 2.5

Dimitris Sakellaridis

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 2 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Lorenzo Beraldo

Dimitris Sakellaridis

Stat Battle