FranceRennes - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Kenny de Schepper #850France2Alberto Barroso Campos #635Spain1

Sets 6-7 · 7-6 · 7-5Sun 13 Sept 2026, 13:20 Predictions gradedQ1I.hard

Predictions6–186%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlberto Barroso Campos · 215 places

Kenny De Schepper

France

De Schepper, 39, is the left-hander in this matchup. He reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 62 in April 2014; hard courts have been listed as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #850
Peak ranking: #62 · 2014
Current age: 39
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 203 cm

Alberto Barroso Campos

Spain

Barroso Campos, 30, is the right-hander in this matchup. He reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 316 in August 2024; ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #635
Peak ranking: #316 · 2024
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 03:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Alberto Barroso Campos is the value pick at 2.60 odds, with a 55% estimated win probability and a 16.5-point edge over the implied 38.5%.

The match is likely to be competitive, with over 21.5 total games and over 9.5 games in the first set as medium-confidence plays. Other markets are low confidence and should be avoided.

Context

De Schepper, 35, is a left-hander with a one-handed backhand and has spent most of his career on clay and hard courts.
His only indoor hard match in the last 15 was a straight-set loss to Clement Chidekh, and his career indoor hard record is below .500. Barroso Campos has also lost both indoor hard matches this year, so neither player has a clear edge on this surface.
- De Schepper's last 15 indoor hard record: 0-1, with only 29.4% games won.
- Barroso Campos is 0-2 on indoor hard in 2026.
- De Schepper's career indoor hard record is 245-245.
Barroso Campos, 28, is a right-hander with a two-handed backhand and has a stronger career win percentage on hard courts.
He beat De Schepper in three sets in February 2025 and also won in 2021, while De Schepper's only win came in 2020. The most recent meeting is a relevant indicator, but all matches were close and on hard courts.
- Barroso Campos won 7-6(5) 3-6 6-4 in February 2025.
- Barroso Campos also won 6-4 7-6(9) in April 2021.
- De Schepper won 6-4 7-5 in February 2020.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Barroso Campos has a recent H2H edge and stronger hard-court career numbers, though both are in mediocre form.
- H2H: Barroso Campos leads 2-1, winning last two meetings (2025 and 2021).
- Barroso Campos career hard-court win rate 60.6% vs de Schepper 52.9% overall.
- Barroso Campos last 15 hard-court record 5-7, de Schepper 1-2 on hard and 0-1 on indoor hard.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAlberto Barroso CamposEstimated chance55%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 21.5 games, and their H2H suggests competitive sets.
- De Schepper last 15 average 22.1 games per match, Barroso Campos 22.5.
- Both players have similar games won percentages around 48-49%.
- H2H 2025 went three sets with 32 total games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first-set averages and H2H tiebreak indicate a competitive opening set.
- De Schepper last 15 first-set average 9.9 games, Barroso Campos 9.7.
- Both players have first-serve points won around 65-69%.
- H2H 2025 first set went to tiebreak (13 games).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been close to the line, with both players capable of holding serve.
- De Schepper last 15 second-set average 9.8 games, Barroso Campos 9.6.
- Both players have similar second-serve points won percentages (42-46%).
- H2H 2025 second set had 9 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Slight edge in first-set conversion and recent H2H first-set result supports Barroso Campos.
- Barroso Campos first-set win conversion 88% career vs de Schepper 86%.
- Barroso Campos last 15 first-serve points won 68.8%, de Schepper 65.6%.
- H2H 2025: Barroso Campos won first set 7-6(5).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAlberto Barroso CamposEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined ace averages are near the line, with de Schepper's serve potential pushing it over.
- De Schepper last 15 aces per match 3.8, Barroso Campos 2.0.
- Combined average aces per match 5.8, close to line.
- De Schepper's height (203cm) and lefty serve can produce aces on indoor hard.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault averages exceed the line, and both players struggle on second serve.
- De Schepper last 15 double faults per match 3.5, Barroso Campos 3.7.
- Combined average double faults per match 7.2.
- Both players have second-serve points won below 50%.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

1-2 (3 meetings)

L7-6(5) 3-6 6-4Kenny de Schepper#850vAlberto Barroso Campos#635Feb 5, 2025

L6-4 7-6(9)Kenny de Schepper#850vAlberto Barroso Campos#635Apr 28, 2021

W6-4 7-5Kenny de Schepper#850vAlberto Barroso Campos#635Feb 26, 2020

3 total meetings

Kenny de Schepper

6W 9L

6-3 6-2#185Clement Chidekh

6-4 7-6(1)#409Robin Bertrand

7-6(6) 6-3#847Stefan Seifert

6-2 6-4#429Maxime Chazal

7-5 6-2#600Pierre Delage

6-2 7-5—Lenny Couturier

5-7 7-5 6-3—Samuele Seghetti

7-5 6-3—Massimo Pizzigoni

2-6 6-4 7-6(4)#523Alexander Donski

7-5 6-3—Nicolas Ifi

6-3 6-2—Elijah Sanogo

5-7 6-4 6-4#444Denis Yevseyev

7-6(3) 6-4#573Kai Wehnelt

6-1 6-2#177Max Alcala Gurri

6-3 6-4#278Marvin Moeller

Alberto Barroso Campos

6W 9L

6-1 7-5#389Jonas Forejtek

7-5 6-2#894Andrea Colombo

7-6(2) 7-6(4)#887Pavlos Tsitsipas

6-2 6-1—Alexander Bravo

6-4 6-7(4) 6-4#355Tiago Pereira

6-1 6-2—Salvador Monteiro

6-2 7-5#551Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-7(1) 6-3 6-3#422Massimo Giunta

6-3 6-3#185Clement Chidekh

6-3 6-4#599Guillaume Dalmasso

6-2 7-5#360Lui Maxted

3-6 6-4 6-4—Diogo Morais

7-5 7-5#296Carl Emil Overbeck

7-6(4) 6-2—Matthias Uwe Kask

3-6 6-3 6-3—Pablo Perez Ramos

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KSKenny de SchepperSchepper

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Alberto Barroso CamposCamposAC

Kenny de Schepper carries the stronger recent form — Alberto Barroso Campos's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In69.4%+10.1pp59.3%

1st Serve Won65.6%+3.2pp68.8%

2nd Serve Won42.6%+3.2pp45.8%

Aces / Match3.8+1.82.0

Double Faults / Match3.5—3.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won39.7%+0.8pp38.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted48.3%+4.8pp43.5%

Break Pts Saved48.4%+3.2pp51.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won49.2%—49.1%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

69.4%1st Serve In+10.1pp59.3%

65.6%1st Serve Won+3.2pp68.8%

42.6%2nd Serve Won+3.2pp45.8%

3.8Aces / Match+1.82.0

3.5Double Faults / Match—3.7

Return · 1–0

39.7%Return Pts Won+0.8pp38.9%

Pressure · 1–1

48.3%Break Pts Converted+4.8pp43.5%

48.4%Break Pts Saved+3.2pp51.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.2%Total Pts Won—49.1%